NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 9:59 PM UTC, 8 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 15, 9:59 PM UTC, 8 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
359 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A weak backdoor front and deep easterly flow will
bring strong winds to the northern Wasatch Front late this evening
through tomorrow morning. A closed low system will also skirt
across Arizona through the day tomorrow, bringing low end chances
of precipitation for far southern and eastern Utah. Mild and dry
conditions return by Monday as higher pressure builds back into
the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM (through 12Z/6AM Monday)...Afternoon water vapor
imagery depicts the center of the low that was previously
offshore of the southern California coast has now pushed inland
over the northern Baja-California region, with a cloud shield now
pushing into far southern Utah. This low is progged to continue an
eastward track across the southwestern U.S. through Monday, with
the best chances, albeit low, for precipitation reaching far
southern and eastern Utah by Sunday afternoon. Very minimal
impacts, at best, are expected with this southern cutoff low
system.
The greater phenomena of note, however, will exist across
northern Utah as a weak upper trough will attempt to phase with
the aforementioned low, allowing a weak backdoor front to push
into northern Utah this evening. In addition to the surface cold
frontal boundary and associated east-west oriented surface
pressure gradient, overhead flow will be nearly due easterly from
~700mb through 250mb. What this means is that we'll have all winds
aligned to force this colder airmass eastward, constricting and
accelerating flow through the canyon areas of the northern Wasatch
Front. Winds will begin to ramp up after sundown this evening,
likely creeping above the 40mph mark by 10PM near east-west
oriented canyons. Dynamically, a widespread, strong downslope wind
event is not supported by the forecast environment. However, an
above surface stable layer will exist following the frontal
passage in northern Utah, which will help to accelerate flow
through canyon areas. Timing-wise, expecting winds to reach their
peak through the early morning hours tomorrow (likely after 3am)
and gradually decrease through the late morning. Some localized
stronger downslope winds will be possible near Farmington Canyon
given its lower crest level. In general, winds will be gusting
upwards of 45-50 mph in the prone areas, and may reach as high as
55 to 60 mph near Farmington Canyon. Existing wind advisory
headlines remain in effect for Davis, Weber, eastern Box Elder,
and Cache Counties. Have not upgraded Davis/ Weber County to a
high wind warning largely due to the fact that confidence is below
50% that the local area will gust above 58 mph... but it is
entirely possible. As mentioned, winds should decrease below
advisory levels after ~10AM, but hi-res guidance shows potential
for winds to remain in the 30-40mph range through the early
afternoon.
Outside of the winds, this backdoor front will really only bring
sufficient cooling to Uinta County, Wyoming and the western Uinta
Basin, where ~5-10 degrees of cooling is expected. Elsewhere
across northern Utah, only subtle cooling is expected (~2-4
degrees).
.LONG TERM (after 12Z/6AM Monday)...The long term period can be
characterized by a persistent ridge over our area. The position of
the ridge axis is expected to remain relatively unchanged through
next week. Temperatures for the week are expected to be 10 to 15
degrees above normal for most of the CWA, while in Washington County
the temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees above normal. This means
that high temperatures for most of the CWA will be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s, while in Washington County the high temperatures will be
in the low to mid 80s.
Towards the end of next week, a cut-off low pressure system that is
sitting to our southwest, begins to shift eastward. This has the
potential to bring precipitation chances back to southern Utah.
Something more of note is that ensemble forecasts have a trough
moving into our area Saturday. As of now, 70% of ensembles have the
trough effecting our area. This would enhance the chance for
precipitation and bring cooler weather. Within this 70% though, half
of the ensembles support a trough that is further north. This would
limit precipitation chances but still bring some cooler weather. The
other 30% of all ensembles continue to have the ridge in place with
the cut-off low moving eastward. This would only effect southern
Utah as to bring the chance for precipitation back into the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected at the KSLC
terminals through the TAF period. Light northwest winds will last
until around 03Z when we expect easterly winds to increase overnight
into Sunday morning with 20-25 mph with winds at the terminals with
even stronger gusts expected closer to the base of the Wasatch
mountains as downsloping winds develop. Easterly winds will calm and
turn back to the south around 12z before transitioning back to the
northwest by 17z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected at
all terminals in Utah and SW Wyoming through the TAF period.
Easterly winds will increase Saturday evening across northern Utah,
specifically north of KSLC, with gusts approaching 40-50 mph near
the base of the Wasatch front as downsloping winds develop while the
rest of the CWA sees more light and diurnally driven winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A weak backdoor cold front will bring subtle cooling and
increased humidity values to northern Utah while a closed low
system moves across Arizona and brings increased cloud cover,
cooler temperatures, and slight chances for precipitation over far
southern Utah. For northern Utah, a decrease in temperatures by
about 2-3 degrees is anticipated alongside an increase in humidity
by ~5%. For southern Utah, temperatures will cool by ~5-10 degrees
alongside an increase in humidity by ~10%. Sufficient moisture will
just skirt along the far southern Utah border, bringing only slight
chances for minimal precipitation (i.e. virtually zero chance for
wetting rain) on Sunday afternoon. This system will track out of the
region by Monday, bringing a return to high pressure and the associated
mild and dry conditions across Utah.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for
UTZ103-104-107.
WY...None.
&&
Webber / Cecava / Selbig
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