Late in the afternoon into the evening of the 27th, a couple of supercells moving east-southeast out of eastern New Mexico produced severe weather in the western South Plains. One of these supercell thunderstorms produced tornadoes in eastern New Mexico before moving into Yoakum County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Late in the afternoon into the evening of the 27th, a couple of supercells moving east-southeast out of eastern New Mexico produced severe weather in the western South Plains. One of these supercell thunderstorms produced tornadoes in eastern New Mexico before moving into Yoakum County. As the storm tracked across Yoakum County, it produced a brief tornado northwest of Plains and severe hail in the city of Plains. A second supercell thunderstorm tracked across northern Cochran County producing severe hail in Morton.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 5:37 PM CST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 637 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Yet another active round of weather is setting up over the region today with a high likelihood for what would be our fourth consecutive night that we see an MCS. The surface map as of 2 PM featured cool and very moist ESE flow with an outflow boundary draped roughly along Highway 70 from west of Clovis to just south of Plainview, and at least two other outflows loitering in the southern Rolling Plains. The former boundary is of greatest interest in the near term as this is directed along the easterly upslope of central NM where storm initiation is most favored. Any storms that interact and track favorably along this boundary will have a heightened potential for low-level mesos and a few tornadoes, particularly given low LCLs and LFCs. Despite cool surface temps and unfavorable low-level lapse rates, MLCAPEs are already pushing 1500 J/kg near the NM border with negligible capping, and 0-6km bulk shear is progged to improve to 35 knots in the coming hours. Additional insolation in the coming hours should only improve prospects for storms to intensify as they approach the TX/NM border. Otherwise, the focus will shift to flooding through the night as convection likely grows upscale into an MCS as it encounters an amplifying southeasterly LLJ and Theta-E axis. Background ascent is already evident this afternoon in the form of a modest shortwave trough around 700mb with decent speed convergence. This wave is driving a narrow N-S axis of storms into the Rolling Plains this afternoon with a lull in its wake. Farther upstream, water vapor imagery shows a better defined shortwave trough that will serve to nudge weak upper riding out of the region tonight and aid in driving our MCS east-southeast from the South Plains this evening into the southern Rolling Plains after midnight. HREF mean captures this scenario nicely with the potential for widespread 1" rain amounts with locally 2-4". On top of already saturated soils over the majority of the Caprock, this will fuel a greater flooding risk as shown by WPC's moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Some concern exists that our Panhandle counties may remain on the cooler/more stable side of the aforementioned outflow boundary which could curb rainfall amounts here, but considering the amount of standing water still being reported over some roads particularly in Castro and Swisher Counties, feel the threat for renewed flooding concerns is credible. Rain chances taper on Sunday following the MCS. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Monday will see any remaining precip begin to push off to the east as upper amplifies and the axis moves over the South Plains. The upper ridge will hinder precip chances for part of Monday into late Wednesday which should allow for remaining surface water to soak in/evaporate and allow mosquitoes to being their invasion. Despite hindered rain chances, there is still a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening as models depict a weakness on the eastern side of the upper ridge. The Rolling Plains would be favored the most with any rain chances. The upper low currently just offshore of Washington and Oregon will push southward and move inland across southern California by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Models disagree on whether the upper low will stay closed (GFS) or transition to an open wave (ECMWF). The running consensus had been to keep the low closed. Either solution would result in the upper ridge being kicked eastward with the upper flow becoming more diffluent over the FA. Models have the upper low/trough gaining a negative tilt as it pushes eastward towards and settles near the Four Corners resulting in increased chances for severe convection during the afternoons and evenings Wednesday through Saturday. As moisture will still be in abundance, heavy rainfall will continue to be a possibility with any convection that develops. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 MVFR CIGs at LBB and PVW will likely persist this evening and tonight ahead of approaching thunderstorms while CDS is expected to remain VFR. Thunderstorms are expected to move east across the area tonight and impact PVW and LBB as a line of storms or a broken line of storms with strong erratic winds and possibly large hail. There is a chance of thunderstorms at CDS late tonight and early tomorrow morning but confidence is lower that the terminal will be affected. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions will be possible after the thunderstorm activity moves east of LBB and PVW. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036- 039>042. && SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...17
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1227 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 TXZ021>044-281730- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1227 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and move east into the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle by this evening. A few of these storms could produce hail to quarter size and wind gusts to 60 mph. Additionally, any storms that can interact favorably with an outflow boundary across the northern South Plains could produce a few tornadoes. Flooding will become the primary threat with storms tonight as they expand in coverage and produce heavy rainfall over areas that have already experienced flooding in recent days. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the South Plains and much of the far southern Texas Panhandle this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and persist into the evening and overnight hours on Sunday and Monday and Wednesday through Friday. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall may also result in localized flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible later today.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:25 UTC.
2 hail, 1 tornado, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A supercell thunderstorm that had a history of producing tornadoes in eastern New Mexico developed a brief tornado northwest of Plains. The short lived tornado occurred over open land and inflicted no known damage.
A slow moving thunderstorm produced heavy rainfall over a portion of northern Cochran County which caused flash flooding. Law enforcement reported flooding on roadways at several locations in rural Cochran County.
Law enforcement reported quarter size hail in the city of Morton.
Law enforcement reported quarter size hail in the city of Plains.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Texas, 2023Warnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1097465, 1097078, 1097066, 1097067.