A strong pressure gradient developed over the Interior as a 998 mb low was over the Gulf of Alaska and a 1044 mb high was over the Arctic Ocean. This allowed for strong and gusty winds to develop over the higher terrain, including the Dalton Highway summits.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A strong pressure gradient developed over the Interior as a 998 mb low was over the Gulf of Alaska and a 1044 mb high was over the Arctic Ocean. This allowed for strong and gusty winds to develop over the higher terrain, including the Dalton Highway summits.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 11:28 PM AKST, 9 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1228 AM AKDT Fri Nov 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front has moved across the Mainland with a strong
northeast pressure gradient driving winds across the Arctic Coast
to the West Coast and through the Interior. Light snowfall over
the SE Interior will continue through Saturday then lift back
through the Tanana Valley with light snowfall chances. Better
accumulating snowfall develops over the Yukon and Kuskokwim
Valleys Saturday and Sunday, with that snow shifting east through
the Interior Monday.
Winds over the Interior will be quite blustery today through
Saturday, especially over the higher terrain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 546 dam high latitude blocking high centered north of
Wrangel Island with northerly flow aloft across the Arctic Coast.
An arctic front is situated across the Alaska Range with a 1044
mb high over the Arctic Ocean and a 998 mb low over the Gulf of
Alaska. There is a migratory upper level low shifting southeast
from the Chukotsk Peninsula (E Siberia) into the larger scale
Mainland upper trough. That trough is centered over the NW
Territory with heights around 524 dam. Finally, there is another
migratory upper level low over the N Gulf of Alaska, which is
responsible for bringing some moisture north into the Arctic
front.
Model Discussion...
Models are in very good agreement with the general pattern and
have not changed much as a group over the past two days. They are
still waffling about with the intricate phasing of a Siberian
migratory low and the arctic trough, Saturday and Sunday.
However, averaging out the solutions offers similar overall
forecasts with the general idea being a high likelihood for a band
of 3 to 5 inches of snowfall over the Yukon Valley this weekend.
Lighter snowfall over the SE Interior occurs through Saturday then
returns with a better chance on Sunday night and Monday.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow will continue over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range
into Saturday, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of snowfall.
Meanwhile, a strong pressure gradient will continue over the
Interior and will peak today and Saturday, with gusty winds down
to lower elevation valleys, possibly as high as 30 mph. Interior
highlands will see gusts to 40 to 50 mph, with possible gusts to
60 mph over Dalton Highway summits south of Coldfoot. The Tanana
Valley Jet down by Delta Junction will also blow this weekend
gusting into the 30 mph range.
Chances for snow rotate back over the Tanana Valley and White Mtns
Saturday with a skiff of snow possible, but it looks like once
again minimal accumulations, if any, with the snow being light and
dry. The better chance for snow for the Interior comes on Sunday
night and Monday as the arctic trough shifts east.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Dry offshore winds have commenced and will continue to blow 15 to
25 mph, locally gusting to gale force toward the Chukchi Coast.
Temps are already on the downtrend as arctic air continues to
shift south. Snow moves into the Kuskokwim Valley and shifts north
through the Yukon Valley to the W Brooks Range, bringing 3 to 5
inches of snow Saturday and Sunday. Snow chances will also move
across E Norton Sound and into Kotzebue Sound, but it will be much
lighter out that way. The northeast offshore winds begin to wane
early Sunday as the surface inverted trough shifts north through
the region.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
East to northeast winds continue today and remain relatively
steady state, with continued light snowfall along the Arctic
Coast, aided by ice free waters over the Arctic. The pressure
gradient ramps up tonight and just continues to increase through
Sunday with widespread gale force winds developing. Gusts over the
E Arctic may reach close to storm force (50 mph or higher) by
Sunday night and Monday. Light snow will also increase over the
western half of the Arctic and N Slope Sunday, so blowing and
drifting snow will increase as well. However, with winds to gale
force expect blowing and drifting snow everywhere, although there
is not sufficient snow yet for a whiteout blizzard, it will still
be blowing around pretty good with some limited visibility.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Monday and beyond, an arctic low will be stationed over the
Mainland with a high latitude blocking high over the high arctic.
The polar jet will be screaming across the NPAC as storms ravage
the Aleutian Chain and the Gulf of AK. It looks high confidence
that this pattern will pan out, which means weakening lows will
shift inland at times, bringing snow chances north of the Alaska
Range. With the arctic front south of the Alaska Range, it also
means any low which moves into the Gulf will really crank up the
pressure gradient and increase northeast to east winds over the
Mainland at times.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ832.
Wind Advisory for AKZ833-834-842.
Wind Advisory for AKZ846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>806-810-812-814-816-817-850-852-
854-860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-809>815-856>861.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-859-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&
AhsenmacherSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 357 AM AKDT Fri Nov 3 2023 AKZ838-840-841-843>845-040300- Upper Chena River Valley-Eielson AFB and Salcha- Goldstream Valley and Nenana Hills-Two Rivers- Fairbanks Metro Area-Nenana- Including Chena Hot Springs, Chena Hot Springs Road east of MP 34, Eielson AFB, Salcha, Moose Creek, Harding Lake, The Richardson Highway from MP 317 to MP 346, Ester Dome, Murphy Dome, The Parks Highway from MP 325 to MP 342, Two Rivers, Chena Hot Springs Road from MP 12 to MP 34, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Ester, North Pole, Fox, Nenana, and The Parks Highway from MP 290 to 325 357 AM AKDT Fri Nov 3 2023 ...Blustery winds through Saturday... Blustery north to east winds will blow over parts of the Eastern Interior, including the Fairbanks area, through Saturday. Winds gusting 25 to 35 mph through the valley floors and 30 to 40 mph in the hills and mountains are expected through PM Saturday. High profile vehicles traveling on area highways should use caution for any crosswinds. Secure any loose outdoor items. Local power outages are possible. JRA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Bonanza Creek (G23KX) U.S. Array site reported wind gusts up to 82 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1149362.