Heavy Snow in Alaska, April 8 to 9, 2023

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Sat Apr 8 2023

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...Main takeaway - while many
in the northern panhandle had a dry day with some sunshine, the
southern panhandle has had clouds, rain, and gusty winds. And
going forward, the cloudy, rainy, and windy weather will spread
north tonight and last into Sunday.

At the 500mb level - tonight through Sunday, a trough over the
gulf will have embedded waves spinning over the panhandle. These
embedded waves will move south to north. Sunday night, low
pressure center will move into the gulf from the north.

At the 850mb level - Overall, WAA is expected through Sunday
afternoon as the embedded waves track north through the panhandle,
then as the 500mb low enters the gulf Sunday night, that's when CAA
would be expected.

At the surface - tonight will see a low in the gulf moving north
with the associated front tracking through the area. Another low
will move north through the panhandle on Sunday, keeping the rainy
weather in place. Then as the colder air tracks in the from west,
the rainy weather will become more showery with breaks in the
clouds as the night goes on.

All that really to say that clouds, rain, and gusty winds will
move north and persist well into Sunday. Then Sunday night, colder
air will swing in from the west, switching us to a more showery
pattern giving on-and-off rain Sunday night.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday night/...As the low continues
to weaken and move out of the area on Monday, winds will continue
to decrease across the area. Most places along the outer coast
will still winds around 20 kts before winds out there slow as
well. After that, a ridge will start to build into the area for
Tuesday and into early Wednesday bringing quiet weather to the
area. This will be short lived as another low forming near Cook
Inlet will enter the gulf of Alaska and remain offshore for the
rest of the week. This will bring back the rain back to the area
during the day on Wednesday. Some places could see a mix of rain
and snow with temperatures allowing for some mixing. No snow
accumulations are expect with this mix though. Areas that are most
likely to see accumulating snow ill be the Haines and Klondike
Highways.

For the end of the week, the pattern looks to remain similar to the
middle of the week as the low hangs around the gulf. This will bring
more precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures to the area
for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...The day started out well with a PIREP from Caravan
pilot in Ketchikan reporting "Surprisingly good right now", which
we interpreted as "conditions better than forecast". I'll take
it. But then, conditions rapidly deteriorated with many turbulence
and LLWS reports through the day, including an Aeronca CH7A reporting
mod turbulence over Eaglecrest...What were you thinking?? The
worst of the wind shear is yet to come as the front sweeps north
through the evening, but improvement will be rapid by Sunday
morning...briefly. By mid day, the southern Panhandle will once
again be impacted by some robust LLWS and turbulence as a
developing wave rockets in from the south with 40 to 65 kt low
level winds. Recommend staying at home tomorrow and have a really
fine dinner instead of flying. CIGS and VSBY will continue to be
on the border between marginal VFR conditions and VFR conditions,
so that's good at least.

&&

.MARINE...The strongest winds will be associated with the frontal
passages. As the front moves through your area tonight, the wind
speeds will increase to around 25 to 35 knots in the inner
channels. But as the front moves north, winds will calm before the
next frontal passes Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Sunday through Sunday morning for
     AKZ317.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for AKZ326.
     Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ326-328.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ327.
     Strong Wind through Sunday morning for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ329.
     Strong Wind through Sunday afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...Fritsch
MARINE...GJS

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