Arizona, 2023Cold in Arizona, February 6, 2023
February 6, 2023 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s with wind chills near 20 degrees resulted in cold that was 15 to 20 degrees below the normal low temperature for February 6. The Pima County Medical Examiner determined that hypothermia was the primary cause of death for a homeless individual who had ingested methamphetamines and was found outdoors in downtown Tucson.
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- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s with wind chills near 20 degrees resulted in cold that was 15 to 20 degrees below the normal low temperature for February 6. The Pima County Medical Examiner determined that hypothermia was the primary cause of death for a homeless individual who had ingested methamphetamines and was found outdoors in downtown Tucson. The individual was transported to a hospital, but died later that day.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 2:06 PM MST, 9 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 2:06 PM MST, 9 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 PM MST Sun Feb 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will move north of the area to start
the work week, resulting in gusty winds and cooler temperatures, as
well as a slight chance of precipitation in the White Mountains.
Temperatures will rebound during the week, with highs at or above
normal levels Thursday into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Warm and sunny today across southeast Arizona, with
temperatures (as of 2 PM MST) topping out in valley locations in the
70s to around 80 degrees, which is 8-12 degrees above normal. Some
breezy afternoon southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to
around 30 mph (primarily east of Tucson) will persist into the early
evening hours tonight before diminishing.
This warmth will be short-lived as a storm system moves rapidly from
northern California this evening into the Four Corners Monday
afternoon and then south central New Mexico by Tuesday morning. This
system will result in a slight chance of precipitation in the White
Mountains Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. This system will also
result in sharply cooler temperatures, with highs on Monday and
Tuesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s for valley locations, or 6-9
degrees below normal. The main impact from this system will be the
strong and gusty west-northwest winds Monday afternoon and evening.
Expect wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph from
Tucson westward and speeds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph
across portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. These
speeds remain below Wind Advisory levels. While these wind speeds do
exceed Red Flag critical thresholds, minimum relative humidity
values are expected to stay above thresholds and the Fire Danger
Index remains at Low to Moderate levels across southeast Arizona.
Cool morning low temperatures will occur behind this system Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings, with the Tucson metro in the lower to mid
30s and colder readings east of Tucson in the 20s. High temperatures
begin to rebound on Wednesday, with afternoon highs within a degree
or so of normal levels. The models then show strong ridging to end
the work week. While the NBM (and official forecast) indicates near
to slightly above normal highs, ensemble 850-700 thickness values
suggest much warmer readings of 4-7 degrees above normal.
As we work into next weekend, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF differ
on timing and strength of the next system, with the GFS showing a
strong closed upper low moving across the desert southwest on
Sunday, while the ECMWF shows a much weaker west coast trough not
impacting the area until late Monday. Cluster Analysis also conveys
this uncertainty, with solutions varying from weak ridging to strong
troughing, with the trough axis location also varying from the
desert southwest to off the southern California coast. This is a
long ways out and the main theme is uncertainty. The models should
resolve the situation better as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
Clear skies thru 06/15Z, then SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL
primarily northeast of KTUS thru the end of the forecast period. A
slight chance of -SHRA/-SHSN northeast of KSAD aft 06/15Z. SWLY/WLY
SFC wind at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 24 kts thru 06/03Z, then
diminishing wind and SFC wind less than 10 kts between 06/03Z and
06/15Z. Increasing SFC wind aft 06/15Z, with WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 15-
25 kts and gusts to 25-35 kts. The strongest SFC wind will be east
of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and KSAD. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system moving north of the area Monday
into Tuesday will result in a slight chance of precipitation across
the White Mountains, along with cooler temperatures and breezy to
windy west to northwest winds area-wide. 20-foot winds will be 15-30
mph and gusts to between 30-40 mph Monday afternoon and early
evening. Minimum RH values are expected to stay above critical
values at most locations Monday, except possibly across far
southern portions of Cochise county. The Fire Danger index remains
at Low to Moderate levels. Therefore, no Fire Weather Watches/Red
Flag Warnings are expected. Temperatures will rebound and reach
normal to above normal levels Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
Zell
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Cold/Wind Chill, Tucson Metro Area
- When
- February 6, 12:00 AM MST to 12:00 PM MST
- Where
- Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s with wind chills near 20 degrees resulted in cold that was 15 to 20 degrees below the normal low temperature for February 6. The Pima County Medical Examiner determined that hypothermia was the primary cause of death for a homeless individual who had ingested methamphetamines and was found outdoors in downtown Tucson. The individual was transported to a hospital, but died later that day.
- Cold/Wind Chill
- Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1143654.