NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 4, 11:15 AM UTC, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 4, 11:15 AM UTC, 4 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
415 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving Pacific Northwest storm system will impact the area
through early next week, with the potential of a stormy pattern
continuing this upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...
A low pressure system spinning off the northern California and
Oregon coasts today will eject a shortwave eastward across Oregon
and Idaho today. While the wave tracks east-northeastward it will
interact with the stalled frontal boundary along the UT/Idaho
border. Precipitation will develop along the boundary across
southern Idaho and far northern Utah later today. Once the wave
passes through central Idaho today, this will kick the frontal
boundary southward through northern Utah this evening through
tonight. Given the lack of upper-level support with the front, it
will slow and stall just south of the I-80 corridor by Monday
morning where it remain through Monday.
In terms of sensible impacts, southwesterly flow will increase
today south of the boundary across state, which will help to
continue a warming trend aloft. There remains some uncertainty
with how much inverted valley locations will mix out today,
however valley locations farther north and with the snow on the
ground are more likely to remain inverted than those farther south
and without snow on the ground.
In particular the Cache Valley presents an interesting forecast
challenge, as the deeper snow pack and proximity to the boundary
give it the best chance of remaining inverted. First of all this
would mean high temperatures today would likely stay below
freezing, but as the warm nose aloft surges farther north and
precipitation develops along the boundary, this could setup the
valley to switch from snow over the freezing rain. However, if the
mixing ends up being a little better and temperatures climb above
freezing, then precipitation could go entirely over to rain for a
period this evening. Given the temperature forecast uncertainty
have elected to introduce a chance (30%) of freezing rain into
the forecast, with the most likely timing being from this evening
through around midnight tonight before cold advection moves in
behind the front switching the p-type back to snow. Will have to
closely watch temperatures in the Cache today to see if this
freezing rain threat will materialize.
Otherwise, valley locations south of the frontal boundary will
largely see precipitation start out as rain this evening before
switching over to snow overnight tonight before the precipitation
ends. This will limit valley snow accumulations to being minimal,
largely less than inch. Mountain locations will fare better for
accumulating snowfall, with many northern Utah mountain locations
seeing amounts of 4-8 inches, with locally higher values up to 12
inches possible near Tony Grove, in the upper Cottonwoods and in
the western Uintas. Snowfall rates in the mountains may peak
around 1 inch as the front moves through tonight, however, this
front is much less dynamic than the last storm system given the
decoupled upper level support, with more a prolonged period of
lighter snowfall rates, particularly where the boundary stalls
just south of the I-80 corridor on Monday. Nevertheless, given the
totals and some impact reaching into the Monday morning commute
have elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern
mountain zones from later today through Monday. The boundary
will drift farther south and weaken as it moves through central
Utah and into southern Utah Monday night.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...
The long term period will begin with a trough axis extending from
northwest Nevada to the Central Coast of California. While
ensemble solutions in general swing the trough eastward through
Wednesday evening, uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of
the system. Roughly 40 percent of ensemble members focus energy
across southern Utah through the period, while around a third
favor a more northward focus of the system, with precipitation
potential more favored for central, and possibly even northern,
Utah. The remaining members suggest the system will impact
Arizona. With a shortwave pivoting northeast out of the base of
the trough, a 110 knot upper jet ejecting toward the southern
Great Basin, ample moisture, and some frontogenetic forcing, the
potential exists for an advisory-level event from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night across southern Utah. Given
uncertainty at this point, modest QPF and snow amounts look
reasonable, but something to monitor. Given cooler temperatures
aloft with 700MB temperatures dropping to minus 8C, precipitation
type will be primarily snow, except for the lower elevations of
southern Utah, including St. George and portions of Glen Canyon
National Recreation Area.
Thursday looks to be benign weather-wise, with some ridging over the
Great Basin favoring dry conditions and somewhat moderating
temperatures, though still below normal.
As the progressive pattern continues, attention on Friday and
Saturday is focused on a trough diving southeast into the Great
Basin. A split exists with two scenarios in mind. Just over half
of the ensemble members favor a deep trough moving across the region
Friday into Saturday, while the remaining members indicate the base
of the trough working through the Eastern Great Basin on Saturday,
12-24 hours slower. Either way, given depth of trough, cold
temperatures, and a decent moisture tap, a potential exists for a
winter storm to impact the region late this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
KSLC...Ample cloud cover can be expected through the period, with
ceilings generally remaining above 7,000 feet until the passage
of a cold this evening. This stated, a brief period of ceilings
around 5,000 will be possible through mid morning. While drainage
winds should be the dominate flow though late morning, a light
northwest flow can be expected at times. With the passage of the
cold front this evening, expect a quick transition from rain to
snow, with MVFR conditions developing.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Generally cloudy skies
can be expected over northern Utah and extreme southwest Wyoming
through the period. Pockets of MVFR ceilings and visibilities due
to fog can be expected this morning, with IFR conditions possible,
including for the KLGU,KEVW, and KHCR vicinities.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities due to snow can be expected across
the northern portions of Utah and extreme southwest Wyoming this
evening into tonight as a cold front drops southeast into the
region.
VFR conditions will prevail across central and southern Utah through
the valid TAF period. Breezy conditions will develop this
afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 AM MST Monday for
UTZ110.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MST
Monday for UTZ111-112.
WY...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Church
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
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