What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 23, 6:51 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 23, 6:51 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
751 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move to the Carolina coast on Thursday.
Cooler air will begin spilling into the region on Friday, with
additional disturbances arriving over the weekend from the northwest
to reinforce the cooler air across the area. Light snow showers will
be possible across the higher ridges of the North Carolina mountains
over the weekend. Expect warmer weather in the first half of next
week ahead of the next cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 6pm EDT Showers have been a bit widely scattered early this
evening with with some more general convective showers over western
NC. Development of stronger and possibly severe storms is possible
generally near and southeast of the I85 corridor. Risk for severe
development will end from west to east as frontal system progresses
southeastward, and after dark as the boundary layer becomes more
stable. Deep layer shear is quite strong, and combined with some
CAPE will continue a risk for severe weather.
Overnight, as postfrontal air impinges on the region, profiles will
rapidly dry out. All the CAMs (with the exception of the bullish
and likely overdone NAMnest) depict an end to rain by 01-03Z and
steady clearing after midnight. Temperatures nonetheless look to
stay 7-9 degrees above normal tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Wednesday: The expected trough passage may be a
bit slower than previously anticipated, leading to a prolonged
period of west to northwest flow atop the region Friday into the
weekend. The upslope flow near the TN border will likely support at
least isolated showers at times, especially north of I-40. Lowering
heights/thicknesses will support well below normal temperatures
especially across the mountains and may support a mixture with or
changeover to snow at times at higher elevations. Still challenging
to pin down the potential for accumulations at the highest
elevations as guidance is struggling with the placement of a potent
short-wave trough Saturday or Saturday night. Decent upper support
and tightening surface pressure gradient will support gusty winds
(possibly reaching advisory level across the mountains). If fuels
dry out fast enough, the gusty winds and drying east of the
mountains may support elevated fire danger. Despite continued wind
into the overnight, Saturday night will be notably cold for this
time of year with lows in the 30s except 20s above 3000 feet and in
sheltered valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12 PM EDT Wednesday: Near normal forecast confidence takes a
nose dive by mid week as guidance cannot decide how much phasing
occurs with northern and southern stream jets over the central U.S.
Short-wave ridging will support temperatures rebounding to at least
to near normal early in the week. Although one more day of frosty
morning lows is possible Monday, especially for northern areas.
Prolonged dry conditions could lead to elevated fire conditions
should low afternoon relative humidity values prevail. A warm front
lifting north in response to building heights may brush the area
with a myriad of mainly mid to high clouds Monday into Monday night.
Cannot rule out a few sprinkles or showers focused across the
northern mountains during this time. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny
skies to prevail.
Unsettled weather will likely return sometime mid-week (Wednesday or
Thursday), but it may be short lived as the weather pattern becomes
zonal and more progressive. Temperatures will likely peak above
normal before the potential cold front passage midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated areas of severe weather have been
seen this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Line
currently just southeast of the mountains will decline in intensity
after dark, with remnants moving southeast to TAF sites through 8Z.
Current southerly to southwesterly wind gusts to 25kts will also
decline after dark. KAVL and KHKY are the only 2 TAF sites likely
to see thunder this evening, with other sites having possible
lighter showers after dark. As strong upper system moves eastward,
surface winds become more westerly on Thursday, and will again be
gusty during the day. This will help to dry soundings, and IFR
conditions will be prevalent by early Thursday morning and
afterward.
Outlook: Clearing should continue into Friday. Low-level moisture
and NW flow will bring an increase in clouds and potentially some
light precipitation into the forecast Friday evening into Saturday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR/WJM
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...WJM
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 23, 7:49 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
849 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ037-057-071-072-082-506-SCZ004>014-019-250100-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Davie-Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Eastern McDowell-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
849 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging
winds and a brief tornado possible. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as well, and isolated flooding could result.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
NCZ035-036-056-068>070-502-504-508-510-250100-
Alexander-Iredell-Catawba-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
849 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...TORNADO WATCH 69 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Tornado Watch.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging
winds and a brief tornado possible. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as well, and isolated flooding could result.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-505-SCZ001>003-250100-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-McDowell Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
849 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the
evening. Main threats will be gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud to
ground lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
NCZ501-503-507-509-250100-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
849 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...TORNADO WATCH 69 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Tornado Watch.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging
winds and a brief tornado possible. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as well, and isolated flooding could result.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Mar 23, 5:41 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
641 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
NCZ053-065-232315-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
641 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Henderson and eastern Buncombe Counties through 715 PM EDT...
At 641 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Downtown Asheville, or near Bent Creek, moving
northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, Arden, West Asheville, North
Asheville, Black Mountain, Fletcher, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe
County and Biltmore Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3561 8227 3560 8229 3559 8229 3556 8226
3555 8221 3536 8266 3545 8277 3575 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 229DEG 36KT 3548 8261
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Mar 23, 5:51 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
GAZ010-NCZ062>064-SCZ001-232315-
Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
651 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN
RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 14 miles northeast of Clayton, or near Highlands,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Highlands, Cashiers, Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Lake Glenville,
Scaly Mountain, Sapphire, Bad Creek, Wolf Mountain and Pine Mountain.
Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3525 8310 3527 8302 3509 8284 3490 8321
3503 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 230DEG 23KT 3502 8321
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Mar 23, 6:17 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
717 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
NCZ033-050-501>506-232345-
McDowell Mountains NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Avery NC-
Mitchell NC-
717 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
McDowell, southeastern Mitchell, southwestern Caldwell, southeastern
Avery and northwestern Burke Counties through 745 PM EDT...
At 717 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Marion, or 7 miles northwest of Lake James, moving
northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gamewell, Crossnore, Table Rock, Linville Falls, B.R.
Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Lake James, Lake James State
Park, B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, Edgemont and
Pineola.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3611 8185 3586 8155 3570 8202 3581 8215
3582 8213 3583 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 230DEG 49KT 3581 8200
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Mar 23, 7:13 PM EST, 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
813 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-005-006-240045-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
813 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Transylvania, south central Henderson, northwestern Greenville and
northern Pickens Counties through 845 PM EDT...
At 813 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Pickens, or near Jocassee Gorges, moving northeast
at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pickens, Slater-Marietta, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jocassee Gorges,
Jones Gap State Park, Lake Jocassee, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Table
Rock State Park, Caesars Head State Park and Dupont State Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3493 8291 3494 8290 3495 8290 3495 8291
3496 8292 3497 8292 3498 8294 3499 8294
3524 8254 3501 8237 3483 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 238DEG 29KT 3495 8282
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Mar 23, 7:48 PM EST, 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
848 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
SCZ001-002-005-240130-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
848 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pickens and
east central Oconee Counties through 930 PM EDT...
At 848 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Walhalla, or near Lake Keowee, moving northeast at
25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pickens, Easley, Six Mile, Lake Keowee, Keowee Toxaway State Park,
Jocassee Gorges, Liberty, Table Rock State Park, Sunset and Sassafras
Mountain.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3474 8290 3478 8288 3481 8289 3481 8290
3478 8295 3484 8300 3508 8278 3507 8278
3507 8277 3505 8275 3505 8273 3485 8254
3474 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 228DEG 23KT 3484 8291
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Mar 23, 7:56 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
856 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
NCZ065-507-509-510-SCZ003-007-240145-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
856 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Rutherford,
southeastern Henderson, Polk, northeastern Greenville and
northwestern Spartanburg Counties through 945 PM EDT...
At 856 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Hendersonville, or near Pleasant Ridge State Park,
moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hendersonville, Columbus, Flat Rock, Landrum, Laurel Park, Tryon,
Saluda, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park and Pleasant
Ridge State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for western
North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 8219 3540 8218 3520 8203 3505 8253
3514 8258 3515 8258 3516 8259 3521 8260
3525 8260 3547 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 236DEG 31KT 3512 8249
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CAC