High Wind in Arizona, February 9, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 AM MST Thu Feb 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will push through the Four Corners
today resulting in a return of colder temperatures and gusty
northeast winds. Temperatures warm again for Friday and Saturday
with chances of precipitation returning Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A fast moving shortwave trough and associated dry
cold front will brush northern Arizona today. The cold front will
be accompanied by gusty north to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph
with local gusts of 30 to 50 mph, especially along and south of
the Mogollon Rim where funneling will occur. In addition, look for
a general dip of 10 to 15 degrees in daytime highs compared to
Wednesday along and north of the Mogollon Rim. South of the Rim
the air mass will moderate some as it sinks and warms on it's
travel to lower elevations with temperature drops more in the 4 to
8 degree range. There's no doubt for many of you out there it
will be a gusty and unpleasant feeling day.

On Friday and Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will move in on
Friday. Dry air left behind by the cold front will result strong
radiation cooling Friday morning with a dip in morning low
temperatures, especially those locations that remain snow
covered. As far as the high temperatures, during the day Friday a
milder air mass will move in aloft which will translate to warmer
daytime highs. Temperatures will moderate further on Saturday but
locally gusty southwest winds will develop in the afternoon as
another trough approaches Arizona. Otherwise, look for dry
conditions with a mix of sun and clouds.

From Sunday onward...An unsettled weather pattern returns. The
first in a series of low pressure systems will arrive Sunday
diving southward along the coast of California then moving across
northwest Mexico. The main impact will be cooler daytime
temperatures and some increase in breeziness. There will be a
slight chance for for mountain snow and lower elevation rain later
on Sunday into Monday but any accumulation, be it rain or snow,
is expect to be limited. The second trough will arrive late
Tuesday and linger into Thursday and deliver another chance of
rain and snow showers. Much colder temperatures and gusty winds
are a nearly certain. For now the forecast is for limited
moisture and precipitation. However, recent forecast model runs
suggest that the second trough could dip a bit further west
picking up additional Pacific moisture (vs. the current more
inland path) with rain and snow amounts increasing substantially.
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in relation to this
second system so check back as details come into focus.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF package...VFR persists through the TAF
period. N to NE winds of 10-20 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts are
anticipated to last through Thursday afternoon. Locally higher gusts
up to 40 kts possible in downslope locations southwest of a KFLG-
KSOW line. Areas of turbulence likely during this time. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusts of 20 to 35 mph can be expected with
the strongest winds likely along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Temperatures will be colder on Thursday followed by lighter easterly
winds and a warming trend for Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Stronger southwest winds return on
Saturday with mild temperatures likely. The weather pattern becomes
unsettled for Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures, periods of
breezy winds, and chances for rain and snow.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Kobold
FIRE WEATHER...Kobold

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff