Wildfire in Arizona, June 16 to 23, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
259 AM MST Fri Jun 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with typical mid June heat. Breezy to locally
windy most afternoons through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona remains between strong high
pressure to our southeast and weak troughiness through much of the
Intermountain West. The enhanced southwesterly gradient between
these features will be enough for breezy to locally windy at the
surface today, with fire weather concerns as outlined below.
Otherwise, near average heights and thicknesses with typical June
heat into next week. Ensemble mean height anomalies suggest
strong high pressure over central and northern Mexico through at
least the middle of next week.

The eastern Pacific tropics are heating up south of Mexico, with
multiple waves from Nicaragua westward. For the time being, any
additional tropical development or enhancement will remain well
south and southwest of Mexico with the afore mentioned ridge in a
solid blocking position.

It should be noted, however, that HREF ensemble means are showing
solid positive trends for 60 degree dewpoints and 1.5 inch
precipitable water values through Sinaloa over the next 48 hours.
That could eventually become important as the ridge weakens and
reconsolidates next week. We're still only talking about trying to
get things established in Mexico at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 17/12Z.
SCT OCNL BKN clouds AOA 12k-16k ft AGL. SFC winds light this
morning, after 16/17Z becoming SWLY 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35
kts. Winds diminishing after 17/03Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry into next week, with Min RH values in the
single digits in valley locations and between 10-20 percent in the
mountains. Gusty afternoon winds are expected each day through
early next week. For today, expect 20-foot southwest to west winds
of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph in the lower deserts, with 20-25
mph and gusts of 35-40 mph from Tucson eastward. These winds are
resulting in critical fire weather conditions, with a Red Flag
Warning Friday from noon through 7 PM for Fire Weather Zones 151,
152, 153 and 154 excluding the Alpine Ranger District where the
fuels aren't quite there yet. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible especially near the New Mexico border
Saturday and Sunday but later shifts will reevaluate the need for
any fire weather headlines.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MST this evening for
AZZ151>154.

&&

Meyer

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