Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson August 11-21, 2023.
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The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson August 11-21, 2023.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 11, 1:51 PM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Contending with another bout of sctd convection this aftn, mainly acrs southern and eastern AR. The activity is occurring in the vcnty of a stalled fntl bndry that stretched acrs SW AR, along with another SWT tracking thru the region. Mid aftn temps ranged fm the mid 80s to the mid 90s, with heat indices ranging fm the mid 90s to arnd 105 degrees. The aforementioned bndry rmns stalled thanks to a broad upper rdg axis that extended fm central TX, eastward acrs the Gulf, providing a NW flow aloft acrs the FA. Additional convection is expected to organize to our NW into this evening, eventually affecting NW AR later tngt into Sat mrng before weakening. Heading into Sun/Sun night, the aforementioned upper rdg is progged to expand sloly northward. This wl flatten the flow pattern ovr much of the Mid-South, with the focus for convection confined to north AR. Hot and humid conds wl prevail over the weekend. High temps on Sat wl be in the 90s. Wl go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for most areas Sat aftn, with an Excessive Heat Warning for parts of the Delta region over SE AR. Reaching criteria acrs parts of N and NE AR Sat aftn still in doubt due to cloud cover and lingering rain chcs. Additional headlines wl be needed Sun as highs will be a few degrees higher in most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 An upper trough/Low will deepen and expand over the north-central U.S., Great Lakes and Midwest region Monday. The upper cyclonic flow will extend southward into the forecast area, weakening and diverting the upper high south of the forecast area. This upper low and surface storm system will move toward the Great Lakes region early Monday, with a trailing cold front that extends southwestward into the south-central U.S. The cold front will move across the CWA Monday. Prior to cold FROPA, slight rain chances are expected, mainly across northern portions of the CWA. High temperatures Monday will range from the lower 80s to near 100, with the highest temperatures expected across the SE, prior to cold FROPA. By Monday night, temperatures will drop to the lower 60s to lower 70s. By Tuesday, the weakening trough will shift into eastern portions of the U.S., and the upper high will build and expand across much of the southwest and south-central U.S. Surface high pressure will expand across much of the central CONUS (including our CWA) through next week, as the storm system and associated cold front continue to track eastward. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to mid 60s. Through the middle to end of next week, another strong upper wave will dig into the same general portions of north-central, Midwest, Great Lakes regions. The difference between this pattern and the earlier one will be the upper high over the western U.S. holding strong, maintaining NW upper flow across the forecast area. The storm system will track eastward across southern Canada. Its associated cold front will move more southward than eastward across the CWA by the end of next week, as high pressure builds into the area from the north. By the end of the period, highs will be back to the mid 80s to mid 90s, with low temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Beyond this period, the upper high looks to shift eastward and expand across much of the central CONUS, with much more influence and subsidence impacting the LZK area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Ongoing convection wl affect mainly the terminal sites acrs S AR thru the aftn, with TEMPO groups included for MVFR/IFR conds. Otherwise, VFR conds wl be noted elsewhere this aftn and areawide thru the rest of the PD. Upstream convection could impact N AR late tngt into Sat mrng. Due to the contd uncertainties with trends, opted to go with PROB30 groups for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 75 93 75 94 / 20 30 30 30 Camden AR 75 95 75 98 / 0 10 0 0 Harrison AR 73 91 72 92 / 30 40 40 30 Hot Springs AR 77 98 77 98 / 0 10 10 10 Little Rock AR 78 98 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 Monticello AR 79 97 78 98 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 75 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 Mountain Home AR 73 92 72 92 / 30 40 40 40 Newport AR 75 92 75 94 / 20 20 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 77 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 Russellville AR 76 96 75 97 / 10 20 20 20 Searcy AR 75 96 74 96 / 10 20 20 20 Stuttgart AR 78 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>064-103-112-113-121>123- 130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313- 340-341. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>046-052>056-062-063-066>068-113- 121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-237-238-240-241. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ047- 057-064-065-069. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...44
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230- 237-238-240-241-313-340-341-121000- Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence- Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry- Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark- Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln- Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest- Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations- Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County- Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County- Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County- Polk County Lower Elevations- Central and Eastern Montgomery County- Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations- Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations- Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations- Van Buren County Higher Elevations- Southern and Eastern Logan County- Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest- Northern Polk County Higher Elevations- Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations- Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations- Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations- Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations- 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today mainly across central and southern sections of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the north tonight. While a strong storm can not be discounted, widespread severe weather is not expected. Hot and humid conditions are back in place with an excessive heat warning in effect for parts of the south. Elsewhere, a heat advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Heat index values will be greater than 105 degrees for all of the state and over 110 degrees across the south. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through early next week but overall severe weather chances appear low otherwise. Hot and humid conditions will resume by late this week through early next week, with heat index values around the area likely reaching 105 degrees or greater again, with another storm system set to move into the region on Monday, bringing the next widespread chance for rain and storms. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson August 11-21, 2023.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1131257.