Hail and Damaging Wind in West Virginia, March 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
316 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross
the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday.
A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the
area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make
another brief return early next week before unsettled weather
returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe
thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and
the potential for an isolated tornado along with large hail.
Cloudcover has eroded across portions of the Shenandoah Valley
towards teh Alleghenies, with temperatures and surface based
instability recovering. SFC CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are
observed on the SPC mesoanalysis page along with bulk shear of
40-60 kts. This coupled with 500 hPa height falls near 100 m
will result in the potential for severe thunderstorms, hence the
severe thunderstorm watch issued by SPC until 10 PM for all
of the CWA. There is the potential for cellular storms
ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a linear
feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies along
the leading edge.

The LLJ will be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70
kts at 850 mb and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is a signal amidst
the CAMs for convergence along the cold front as it slowls down
and storms train over the same location in the vicinity of
northeast Maryland. PWs are near record levels based on the 12Z
IAD RAOB, but still near 1.20 inches. Given the high FF
guidance for 1, 3, and 6 hours along with recent dry conditions
have decided not to do a Flood Watch. The potential for an
isolated hydro issue in your typical hydrophobic urbanized area
is non-zero.

Deepening surface cyclone over the western Great Lakes will
move into western Quebec by tonight. Showers will exit by 06Z
but upslope rain/snow showers will persist into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A broad yet deep upper level trough will pivot through the
region Friday into Friday afternoon. This will result in
unsettled conditions through the day with abundant cloudcover.
Upslope snow showers and squalls are likely, with a general
accumulation of 1-3" across the western facing slopes of the
Allegheny Front. The FROUDE number along with mesoscale/global
guidance suggests the potential for an isolated or scattered
showers east of the mountains. It will also be breezy/windy
with gusts 35-40 mph. Ridge axis at the sfc and aloft builds
over the area Fri night into Sat with tranquil conditions and
diminishing winds. A weak northern stream disturbance will move
across the area early on Sunday spreading more showers late
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated showers Sunday morning will be replaced by drier air and a
building area of high pressure Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
Rain showers return to our western mountains and Shenandoah Valley
Tuesday night with a low pressure system arriving from the west. A
chance of rain showers linger Wednesday. As of now, models indicate
that the low pressure bringing rain showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday could slide along our southern border.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR cigs today through this evening along with showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the 20Z-02Z time frame. Gradient winds
up to around 45-50kt are expected this afternoon through early
evening, but deeper showers or thunderstorms may be able to
produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 kt. Showers end by
02Z tonight, then breezy conditions persist into Fri with gusts
25-30kt.

VFR conditions through Monday night. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots
gusts up to 20 knots Sunday and Sunday night. Winds becoming
southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday and Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions this afternoon through this evening with gusts
to around 35-45 kt expected. Showers and thunderstorms may be
capable of producing stronger winds over 50 kt which may require
SMWs. Winds diminish overnight but SCA conditions will persist
through the day Fri.

VFR conditions through Monday night. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots
gusts up to 20 knots Sunday and Sunday night. Winds becoming
southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday and Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will continue to rise in response to strengthening
srly flow. Minor coastal flooding is likely at multiple
locations into the evening and overnight before the winds turn
westerly and anomalies slowly decrease.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ028-030-031-
     038>040-050>057-501-502-505>507.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ052-053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CPB
MARINE...CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
215 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-010200-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
215 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM for the
Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and
I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and
District of Columbia.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of north-central
Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the eastern panhandle
of West Virginia until 8 PM this evening.

A Gale Warning is in effect through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Gale Warning is in effect through Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-010200-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
215 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM for portions
of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and
central and western Maryland.

A Wind Advisory is in effect until 8PM this evening for portions
of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and
central and western Maryland.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-010200-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
215 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM for the
Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West
Virginia, and Highland County, Virginia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Brief moderately heavy snow showers are possible Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later today.

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