A line of showers and thunderstorms developed well ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon of November 27, 2022. One cell along this line became particularly intense as it approached the Laurel Highlands.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms developed well ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon of November 27, 2022. One cell along this line became particularly intense as it approached the Laurel Highlands. Although the storm weakened as it moved into the Laurels, it retained enough strength to generate sporadic wind damage in the Johnstown area in southwestern Cambria County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 1:30 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 130 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong southern stream shortwave approaching from the Ohio Valley will track across northern Pennsylvania this evening. Low pressure will track west of Pennsylvania the middle of next week, dragging a trailing cold front through the state late Wednesday. Upper level ridging is then likely by late next week, with a dying cold front potentially affecting the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A potent southern stream shortwave is progged to lift up the Ohio River Valley and across northern PA this evening. A 60kt low level jet and slug of GOMEX moisture preceding this feature will produce periods of rain as it overruns a relatively cool/stable air mass near ground level. Strong large scale forcing ahead of the upper low, as inferred by model 300-500mb qvec convergence fields, combined with a bit of elevated instability, could result in a few heavier showers with a rumble of thunder in spots this afternoon. Latest satellite trends showed breaks in the clouds within a dry slot across WV and western PA, helping to destabilize the lower atmosphere in that region. A few lines of shallow convection have developed upstream of this pocket of clearing - one of which has produced wind gusts in excess of 40 kts in southern OH. Some of this low level instability may work its way into southwestern portions of our CWA later this afternoon, so we will be monitoring for the potential for gusty showers. The 00Z HREF and GEFS plumes indicate most likely rainfall by evening of 0.3 to 0.6 inches, with the back edge of steadiest rain exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area around 21Z. High temps today will range from the cool lower 40s in the more stable valleys of north central PA, to the mid 50s across the higher terrain of Somerset County. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong westerly flow and model sfc-700 RH values >95pct supports lingering, light orographic rain showers tonight over the Alleghenies. Expect rising temperatures during the evening, as the surface low passes north of the state and low level cool air is scoured out ahead of trailing cold front. Cold advection kicks in late tonight, as the trailing cold front pushes through. Tonight could turn quite windy, as the potent sfc low passes to our north. A tight pressure gradient and subsidence forced by differential anticyclonic vorticity advection favor gusty winds over the Laurels this evening. Bukfit soundings indicate west to northwest wind gusts of around 45 mph are possible. Lingering low level cool air east of the Alleghenies will make strong winds less likely there. Although winds will likely remain just shy of Wind Advisory criteria over the Laurels, we did issue a Special Weather Statement for gusty winds in collaboration with our neighboring WFO PBZ. Gusty winds may blow around loosely secured items such as outdoor holiday decorations. Model soundings indicate orographic rain showers could mix with snow over the highest elevations of northern Pa early Monday. However, surface temps should be too warm for any accumulation. Falling inversion heights should cause any orographic showers over the Alleghenies to taper off Monday afternoon. However, model RH profiles support a good deal lingering stratocu across the entire forecast area. Mixed soundings to 900mb, where progged temps are around 0C, support highs ranging from around 40F over the highest elevations of the Alleghenies, to the low 50s in the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure ridge and associated dry air mass should ensure fair and seasonable weather Monday night and Tuesday. However, warm advection aloft preceding a weak upper level shortwave over the Grt Lks could spread a layer of cirrus into the region Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clouds will continue to increase Tuesday night ahead of an approaching frontal system, with rain overspreading the area from west to east. Periods of rain will continue through the day on Wednesday, and model consensus suggests about 0.50" of rainfall can be expected with this system. A blustery west wind will develop behind the departing front and we will continue to monitor for potential wind advisory criteria across at least the Laurel Highlands and southern Alleghenies Wed night into Thurs. The post-frontal airmass will be noticeably colder Wed night into Thurs, and could support some lake effect snow showers across the NW snow belt. However, the chill will be short-lived and temperatures should rebound by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions will bounce between flight categories today as a storm system crosses the area with -RA, BR, and LLWS. Generally MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail today. The storm system moves away on Monday with conditions improving...especially from late morning on. Some BR and -DZ will linger over the higher elevations early. Outlook... Tue...Generally VFR w/ no sig wx. Tues night-Wed...Rain showers and reductions developing, along with gusty winds. Wed night-Thu...Lingering rain/snow showers NW. Otherwise, becoming VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert LONG TERM...Evanego/Colbert AVIATION...Tyburski
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 450 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 PAZ024-025-033-034-281000- Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford- 450 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-281000- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 450 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
259 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022
PAZ024-033-272045-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
259 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 PM EST...
At 259 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Latrobe to 12 miles west of Somerset. Movement
was northeast at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Somerset, Westmont, Windber, Ebensburg, Belmont,
Nanty-Glo, Portage, Geistown, Southmont, Berlin, Cresson, Gallitzin,
Friedens, Vinco, Loretto, Boswell, Dale, East Conemaugh and
Salix-Beauty Line Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3978 7939 3979 7935 3986 7942 3990 7940
4009 7926 4012 7917 4036 7900 4056 7888
4056 7847 4051 7854 4037 7856 4031 7864
4026 7864 4006 7876 3989 7876 3977 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 245DEG 50KT 4036 7943 4000 7932 3980 7942
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ColbertThe State College radar (KCCX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:37 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced sporadic wind damage in the form of trees and wires down across the Greater Johnstown area. Localities impacted included Westmont, the city of Johnstown, Stonycreek Township, and East Taylor Township.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1058145.