A stalled warm front and plentiful amounts of atmospheric moisture helped to set the stage for a persistent wet pattern that lasted several days in early December across Middle Tennessee. By December 7, 2022, an estimated 2 to 4 inches over the course of this event had begun to cause creeks to overfill their banks.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A stalled warm front and plentiful amounts of atmospheric moisture helped to set the stage for a persistent wet pattern that lasted several days in early December across Middle Tennessee. By December 7, 2022, an estimated 2 to 4 inches over the course of this event had begun to cause creeks to overfill their banks. Minor flooding was reported across areas mainly south of Interstate 40, particularly in the Spring Hill area where several flooding reports were received along with road closures.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 7, 11:07 AM CST, 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1107 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 Updated suite of forecast products to try to emphasize more of a potential for isolated thunderstorms through remainder of morning into afternoon hours today per current and expected limited instability. Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly gridded values. Current temperature trends generally in line with forecasted afternoon high temperatures. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 At 2 AM CST, a cluster of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms had moved from west TN into our northwest counties. Scattered showers were noted elsewhere across the Mid State. The main batch of showers and storms will impact area along and north of i-40 through daybreak with widespread 1 inch rainfall amounts and some local 2+ amounts. A couple of advisories may be needed for brief, local flooding from the heaviest downpours, but since these cells will be moving along, we do not expect major flooding issues. The heaviest actions should move through Nashville before 6 AM CST, but we will still have a slow, wet morning commute for Metro. There was concern earlier about some conditional severe potential with some of these storms. At this point, it looks like the instability is not so much surface based, but distributed through the very moist column, so the main effect of the available layer cape will be to enhance rainfall rates in the stronger cells. Through the daytime, the main axis of showers and isolated thunder will gradually sink southward and coverage will decrease as a surface low pressure moves away from the area and the main frontal zone sinks southward. Daytime rainfall amounts from one half to 1 inch may bring some nuisance water issues, but not any widespread or major flooding problems. We will keep very mild and muggy conditions with most locations holding in the mid to upper 60s through the day. For tonight, most areas will have some breaks from rain in the evening, but the front will start to become active again late in the night. Otherwise, the evening and overnight hours will be foggy and misty. Thursday will bring foggy, misty conditions with scattered showers in the morning, then increasing coverage of showers and isolated thunder in the afternoon as the next wave approaches. Rainfall amounts Thursday should be mostly less than one half inch. It will be another unusually mild and muggy December day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 124 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into Friday morning as the next wave approaches with a cold front. Once again, some local downpours may cause nuisance standing water, but the threat for significant flooding seems low. After the front passes Friday morning, we will break out of the cloudy, muggy pattern and drier, slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the region. For the weekend, the pattern will be stay unsettled. There will be dry times and temps will be closer to normal. But, the passage of a couple of waves will bring scattered showers, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Looking ahead, the next big system will come Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern suggests some severe weather potential, but the models do not have good agreement on the strength and path of the main system. Regardless, it certainly looks showery and windy as a cold front approaches. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 MVFR to LIFR conditions expected throughout the current TAF period. Cigs will remain IFR to LIFR with periods of -RA and -DZ moving through the area. Could see some periods of heavier rainfall, bringing vis down as well. Light, westerly winds will become northerly around 00Z, before becoming southeasterly near the end of the current TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 55 68 60 / 90 60 80 90 Clarksville 65 50 64 56 / 60 70 90 80 Crossville 64 53 62 55 / 100 30 90 90 Columbia 70 55 70 60 / 100 60 70 80 Cookeville 67 55 65 58 / 100 40 80 90 Jamestown 64 51 62 55 / 100 30 90 90 Lawrenceburg 70 56 70 60 / 100 50 60 80 Murfreesboro 70 55 69 60 / 100 50 70 90 Waverly 66 52 67 57 / 80 80 80 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Adcock
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 214 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-080815- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson- Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury- Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee- Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 214 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms could produce some localized flooding of mainly low lying and poorly drained areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday through early Friday morning. Heavy downpours could cause some brief, localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 13
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022
TNZ065-066-080-071245-
Cumberland TN-Van Buren TN-White TN-
610 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Cumberland, northeastern Van Buren and southeastern White Counties
through 645 AM CST...
At 610 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spencer, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Spencer, Fall Creek Falls State Park and Indian Rock Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3577 8493 3575 8502 3575 8503 3577 8504
3576 8507 3577 8510 3577 8525 3576 8527
3572 8527 3563 8535 3565 8548 3584 8545
3585 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 275DEG 31KT 3575 8538
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
RoseThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Persistent rainfall which was heavy at times forced the closure of McLemore Avenue in Spring Hill due to flooding over the roadway.
Persistent rainfall which was heavy at times forced the closure of Miles Johnson Road in Spring Hill due to water overfilling the creeks.
Persistent rainfall which was heavy at times forced the closure of Hill Hughes Road near Fairview due to flooding.
Minor flooding was reported in the Spring Hill Walmart parking lot, likely from the nearby creek overflowing its banks.
Persistent rainfall which was heavy at times forced the closure of Rally Hill Road near Spring Hill due to flooding.
The Spring Hill Fire Department shared photos of minor flooding at Fischer Park due to the nearby creek overflowing its banks.
Minor flooding was reported along Patton Road due to Nelson Creek overflowing its banks near College Grove.
Minor flooding was reported along Eady Road near Bell Buckle.
Minor flooding was reported in Unionville along Squire Jones Road and Sudberry Road.
Minor flooding was reported along Thick Road near Chapel Hill.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1060501, 1060502, 1060504, 1060505, 1060506, 1060507, 1060508, 1060509, 1060510, 1060511.