Alaska, 2023Flooding in Alaska, May 27 to 31, 2023
May 27 to 31, 2023 · NWS AFG · 2 events in 1 county or zone
A prolonged period of well-below-average spring temperatures combined with an above-average winter snowpack created a dynamic breakup of the Yukon River. This resulted in numerous ice jams and snowmelt flooding on the Yukon River.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A prolonged period of well-below-average spring temperatures combined with an above-average winter snowpack created a dynamic breakup of the Yukon River. This resulted in numerous ice jams and snowmelt flooding on the Yukon River. Breakup flooding began on May 12th in eastern Alaska in Eagle and ended on June 3rd in the Yukon River delta at the Bering Sea coast at the community of Emmonak. The primary cause of this active flood year was a 1-2 week delay in breakup when compared to typical timing. April temperatures were well below normal, and when temperatures began to warm in early May, it melted the low-elevation snowpack quickly. Because of the relatively quick addition of snowmelt onto strong ice, the ice was more susceptible to jamming and floods. In addition to the late breakup, the snowpack this winter was 1 to 1.5 times greater than the climatological normal for interior and western Alaska. Significant ice jams and associated flooding on the Upper and Middle Yukon River resulted in large volumes of ice and water to move down into the Yukon Delta.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 3:52 AM AKST, 7 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 27, 3:52 AM AKST, 7 hours 16 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
452 AM AKDT Sat May 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS... Flooding continues to be the primary concern across
Alaska through the weekend. There is high water due to rapid snow
melt along the Yukon and Porcupine Rivers from Fort Yukon north
and west with flooding occurring at Fort Yukon, Beaver, Stevens
Village and Galena, with flooding at low spots downriver to
Russian Mission, as well many low spots in between. Ice jam
flooding is occurring at Russian Mission, as the threat for
flooding in the southwest continues. Wet and cooler pattern will
continue for the Interior into the weekend and early next week.
.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the Arctic will weakend
slightly over the eastern north slope through Sunday. An
upper level low over Bristol Bay will drift to the southeast over
the weekend and into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday. A series of
shortwaves will move across the Interior today through the
weekend. An upper level trough will drop across northwest Alaska
and the west coast Sunday into Monday.
Models...
Models continue to bring more precip over the eastern Interior
Sunday and Monday. We went with a blend of PoP/QPF across the
Interior over the weekend and leaned towards the ECMF and NAM for
Monday.
Central and Eastern Interior...
A wind advisory is still in effect for the Eastern Alaska range
through the morning hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph are still
occurring in the passes but will diminish some in the afternoon.
A weak thermal trough will set up over the Interior today with
only isolated showers expected. More rain showers expected on
Sunday for the eastern Interior as an easterly wave moves across
the area which could continue into Monday. Half inch to an inch
of rain is possible in the Forty Mile area Sunday into Monday. A
special weather statement is out of elevated river levels early
next week. A slight chance of isolated wet thunderstorms across
the Interior is also possible for Sunday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of stratus and fog will continue across the north slope
through the weekend. As high pressure shifts to the east, weak
shortwaves will move across the Brooks range bringing scattered
rain/snow showers on Sunday. A stronger cold front will move
across northwest Alaska Monday into Tuesday.
Western Interior and West Coast...
Unsettled weather will continue over the southern west
coast through Saturday due to low pressure in Bristol Bay.
On Sunday a wave will move across the Western Interior from the
northwest and see rain from Galena to Grayling before it tapers
off as it moves south of McGrath. Rainfall could be moderate to
heavy at times from Graylng to Galena on Sunday afternoon as well.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
Model solutions suggest troughing to continue into the long term
with cooler, showery conditions persisting into the middle of next
week.
FIRE WEATHER...
Weak thermal trough will set up over the Interior today with a
few showers possible over the western Interior. Also a few
degrees warmer today but much cooler on Sunday.
RH values may dip back to 30 to 35 percent on Saturday.
Gusty gap winds for the eastern Alaska range and near Delta
Junction through this morning. A wave will bring a good chance of
wetting rain to the eastern Interior Sunday through Monday. A
slight chance of isolated wet thunderstorms across the Interior is
also possible for Sunday.
HYDROLOGY...
Flooding will remain an issue through the weekend. There is high
water due to rapid snow melt along the Yukon and Porcupine Rivers
from Fort Yukon north and west with flooding occurring at Fort
Yukon, Beaver, Stevens Village and Galena, with flooding at low
spots downriver to Russian Mission, as well many low spots in
between. Ice jam flooding is occurring at Russian Mission, and
there is potential for significant ice jam flooding from Russian
Mission to the Bering Sea this week. There is also potential for
flooding along the Kobuk River, and for all rivers draining the
south side of the Brooks Range.
The latest breakup information is available at
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ214-220.
Flood advisory for AK216
Flood warning for AK214
Flood warning for AK220
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&Flood, Yukon Delta
- When
- May 27, 11:08 AM AKST to May 31, 8:42 AM AKST
- Where
- Yukon Delta County, 1.5 mi NNW of Alakanuk to 2.65 mi WSW of Alakanuk
- Cause
- Ice Jam
- Reported by
- Tribal Official
- Coordinates
- 62.701, -164.685
An ice jam formed in the Yukon River Delta on May 27th on the South Mouth of Yukon River near Alakanuk. Extensive flooding occurred with moderate flooding at Alakanuk. Low-lying roads in the community were submerged including the access road to the airport. In addition, numerous homes which are elevated on pilings in Alakanuk had water beneath them along with extensive property flooding. Water and sewer lines were reportedly impacted in Alakanuk. The ice jam released on May 28th and ice was reported to be moving out through rotten shore fast ice into the Bering Sea. A Food Watch was issued on May 23rd and upgraded to a Flood Warning on May 27th. All flood products were canceled on June 3rd.
Flood, Yukon Delta
- When
- May 27, 11:08 AM AKST to May 31, 8:42 AM AKST
- Where
- Yukon Delta County, 0.45 mi ESE of Emmonak to 1.73 mi S of Emmonak
- Cause
- Ice Jam
- Reported by
- Tribal Official
- Coordinates
- 62.778, -164.487
An ice jam formed in the Yukon River Delta on May 27th on the South Mouth of Yukon River near Alakanuk. Extensive overland flooding occurred with minor flooding Emmonak. Low-lying roads were submerged, including access road to the airport. In addition, numerous homes which are elevated on pilings in Emmonak had water beneath them along with extensive property flooding. The ice jam released on May 28th and ice was reported to be moving out through rotten shore fast ice into the Bering Sea. A Flood Watch was issued on May 23rd and upgraded to a Flood Warning on May 27th. All flood products were canceled on June 3rd.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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- Flash Flooding and Debris Flows in West Virginia, May 27 to 30, 2023$434,000 · 23 events
- Strong Wind in South Carolina, May 27, 2023$17,000 · 4 events
- Tornadoes and Hail in Wyoming, May 27, 20231.5 in hail · 13 events
- Hail in Wyoming, May 27, 20231.75 in hail · 9 events
- Flash Flood and Flood in Texas, May 27, 202363 kt wind · 5 events
- Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, May 27, 20231 in hail · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Wyoming, May 27, 202353 kt wind · 4 events
- Tornado and Flash Flood in Texas, May 27, 20231 in hail · 4 events
- Hail in South Dakota, May 27, 20231.75 in hail · 3 events
- Hail in New Mexico, May 27, 20231.75 in hail · 3 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1102001, 1102002.