Complex of showers and thunderstorms moved eastward across central Arizona in the early morning hours south of the Mogollon Rim. Another wave of low pressure moved across Arizona for the second day in a row.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Complex of showers and thunderstorms moved eastward across central Arizona in the early morning hours south of the Mogollon Rim. Another wave of low pressure moved across Arizona for the second day in a row. Low level moisture transport resulted organized convection along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 13, 9:45 AM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 945 AM MST Wed Sep 13 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Drier weather will develop by Friday and continue over the weekend, however, isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Temperatures remain seasonable, with generally light winds. && .DISCUSSION...Moisture and instability continue to be present across Arizona, especially central Arizona. This moisture is a combination of several sources, former Hurricane/TS Jova continues to inject some mid-level moisture and is responsible for initiating this convection a few days ago. Also, there remains residual Monsoon moisture south of the Mogollon Rim and over the deserts, as well as recycled moisture and ground moisture from days of activity. This moisture will interact with cool temperatures aloft, much of our CWA is around -10C, which makes up for dwindling PW values by providing instability. There are also a series of weak troughs in the eastern Great Basin that will provide occasional lift through Friday, before a ridge sets up next weekend. We expect a fairly active day today as a result, especially south of the I-40 corridor, where the deeper moisture exists. By no means are we ruling anywhere out, all zones carry at least scattered coverage today. The 12Z KFGZ sounding has some potential for isolated severe and training of cells may lead to isolated flooding issues. On Thursday, we start to see some decrease in activity as PW values continue to fade, however, enough dynamics and instability remains for scattered coverage, isolates stronger cells. Similar trends on Friday, but still not enough to remove all activity. Morning grids/forecasts look good, no updates. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF Package...VFR for most areas and the majority of the time frame, except in and near convective activity. Convective activity may cause brief MVFR. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA with ISOLD +TSRA today, especially AFT 19Z-20Z, fading coverage AFT 03Z. Sfc winds generally light and from the SW, outside of storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will stick around today and tomorrow. Gusty outflow winds from storms will be possible, with southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. Friday through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this period, but generally, expect drier and warmer conditions will develop through the weekend. Westerly winds 5 to 15 mph Friday, before shifting southwesterly Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 177 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:02 UTC.
3 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from a thunderstorm caused flooding with debris flows over Highway 89 near mile marker 483. The highway was closed in both directions for about 30 minutes.
Quarter sized hail (one inch in diameter), very heavy rain, and local flooding was reported in the Cottonwood area.
The grave gauge on the Verde River at Clarksdale showed a rapid 3 foot rise.
Law Enforcement reported that the Big Chino Wash flooded Big Springs Ranch Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1131450, 1131448, 1131451, 1131449.