Excessive Heat in Alabama, August 12 to 14, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
609 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Dangerously hot conditions will continue today. The heat indices
this afternoon are expected to be even hotter than the past couple
of days with an upper ridge building more into the area. While
actual air temperatures are expected to range from the upper 90s to
lower 100s, dewpoints are expected to remain well into the 70s,
pushing peak heat indices to 113 or higher over a large portion of
the area. Thus, we've upgraded the entire area to an excessive heat
warning for today. Some areas of the Florida panhandle and big bend
may reach heat index values of 120 this afternoon.

Although a few afternoon storms are possible across the area, the
building upper ridge will likely delay initiation and keep coverage
mostly isolated to scattered. The delayed initiation of storms is
expected to help us reach the dangerously high heat index values
this afternoon. Given high instability and high DCAPE values this
afternoon, any storms that do develop could produce gusty winds.

Any scattered storms that develop today will diminish this evening
with overnight lows ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Upper level heights build across the area on Sunday and Monday as
the ridge moves overhead. A continuation of dangerous heat is
expected with high temperatures remaining in the upper 90s with a
few locations possibly hitting 100 on Sunday and Monday. With
plenty of low-level moisture around, thanks for mid-upper 70s
dewpoints, heat indices again will solidly climb to around 115-120
across a large portion of the forecast area with values around
113-116 across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. A slight
drop in heat indices is anticipated on Monday but heat advisories
and excessive heat warnings (for Florida) are likely to continue.

For what seems the one of the few times we've had easterly flow
this summer, showers and storms will gradually move west and
northwest each day as light low level flow from the east helps
slowly move and storms inland. Showers/storms will form on the
seabreezes Sunday afternoon and again on Monday but with the
strong upper level ridge overhead expect coverage to remain
isolated to scattered and around 30-50%

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

The upper level ridge will break down through middle part of the
week as another upper level trough dips down into the eastern
third of the US. A weak frontal boundary will drop into the region
and when combined with plenty of moisture this should bring rain
chances higher, especially on Wednesday. Whether rain chances
stick around into the end of the upcoming week largely depends on
the evolution of the trough. GFS cuts off a weak upper level low
across the region and keeps conditions wetter while other
solutions are more progressive and rebuild a upper level trough
over the south.

Regardless how the pattern evolves, we should have at least a day
or two next week with a break from heat advisories and excessive
heat warnings as the heat abates and rain chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon around TLH,
ECP, and DHN with VCTS indicated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

High pressure over area waters will keep winds and seas light
through Monday. Slightly stronger winds and seas develop through
the upcoming week but will likely remain below cautionary levels.
Additionally rain chances will increase through the upcoming week.
The best time for storms will be in the overnight and early
morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Extreme heat will be a big concern for those working outdoors this
weekend with heat index values of 110 to 120 degrees possible.
Otherwise, gusty and erratic winds near afternoon thunderstorms will
be the other fire weather concern through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Rainfall amounts will be around 1 to 2 inches through Wednesday
with isolated higher amounts. No flooding impacts beyond very
isolated nuisance flooding under slow moving storms is expected.
Rain chances potentially increase later in the upcoming week, but
flooding concerns at least for now do not appear likely.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee  100  77  99  78 /  40  20  40  10
Panama City   95  81  95  82 /  50  20  40  10
Dothan        99  76  99  78 /  50  30  40  10
Albany        98  76  98  77 /  20  20  30  10
Valdosta      98  76  98  78 /  20  20  30  10
Cross City    97  78  97  78 /  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  94  81  93  82 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-
     034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ065>069.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs