A strong cold front pushed into an anomalously warm and humid airmass over central Pennsylvania during the afternoon of March 31, 2022, triggering a QLCS that stretched from the New York state line southward into Maryland. CAPE was relatively low (generally <500 J/kg), but shear was high.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A strong cold front pushed into an anomalously warm and humid airmass over central Pennsylvania during the afternoon of March 31, 2022, triggering a QLCS that stretched from the New York state line southward into Maryland. CAPE was relatively low (generally <500 J/kg), but shear was high. There were several bowing segments within the QLCS, and there were a number of wind damage reports (and one quarter-sized hail report) that resulted.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 6:23 AM EST, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 723 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong south-southwest prefrontal flow will bring a significant warmup to central PA today with temperatures ramping into the 60s to near 70 degrees. This surge of warmth will be accompanied by rounds of showers and the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Breezy and cooler conditions return for the end of the week along with rain/snow showers in the western and central Alleghenies to kick of the month of April. Fair and seasonable weather is expected to start the weekend followed by an increasing chance of showers on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 720AM/1120Z: Final update included an increase in POPs to match radar trends and adjustments to temps which have remained in non-diurnal (warming) trend outside of the sheltered valleys in east-central PA. Previous Discussion Issued: 452 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Non-diurnal (rising) temp trend continues through the predawn hours (outside of some sheltered/decoupled valley locales) thanks to increasing southerly low level flow/warm advection. An unseasonably mild start today will yield a very warm afternoon with highs in the 60s to near 70F or +10-15F above last-day-of- March climo. Low clouds in the lower Susquehanna Valley should slow/temper the rate of warming to some extent this morning. Hires model data shows scattered to numerous rain showers developing along the spine of the Alleghenies this morning and gradually expanding eastward through mid day. The primary focus in the near term period will be on the potential for strong/severe t-storms later in the afternoon/early evening. A few cloud breaks should allow a north-south oriented ribbon of marginal instability (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop ahead of a strong cold front pushing eastward from Ohio across central PA between ~18Z Thu-03Z Fri. Prefrontal low level wind profiles are quite impressive with SWly 850mb LLJ of 50-70 kts or +3SD. This alone combined with BL mixing will support gradient-driven peak wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range or just under advy criteria. This low CAPE/high SHEAR setup favors a linear convective mode with damaging winds being the main threat. However, SPC left the door open to increase wind/tornado probs should greater instability be realized. Deep southerly flow ahead of the cold front will transport anomalous moisture into CPA with precipitable water values ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 inches or +1.5 to +2.5SD. Given divergent and diffluent flow aloft, the PWAT values support the potential for rainfall between 1.0 and 1.5 inches in an hour where brief cell training occurs. While 0-6 km mean winds near 50 kt will favor fast individual cell movement, orientation of convective bands with the mean wind will allow for short term southwest to northeast training segments with potential for 1 to 2+ inches of rain. WPC has maintained a MRGL risk ERO (1 out of 4) which essentially overlays with the SPC D1 SLGT risk SWO (2 out of 5). There should be a relative min in shower activity early tonight before upper low and colder air aloft overspread the area into Friday morning. This colder NW flow pattern will result in an uptick in rain/snow showers across the western and central Alleghenies with a coating of snow possible at the highest elevations west of US219 by 12Z Friday. Temps will tumble (20-30 degrees from daytime highs) tonight falling into the low 30s NW to mid 40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Breezy and colder end to the week with lake enhanced and upslope rain/snow showers continuing across the western and central Alleghenies to kick off the month of April (no foolin'). Vort max embedded in mid level trough will swing through PA with steep lapse rates providing some support for brief heavy snow showers/localized squalls which could lead to difficult travel at times due to quickly lowered visibility. Air temps and sfc Tw hold AOA 32F across the higher elevations during the day so would expect accumulations to be hard to come by. Warm road temps during the day are also a limiting factor this time of year/late in the season. Temps trend colder Friday night, but model guidance shows snow showers tapering off across the western/northern mtns as center of 1025mb high pressure reaches western PA by 12Z Saturday. The high will provide a fair and seasonable start to the first weekend of April with maxT getting back to near normal vs. climo. Shower chances are increasing Saturday night with another shortwave dropping southeast through the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday looks showery and cool as a shortwave/clipper rolls in from the Grt Lks. After a small ridge of high pressure provides fair and seasonable weather again for Monday, a more unsettled pattern will set up for the remainder of next week. Long range guidance shows a deep trough digging into the central US and becoming partially cut off from the main jet stream as it moves slowly eastward. A shortwave trough will ride into the Midwest and Tennessee Valley Tue-Wed as a W-E oriented warm frontal boundary slowly lifts toward PA. This will bring an initial chance for showers to the region. By late week, a more noteworthy upper low will drop into the Great Lakes from western Canada bringing potential for more widespread showers. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning with the exception of MDT and LNS where low clouds have moved in from the east leading to MVFR cigs at those locations. Strong southerly winds will support LLWS at all airfields through much of the day today. Chance of strong to severe storms today, entering the northwest areas like KBFD and KJST early aft, then spreading east through the afternoon and early evening. Outlook... Fri...Wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees. Sct snow showers and IFR/MVFR conditions northwest 1/2. Sat-Sun...MVFR cigs west bcmg VFR. Rain/snow showers possible Sat night into Sunday. Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...RXR/Colbert AVIATION...Gartner/Travis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 PAZ004>006-010-011-011615- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron- 1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible during the through the early afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-011615- Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin- Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph this afternoon could blow around unsecured objects, knock down tree limbs, and result in difficult driving for high profile vehicles. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts 60 mph or greater are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible and could lead to short term flooding primarily affecting places that can experience rapid runoff. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. Lambert
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1010 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
PAZ004-311430-
Warren PA-
1010 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
...A GUSTY SHOWER WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 1030
AM EDT...
At 1010 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower 13 miles
southwest of Jamestown, moving northeast at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Spring Creek, Lottsville, Sugar Grove and Bear Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4200 7915 4181 7961 4199 7961 4200 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 234DEG 52KT 4200 7947
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1144 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
PAZ010-311615-
Elk PA-
1144 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
...A GUSTY SHOWER WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELK COUNTY THROUGH 1215 PM
EDT...
At 1143 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower over
Marienville, moving northeast at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. Lightning is also possible.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Johnsonburg, Wilcox, James City and East Branch Dam.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4160 7848 4160 7842 4135 7893 4137 7898
4135 7902 4136 7904 4134 7909 4142 7909
4143 7906 4145 7906 4145 7898 4144 7897
4144 7896 4162 7895 4163 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 230DEG 51KT 4142 7905
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
PAZ005-311645-
McKean PA-
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCKEAN COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM EDT...
At 1205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kane, moving northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Kane, Port Allegany, Smethport, Rew, Coryville, Cyclone, Kinzua
Bridge State Park, Crosby, Mount Jewett, Eldred, Ceres and Bradford
Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4199 7821 4185 7821 4163 7859 4163 7895
4200 7843 4200 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 230DEG 46KT 4165 7879
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1235 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
PAZ024-025-033-311700-
Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
1235 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SOMERSET...
NORTHWESTERN BLAIR AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...
At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ebensburg to near Johnstown to 11 miles
west of Windber. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Windber, Ebensburg, Nanty-Glo, Portage, Westmont, Belmont,
Geistown, Southmont, Patton, Cresson, Gallitzin, Vinco, Loretto,
Dale, East Conemaugh, Salix-Beauty Line Park, Davidsville,
Beaverdale-Lloydell and Paint.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4036 7900 4060 7886 4065 7853 4065 7839
4033 7862 4025 7881 4018 7901 4017 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 227DEG 46KT 4059 7869 4039 7887 4022 7905
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ColbertThe State College radar (KCCX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:35 UTC.
27 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree at the intersection of Kriner Road and Salem Road near Luthersburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree at the intersection of Winterburne Road and Anderson Creek Road to the east of DuBois.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced numerous reports of trees and wires down in Bellefonte, including on High Street near the courthouse and on Sunnyside Blvd.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple large pine trees along I-80.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail along I-80 in Centre County east of Howard.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees along Fox Hill Road near University Park airport.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires on 6th Street in Williamsport.
Scattered light rain showers contributed to the mixing down of strong winds from aloft, resulting in wind gusts estimated near 45 mph that ripped a roof off of row housing on the 10 block of E South Street in Carlisle, PA. Ten residents were displaced. Time estimated from 911 call log and nearby personal weather stations.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down wires onto a house in Mapleton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced several reports of trees and wires down across Lewistown, including on the exit ramp from U.S. Route 322.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires along Lincoln Highway just to the east of Breezewood.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 65 mph snapped and uprooted several trees along an intermittent path extending from Rohes Rd to near Dog Farm Road in Cherry Twp, Sullivan County, PA. An outbuilding was also destroyed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced several reports of trees and wires down in Milton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down power poles east of Milton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced multiple reports of trees down a couple miles northeast of Mifflintown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced several reports of trees on wires across northern Columbia County.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees on Railroad Street next to Kelly Road near Dushore.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Kreamer.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced multiple reports of trees down across Snyder County, including on the 3600 block of Salem Road in Penn Township and on Fisher Road Monroe Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree onto a house on Philadelphia Avenue in Chambersburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Bloomsburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires west of Newville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires to the northwest of York Springs.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Progress.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Barlow.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced multiple reports of trees on wires east of York.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires in Marietta.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down wires onto Route 772 east of Rothsville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires along Greenfield Road east of Lancaster.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, March 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1007891, 1007893, 1007896, 1007897, 1005944, 1007899, 1007901, 1005858, 1007903, 1007906, 1007972, 1005859, 1008070, 1008134, 1008129, 1008135, 1007974, 1008133, 1008066, 1008054, 1008132, 1008138, 1008076, 1008131, 1008130, 1008137, 1008136, 1008139, 1008140.