High pressure centered over eastern Arizona and New Mexico brought seasonal moisture into eastern sections of Arizona. Some showers and thunderstorms developed that produced locally heavy rain.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
High pressure centered over eastern Arizona and New Mexico brought seasonal moisture into eastern sections of Arizona. Some showers and thunderstorms developed that produced locally heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 2:34 PM MST, 5 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 234 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease and move east of Flagstaff through the end of the week, with dry conditions this weekend. Temperatures will steadily rise into the weekend, with widespread hot to dangerous temperatures across Arizona. Storm chances look to return for next week, but temperatures will remain hot. && .DISCUSSION...Rest of today into tonight...Ongoing showers and storms are located over the Whites and southern Mogollon Rim. WIth limited moisture with the high shifting, activity north of where it's currently located isn't expected for the remainder of the day, outside of some isolated showers. Overall storm progression is very slow, so an isolated minor flooding threat will persist around the Whites into this evening. Once again, leftover cloud cover from today's showers and storms will hold temperatures up overnight. Tomorrow through end of the week...as the high shifts, precip chances will continue to drop and become confined primarily over the Whites. The high's shift, combined with drier conditions will allow for temperatures to continue to increase as we near the weekend. For that reason, heat advisories have been added to accompany the heat warnings that are in effect. By Friday, even higher elevation locations will start to warm into the 90s...which coincides with areas where many don't have AC. This weekend...temperatures will reach their max over the weekend with Sunday looking like the hottest day right now. Most of Arizona will be hitting triple figures, with many even hitting 110 degrees. Higher elevation locations that typically don't hit 90 often will be warming well into the 90s with Flagstaff forecast to hit 95 degrees, just 2 degrees shy of the all-time record. Next week...High pressure will start to settle back into a more favorable position Sunday into next week with POPs project to quickly ramp back up Monday into Tuesday next week. Despite the clouds and rain chances, it does take some time to bring temperatures down with temperatures not notably decreasing until Tuesday. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF Package...VFR is forecast through the entire TAF cycle. Westerly winds of 10 and 15 knots, with gusts as great as 20 knots are forecast this afternoon. There remains a 20% to 30% chance for SHRA INVOF FLG, SEZ, and INW this afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds in excess of 30 knots are the main hazards. Variable winds under 5 knots are probable. SHRA chances diminish to under 20% for Thursday afternoon. Variable winds under 5 knots will become more westerly through the day with speeds largely around 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Daily shower and storm coverage will continue to decrease Thursday and Friday, becoming confined to the Whites. Temperatures will be increasing and RHs will be dropping: min RHs for most by Friday will be in the low teens to single digits. Winds remain westerly each day with gusts 20-25 mph. Saturday through Monday...20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain for the White Mountains area each afternoon. Temperatures continue to increase with very hot temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday with even high elevation areas warming into the mid to upper 90s. Widespread single-digit min RHs will occur. Shower and storm chances start to increase again Monday and spread north along the Mogollon Rim. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ004-006>008-011>018-037-038-040. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-037. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006. Heat Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Sunday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ009-010-039. && PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...Bain FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023
AZZ014-017-018-122230-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Northern Gila
County-White Mountains-
255 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila, Apache and
Navajo Counties through 330 PM MST...
At 255 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Fork, or 19 miles south of Show Low, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Springerville, Eagar, North Fork, Lyman Lake State Park, Whiteriver,
Fort Apache Reservation, Los Burros Campground, Mcnary, Lyman Lake,
and Becker Lake.
This includes the following highways...
State Route 373 between mile markers 386 and 387.
State Route 273 between mile markers 378 and 380.
State Route 260 between mile markers 358 and 393.
State Route 473 between mile markers 0 and 10.
State Route 73 between mile markers 344 and 357.
Highway 180 191 between mile markers 380 and 394.
Highway 60 between mile markers 368 and 388.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3386 10993 3402 11003 3445 10925 3421 10909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 272DEG 8KT 3397 10992
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
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</html>The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The stream gauge on White River (WHTA3) near Ft Apache showed a 400 CFS spike.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1100392.