Rip Current in Puerto Rico, June 19, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1115 AM AST Sun Jun 19 2022

.UPDATE...
No change to the inherited short term forecast and reasoning at
this time. Recent satellite imagery and the Doppler weather radar
as well as satelite derived precipitable water products and TJSJ
19/12Z upper air sounding, all suggest a drier and stable airmass
in place with precipitable water values down to around 1.30 inches
with little or no precipitation over and around the islands at
this time. However, some isolated locally and diurnally induced
afternoon convection will remain possible mainly over parts of
the west interior for the rest of the day. During the early evening
and overnight a moisture surge will quickly cross the region increasing
the chance for showers along the windward side of the islands and over
the coastal waters. Increasing easterly winds will also lead to breezy
conditions, especially along the coastal areas during the rest of today
and on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...No change to the previous AVN discussion.
Prevailing VFR conds to continue with Flight VIS P6SM, but with
SLGHT HZ ALQDS at local terminals. Otherwise mostly SCT lyrs nr
FL025...FL050 with isold SHRA ovr regional waters and en route
btw islands. SFC wnd incr to 15-20 kts with ocnl hir gusts and
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...No change to the previous marine discussion. Recent
data from the surrounding buoys of the ATL waters suggest arrival of
a small Northerly Swell 2-3 feet around 12 secs with winds gradually
increasing 15 to 20 knots resulting in choppy conditions in some areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM AST Sun Jun 19 2022/

SYNOPSIS...Hazy skies will prevail today across the region. A
wind surge will bring better moisture content late today through
Monday. A tropical wave is forecast to pass well south of the area
on Tuesday, and drier air conditions will return by midweek.

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Saharan dust across the local area is causing hazy skies and will
continue through today, improving for Monday and Tuesday. Surface
high pressure in the northeastern Atlantic will promote an easterly
wind flow across the local area for the next few days. Under this
pattern, mainly fair weather is expected today, although isolated to
scattered showers are possible with isolated thunderstorms,
especially this afternoons across portions of western and
northwestern PR. On Monday, with much less Saharan dust expected, a
patch of moisture moving in, and an upper trough approaching from
the NNW, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR in the morning hours,
then moving to western PR in the afternoon, while isolated to
scattered showers are expected elsewhere in the afternoon hours.
Thereafter, drier air is expected to move in, and decreasing the
chances of significant rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday.
Isolated showers, if any are forecast on Monday night into Tuesday
morning across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR. Then
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast for
western PR for Tuesday afternoon. Essentially Monday looks to be the
wettest day in the short term period, with the model guidance
showing decent coverage of shower activity across the local islands,
though at this time it looks like the south coastal areas of PR has
the lowest chance of rainfall.

High temperatures today are expected to be near normal at the San
Juan Airport (JSJ) with 89 degrees in the forecast, the normal value
actually being 89. Heat index is expected to be in the 96 to 102
range across the lower elevations of Puerto Rico this afternoon. For
the USVI, the daytime highs are also forecast to be around normal,
in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Early mid-week, expect stable conditions to prevail as the mid-level
ridge moves through the forecast area. On the other hand, the
surface high-pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to
continue promoting easterly winds through at least mid-week. Later
in the workweek, the winds are expected to shift more east-
southeasterly as this surface feature lingers across the area. As
mentioned in previous discussions, this pattern will bring patches
of moisture to most of the local islands, which will help locally
induce convection along the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico
each afternoon. The moisture content embedded in the trade winds
will promote the typical weather pattern of overnight and early
morning passing showers across the windward sections of the
islands.

By the end of the workweek, expect a slightly unstable weather
pattern. This transition is due to an amplifying mid to upper-
level trough across the Caribbean. Latest-model run shows that
conditions will remain unstable during the weekend as there is no
cap at the lower levels to avoid moisture pulling into all levels
of the atmosphere.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
HZ due to Saharan dust will prevail, but VIS expected to remain at
P6SM. VCSH expected and possible VCTS after 19/17Z at TJBQ. Winds
will be out of the E at 10 to 15 knots with gusts and sea breeze
variations.

MARINE...A building high over the central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh trades through early next week. This
will cause choppy seas up to 6 feet across portions of the
regional waters. There is high risk of rip currents through late
Monday night across northern beaches of Puerto Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  20  30  50  20
STT  89  78  87  77 /  20  50  60  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM AST this evening through late
     Monday night for Culebra-Northeast-San Juan and Vicinity-
     Southeast.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for North
     Central-Northwest.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....RC
PUBLIC DESK...CVB

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
537 AM AST domingo 19 de junio de 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-201000-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y
lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe-
537 AM AST domingo 19 de junio de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Tronadas aisladas pudieran desarrollarse sobre el
oeste de Puerto Rico esta tarde, con periodos de lluvia fuerte y
vientos en rafaga.

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de hasta 20 mph (17 nudos)
se esperan a traves de las aguas locales.

.Oleaje...Oleaje picado de hasta 5 pies es anticipado a traves de
las agual locales.

.Corrientes marinas...Hay un riesgo alto de corrientes
marinas para las playas del norte central y noroeste de Puerto Rico
hoy, pero las playas de San Juan y Vecindad y del noreoste de Puerto
Rico y Culebra tambien tendran alto riesgo comenzando esta noche.
Hay un riesgo moderado a traves de la mayoria de las playas
restantes.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...lunes a sabado

El riesgo de corrientes marinas estara moderado o alto por los
proximos dias. El indice de calor estara sobre los 102 grados para
mediados de semana en algunos sectores de las elevaciones bajas.
Existe un riesgo de inundaciones urbanas el lines debido a tronadas.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, le
agradeceriamos reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos fuertes,
inundaciones, trombas marinas y corrientes marinas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-201000-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del
Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
537 AM AST domingo 19 de junio de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de hasta 20 mph (17 nudos)
se esperan a traves de las aguas locales.

.Oleaje...Oleaje picado de hasta 5 pies es anticipado a traves de
las agual locales.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para todas las playas de las Islas Virgenes.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...lunes a sabado

Un riesgo moderado a alto de corrientes marinas continuara por los
proximos dias. Hay una probabilidad de tronadas sobre las islas el
lunes.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, le
agradeceriamos reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos fuertes,
inundaciones, trombas marinas y corrientes marinas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.