A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 29 miles north of Loma near Douglas Pass.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 29 miles north of Loma near Douglas Pass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 11:43 AM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1243 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1239 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Increased moisture across the forecast area has resulted in pockets of clouds and light rain. Where there has been ample sun convection has begun to develop over the higher terrain. Where clouds still linger showers and storms will be delayed or possibly not able to form at all due to the limited instability. The sounding this morning revealed that midlevel lapse rates are not that steep, so instability overall may be inhibited today. Any storms that do form will be capable of brief heavy rain due to ample moisture and slow storm motion. Gusty outflow winds will be possible, but the moisture is limiting the DCAPE. Outflow wind gusts could approach 40 mph, but anything above that will be isolated. Convective coverage this afternoon and early evening will mainly be across the southern two thirds of the area. The better chances are over the higher terrain since CAPE in some of the lower valleys might not be sufficient for storms to maintain. If modest cold pools can form then it could steer showers into the valleys. Most of the activity should dissipate around sunset although the models are hinting that showers may linger around the Four Corners region and portions of the San Juans and locations along the New Mexico state line. Tomorrow a wave passes over the Northern Rockies and High Plains causing winds to shift out of the northwest mainly north of I-70. The flow will advect drier midlevel air over this area, which means a decrease in the instability. Afternoon convection is expected south of I-70, again mainly over the higher terrain. Like today, some of the storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Consensus shows high QPF across portions of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah. Most of the convection ends around sunset with some lingering showers possible around the Four Corners. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1239 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Little change in the long term forecast with a cutoff low off the coast of Southern California, ridging in the Pacific Northwest and high pressure from Texas eastward over the Southern States. With no jet support for the cutoff low, the models struggle to forecast its behavior, showing poor consistency run-to-run and among models on timing and location of the moist plume of the current monsoonal flow. Hence, beyond the first few days, there is little confidence in the details of the forecast. That being said, Monday will see moisture out of New Mexico to push back into the region south of the I-70 corridor with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the region favoring the higher terrain with more numerous storms along the southern face of the San Juan Mountains. Residual moisture will still spawn isolated convection across the northern areas. By Tuesday, deeper moisture with pwats approaching 200% normal pushes north to the Wyoming border bringing widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms across eastern Utah and Western Colorado with numerous storms over the southern and central mountains. With the latest forecast, this will be the best chances for heavy rains leading to possible flash flooding. Wednesday and Thursday may see a down-tick in activity as the deeper moisture moves out of the area. Again, there is low confidence in the details and timing from Tuesday onward. With the cutoff low expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future, we can expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms daily. As said before, the models struggle with these systems and want to eject cutoff lows prematurely. Best to just stay tuned going into the coming week to see how this plays out. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms have kicked off generally over the higher terrain south of the I-70 corridor and over the Uinta Mountains. Look for storm coverage to become more scattered south of the I-70 corridor through the afternoon with isolated storms to the north. The mountain TAF sites will see the most impacts from these storms. This convective activity will drop off around sunset with quiet weather overnight. A few gusty outflows, lightning and brief downpours are possible in showers. Otherwise expect generally quiet weather with westerly winds today becoming more terrain driven downslope winds overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 408 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-131815- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 408 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Plenty of moisture remains across eastern Utah and western Colorado today which should allow some showers and storms to fire this afternoon and evening. The San Juans, and areas south, will be the favored spot for any convection though some isolated showers and storms will be possible for central and northern areas. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and some heavy rain will be possible under the stronger cells. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Moisture content will fluctuate from day to day but afternoon and evening convection will remain a possible threat over the coming days. Like today, southern portions of the forecast area will be favored but isolated convection can't be ruled out for the rest of the forecast area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Pike Ridge Fire started in mid August from a lightning strike 29 miles north of Loma near Douglas Pass. The fire grew to 246 acres before it was contained in mid September.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1122804.