A strong frontal system associated with a powerful low moving south of the Kamchatka Peninsula moved north into the western Aleutian Chain out of the North Pacific on 1/28, producing strong easterly winds as it crossed over into the southern Bering Sea. The strongest winds by far were reported at Shemya, where peak gusts to 80 mph occurred during the late afternoon and evening hours of 1/28.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A strong frontal system associated with a powerful low moving south of the Kamchatka Peninsula moved north into the western Aleutian Chain out of the North Pacific on 1/28, producing strong easterly winds as it crossed over into the southern Bering Sea. The strongest winds by far were reported at Shemya, where peak gusts to 80 mph occurred during the late afternoon and evening hours of 1/28.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 27, 5:59 AM AKST, 9 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
559 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
This morning, a longwave trough is situated with its axis near
the Kamchatka Peninsula, while a ridge is located to the east,
building into southern mainland Alaska from the Northeast
Pacific. This configuration puts a southerly jet streak, and
associated plume of moist, warm air (evident on satellite imagery)
over the eastern Bering Sea taking aim at Southwest Alaska. A warm
front, pushing north across the Alaska Peninsula is bringing rain
there this morning before it is set to produce freezing rain and
mixed precipitation types once it reaches the Southwest coast
later today. A mid-level shortwave ridge out ahead of the warm
front is allowing a cirrus-free glimpse of patchy stratus
lingering around the southern mainland in weak flow. Generally
calm conditions are present over Southcentral, where temperatures
have broadly fallen back below freezing, with the exception of
coastal locations within the fjords of Prince William Sound.
Underneath the building ridge, low stratus is abundant across the
Gulf of Alaska, with some locations along the coast reporting
overcast ceilings below 1000 ft. Out west, a complex low within
the longwave trough is affecting the central and western Bering
Sea/Aleutians. Disturbances embedded within this low are bringing
periods of shower activity (mostly snow) to the islands as they
rotate around the low center.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term.
There continues to be small-scale differences in the northward
extent of the warm air later today, so there remains some
uncertainty with what locations within the Kuskokwim Delta and
Lower Kuskokwim Valley will see freezing rain and for how long.
The NAM continues to depict a warmer solution than other models.
There is increased agreement with regards to the placement of
precipitation, especially with the evolution of the front Friday
night into Saturday over Southwest Alaska. Going into Sunday and
Monday, there is good agreement that another surge of warm air
will bring more widespread rain chances to Southwest Alaska and
parts of Southcentral.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...With light winds expected through the forecast period,
stratus is expected to stick around. This will keep ceilings VFR
(below 5000 ft) to MVFR through the morning hours. The best chance
for this stratus to disperse will be during the afternoon and into
the evening, before ceilings are expected to decrease again with
the onset of potential shower activity late tonight and continuing
into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...
A ridge of high pressure centered over mainland Alaska and the
Gulf of Alaska will strengthen through Saturday, then weaken and
shift eastward on Sunday. Warm air will ride up the west side of
the ridge today then curve eastward over top of the ridge and
across Southcentral Alaska tonight. A reinforcing shot of warm air
will move in on Saturday. The warm air will ride up and over the
cold air in place, leading to strengthening temperature
inversions. Expect temperatures to rise above freezing in the
mountains - roughly from around 1500 to 5000 feet - and perhaps
higher across the Kenai . Temperatures at sea level will remain
at or below freezing. Expect variable cloudiness across the region
as clouds move around the ridge. Areas of low clouds in place
this morning, namely in the Cook Inlet region will likely persist
as temperature inversions strengthen. In addition, there could be
localized areas of fog.
The initial warm front will bring some light rain to Kodiak
Island today. Behind the front, a steep inversion will quickly
lead to development of very low clouds and fog. As the warm air
overruns Southcentral, there could be some patchy light
precipitation tonight into Saturday morning. The most likely spot
seems to be the west side of the Talkeetna Mountains, with weak
upslope contributing to upward vertical motion. Otherwise, expect
mostly dry conditions through Saturday night. A series of short-
waves lifting up the west side of the ridge will ultimately cause
it to weaken and shift eastward, allowing light precipitation to
overspread the region Sunday through Sunday night. The big
forecast challenge will be precipitation type. The airmass in
place will have cooled a bit from the peak of warmth Friday night
through Saturday night. However, all indications are that there
will still be a layer of above freezing temperatures from the
Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage. Surface temperatures will likely
be right around the freezing mark, so freezing rain is a
possibility.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast remains largely on track. The primary concern over
the short-term continues to be freezing rain over much of
Southwest Alaska, from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim
Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and Bristol Bay. The biggest
changes to the forecast package overnight have been to increase
precipitation amounts given increasing forecast confidence. As
such, forecast snow and ice amounts have increased for the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast remains largely on track. The big story is a strong
low that will impact the Western Aleutians and Bering Sea from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. A High Wind Watch is in
effect for the Western Aleutians as winds look to be sustained at
storm force, with hurricane force gusts possible. This could be a
one-two punch as the initial front brings strong southeasterly
winds Saturday afternoon, followed by the potential for strong
southwesterly winds enhanced by cold advection on the back side
of the low from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
A relatively active weather pattern is in store for the upcoming
workweek. The long term forecast begins on Monday with an upper-
level ridge slowly exiting the Southern Mainland to the southeast
while an area of high pressure breaks off and heads to the
northwest. An upper trough over the Bering and Aleutians pushes
east and aids in breaking down the ridge. The main forecast
uncertainties lie with how the models decide to handle various
upper-level disturbances embedded within the trough. Nonetheless,
there is general consensus for a Western Bering surface front and
a low near the Alaska Peninsula to spread precipitation across
much of the Bering/Aleutians and Southern Mainland, respectively,
through the week as they track eastward. Southwest Alaska is
expected to experience above normal temperatures roughly through
Tuesday, which would promote the potential for mixed
precipitation across the region. Winds up to gale-force are
anticipated to accompany the Bering front, while winds with the
low should remain at or below small craft. Another low is
advertised to approach the Aleutians from the North Pacific on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Beyond this time, however,
confidence with the low track decreases significantly.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 191.
Winter Weather Advisory 152 155 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177 178.
Gale Warning 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...AF1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The AWOS sensor in Shemya began to report severe winds gusting above 75 mph around 6 PM AKST 1/28 and reported a peak gust of 82 mph at around 7 PM AKST 1/28 before winds began to decrease as the front pushed past to the north.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1099945.