Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Florida, March 23, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
305 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING - PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A broken squall line with individual storms that may be severe with
the potential for damaging wind gusts, small hail, and possible
isolated tornadoes is approaching from the west early this morning.

Expected arrival times for the line will be in the western FL
Panhandle and SE Alabama counties between 1-5am CT. For areas along
and east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers to as far west
as Thomasville and Tallahassee, storms should arrive between 6AM-
12PM ET and for all areas east of the aforementioned places, from
roughly Tifton to Valdosta down in the SE Big Bend storms should
arrive after 10AM this morning. Ahead of the squall line, non-
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. Widespread
PoPs of around 90 percent through the day today.

Severe potential will begin to diminish this evening following the
sunset as instability and shear wanes. The overall system is
expected to slow down, which will allow for moisture to advect back
into the region this evening into the overnight hours. With that,
another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms (sub-severe to
marginally severe) is forecast to develop this evening through
tomorrow. The main threat for this round will be the heavy rainfall,
which could lead to localized and river flooding.

Temperatures today will be in the mid 70s this afternoon and will
cool down to the low 50s for SE AL and western Panhandle counties
and to the upper 50s in the SE Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
beginning of this period, mainly over the eastern half of the CWA
and ahead of a secondary cold front. Weak instability does develop
into the Florida Big Bend and adjacent southern Georgia counties
by late morning so that any more robust storms could bring a
strong to locally damaging wind gust or perhaps a tornado given
the residual strong wind field. Thus, SPC kept the marginal risk
for severe weather in these areas. This area of convection will
slowly move east and out of our CWA by Thursday night with high
pressure moving in by later Friday.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Dry and seasonably mild conditions to start this period as
northwest flow is in place downstream from amplifying ridging
through the central US. As high pressure slides by Monday, and
surface winds become southerly, a warming trend is expected. There
is an upstream system progged to arrive into the Mid South
Wednesday but will remain west to keep our area dry. Highs will be
in the low to mid 70s to start the period with mid 80s possible
towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

Not much has changed from the 00z update. There are currently
some light pop-up showers around ABY and VLD, which will move in a
NNE direction. Conditions are expected to deteriorate from west
to east into the morning as a severe squall line moves across the
area. Gusty south winds continue ahead of the line which is slated
to arrive at DHN/ECP between 8-11Z, then TLH/ABY from 10-15Z, and
VLD after 15Z. The worst wx is expected during those time frames
where gusts up to 40+ kts and IFR conds could occur within the
strongest storms. Gusty winds then switch out of the SW/W after
the main line moves through. Showers will redevelop around 00z
Thursday from ECP to ABY line and eastward, and the showers are
expected to continue through the afternoon Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain hazardous through this afternoon as
strong pre-frontal winds ahead of a cold front affect area waters.
High- end small craft advisory conditions are expected through
late this afternoon with southerly winds around 20 to 30 knots.
A line of severe storms will move across our western waters this
morning, and then spread east through the rest of the day. After
the front conditions will still remain elevated for Thursday and
into the weekend with borderline cautionary/advisory level
conditions likely through early next week. Rain moves out by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong to severe line of storms will be moving east across the
Tri- State region this morning through the day. Ahead of the line,
gusty southerly winds up to 40 mph will be possible. This will
lead to high dispersions for our eastern Big Bend counties this
afternoon before the rain arrives. Thunderstorms associated with
the line will pose a severe weather threat mainly in the form of
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes through tonight. Pockets of
heavy rainfall are also possible with this system. Winds become
southwesterly to westerly behind the squall line and remain gusty.
Dispersions look to increase behind the main line this evening in
our AL counties. High dispersions will return on Thursday
afternoon for our AL and GA counties and the entire region for
Friday.

Rain chances linger through Thursday, especially along and east
of Tallahassee, before ending by Friday morning. Dry conditions
follow, with min RH dropping into the 30s and 40s heading into the
weekend. The only fire concerns the next 2-3 days are high
dispersions for portions of the Tri-state area today through
tomorrow, and widespread high dispersions on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts are anticipated through
Thursday with isolated higher amounts as this surface low system
slowly moves across the region. isolated instances of flooding
could occur in areas that received heavy rainfall late last week.

Minor flooding on portions of the Apalachicola, Chipola, and
Choctawhatchee rivers are ongoing and elevated to near minor
flooding is observed on portions of the Ochlockonee,
Withlacoochee, and Suwanee rivers. Rainfall will likely sustain river
levels across the area through the week, but should higher rainfall
amounts occur, especially across the Ochlockonee basin, minor
flooding can't be ruled out.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  55  66  49  73 /  90  60  60  20   0
Panama City   73  55  67  56  70 /  90  40  30  10   0
Dothan        75  50  68  47  70 /  80  20  10   0   0
Albany        76  55  67  47  71 /  90  40  30  10   0
Valdosta      76  56  65  47  72 /  80  70  70  30   0
Cross City    80  58  67  50  72 /  50  80  90  50   0
Apalachicola  73  56  66  55  70 /  90  60  60  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for Coastal Bay-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Scholl