A band of freezing precipitation spread across the Susitna Valley as a weak upper level low lifted north across the central Gulf. Temperatures hovered near freezing caused areas of freezing rain along the Parks Highway corridor from Houston to Talkeetna.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A band of freezing precipitation spread across the Susitna Valley as a weak upper level low lifted north across the central Gulf. Temperatures hovered near freezing caused areas of freezing rain along the Parks Highway corridor from Houston to Talkeetna.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 4:11 AM AKST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 511 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2023 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A series of low level, inverted troughs and weak upper level shortwaves will move over Southcentral over the next 36 hours. These weak perturbations will lead to light rain along the Gulf Coast today and eventually spreading over into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Friday morning. Given a stout inversion overhead, there is likely going to be pockets of light freezing rain for Anchorage, and the southern Mat-Su along the Parks Highway between Houston and the Talkeetna Cutoff. The greatest uncertainty is in regards to surface temperatures and whether or not the rain will be true meteorological freezing rain or rain falling onto the frozen ground. This will dictate the extent and/or severity of freezing rain in whether or not it will just affect roadways or if it will also freeze to trees, power lines, etc. The most likely area for true meteorological freezing rain (rain falling into air temperatures below freezing) is from Willow north to the Talkeetna Cutoff, where cold air in the valley areas is more likely due to drainage off of the southwestern Talkeetnas. The reason for the uncertainty is cloudcover. Air temperatures may not be able to fall below freezing after warming today to do lack of radiative cooling over night. Additionally, temperatures have been warmer the past 3 days, but given that rain easily froze to roadways at above freezing temperatures last Sunday, there will likely be some ice in the early morning hours on Friday due to the frozen ground. Temperatures will warm through the day, which should help to mitigate the impacts from freezing rain. Weather on Saturday will remain somewhat unsettled as troughing amplifies to the west. Generally southerly flow with low level easterlies through the Gulf will keep light, but steady precipitation for the northern parts of the Susitna Valley as well as the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Some solutions have more continuous precipitation from Anchorage north to Wasilla, but these are being discounted for now as they are breaking down the ridge over the AlCan border too quick. Weather on Sunday will mark a stark pattern change towards colder, and likely snowier weather for much of Southcentral. A stout cold airmass and upper level trough will move in from the west. Temperatures aloft will cool rather quickly, transitioning rain to snow from southwest to northeast as it moves up Cook Inlet and into the Mat-Su. Uncertainties associated with snow amounts will be related to how fast the cold air will move in, which is a challenge when it needs to go through the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. For snow lovers out there, the fact that the cold air will move through areas like the Kamishak Gap and from the southwest, looks to be more favorable rather than it having to move through the dense Alaska Range. A couple inches at sea level look likely for many of the Cook Inlet areas and Mat-Su right now. Stay tuned. -CJ && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Prior concerns about freezing rain for Southwest Alaska, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta, are diminishing. Models have trended down precipitation through Friday. This is largely a result of a Central Aleutian low making further southward progress, and a front, associated with a secondary low to the south of the Alaska Peninsula, not making as much of a northward push into interior Alaska. Temperatures this morning across most of Southwest remain above freezing. There are exceptions to be sure. Sparrevohn is sitting right at 32 degrees and Bethel is just above freezing at 33 degrees. The bigger picture, however, is that precipitation should fall entirely as all rain or as a rain/snow mix, instead of a snow/freezing rain mix. A dry air mass currently over Bethel is slowly moistening up, as precipitation tries to move into the Kuskokwim Delta from the east. Light snow is forecast during the morning hours, but accumulations will be negligible. The next big weather feature will be an upper trough digging southward out of the Chukchi Sea and into the Kuskokwim Mountains Friday into Saturday. Strong northerly flow is forecast to develop behind the low, which will allow much cooler temperatures to infiltrate the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska by Saturday morning. Scattered snow showers will be possible over the Greater Bristol Bay area and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, as an upper trough becomes stationary over interior Alaska through the weekend. It has been an unusually warm and drier start to the winter season this year, but cooler temperatures and the chance for snow return in earnest over the weekend. Finally, the Bering Sea can expect to see predominantly east to northeasterly winds transition to a northerly direction through late Friday. Small craft winds with gusts to gale force will be commonplace through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by early Saturday. -BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Reasonably good agreement with the forecast models through the period, even with the consistently aggressive ECMWF outlier over the Eastern portions. Weak ridging moves into Northern Alaska, and a couple of high pressure areas run West to East to the South of the Aleutians, allowing a series of low centers to drive from the Russian Far East across the Bering to the Alaska Peninsula. Wet and windy conditions spread across the Bering into Southwest Alaska, with a slightly lesser period of active weather over the Western Bering for Tuesday. Gap winds to gale force expected through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Wednesday. Closing out the weekend in the East is a well developed low near Queen Victoria Island. Its front extends into Southeastern Alaska and will swing East to West across the Gulf through Monday. Gap winds are expected through the Barren Islands and Sitkinak areas, along with some locally heavy rain along the Southcentral Coast. Another well developed low swings from the Alaska Peninsula into the Southcentral Gulf for Wednesday, and repeats the weather pattern through the end of the week. -KZ && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR ceilings along with light northerly winds will persist through today. A North Pacific low will lift northward through the Gulf of Alaska through the day on Friday. Light rain looks to overspread the terminal late tonight or very early Friday morning. There is a slight risk that some of the rain, at the onset of precipitation, could freeze to below freezing surfaces even though air temperatures might be slightly above freezing. The vast majority of precipitation should be mostly in the form of rain though. For now, keeping ceilings VFR due to the southeasterly flow at cloud level. Although while maintaining VFR, ceilings will likely drop below 5,000 feet late tonight and especially Friday morning. -DAN &&
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK 548 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2023 AKZ102-112-030200- Anchorage-Matanuska Valley- Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna, Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon 548 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2023 ...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING... Light rain is expected to spill over into Anchorage and portions of the Matanuska Valley early Friday morning. Air temperatures are expected to be between 30 and 36 degrees at the onset of precipitation. Even in areas where the air temperature is above freezing, ground temperatures are near or below freezing, which may cause ice to form. The most likely areas for ice accumulation on roadways and/or freezing rain include: East Anchorage, the Glenn Highway Corridor from Muldoon north to the Palmer Hay Flats, and the Matanuska Valley from Meadow Lakes south to Pt. Mackenzie. Black ice may form in these areas, so plan accordingly and be sure to check the forecast for updates.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Freezing rain was observed in Houston, AK with commuters from Eagle River, AK into the Susitna Valley reporting difficult and icy road conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140744.