A strong, occluding surface low crossed the Great Lakes on November 27th. After morning rain, instability in the form of around 500 J/kg of mean-layer CAPE was able to develop in the Middle Ohio Valley and advect northeast into northern West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
A strong, occluding surface low crossed the Great Lakes on November 27th. After morning rain, instability in the form of around 500 J/kg of mean-layer CAPE was able to develop in the Middle Ohio Valley and advect northeast into northern West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania. A strongly sheared environment was also present. Strong low-level flow helped to support a damaging-wind threat, while cold temperatures aloft and favorable deep-layer shear also supported large hail, which is unusual for late November. Most of the activity was east of Ohio, with only a couple incidents of wind damage noted.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 12:35 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1235 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A mature low pressure will bring showers and isolated storms today. Wind impacts are possible for higher elevations and within convection. A passing front Wednesday into Wednesday night will return precipitation chances with the potential for wind, wintry, and flash freeze impacts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An occluded surface low is progressing through the Great Lakes region. A low-level jet at approximately 850-900mb resulting form a heightened pressure gradient on the southwest side of the low has prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory for the highest elevations of western Tucker County. This afternoon, the higher elevations will maintain the threat for elevated wind gusts. This will result in the continuation of the SPS and Wind Advisory in the ridges through the overnight. In the lowlands, stratiform precipitation will depart. Aloft, a passing trough and some cold advection with backing winds will destabilize the mid-levels. Current GOES-16 imagery also shows the clearing of clouds within a dry slot wrapping around the occluded low. This will act to allow the inversion to more readily erode and reduce low-level stability. All in all, these factors will come together to allow for a local maxima of up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE to pass over northern West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania. When combined with up to 50kts of LLWS, storms may develop capable of mixing down wind gusts from aloft. Discrete cells may pop up in the warm sector of the low, but the highest chance of storms and wind will lie along a passing linear occluded frontal boundary. This lifting mechanism will allow for showers and storms, mixing down the low level jet. Current observations indicate gusts of up to 54 mph within the line, and the surface will continue to destabilize within the dry slot. This this alludes to the marginal potential for severe wind gusts today. Any convective- embedded wind threats above thresholds will be covered with short fuse convective products on a case- by-case basis. Beyond 22Z, convection will be unlikely as mid level warm advection is reintroduced ahead of the passage of a cold front overnight. As a result, the convective wind threat will be over. On the other hand, the maintenance of the low level jet ahead of the cold front may maintain the wind threat for higher elevations, until about 07Z. Post-frontal, northwest, lake enhanced flow will allow for the slight chance of a shower or two overnight. Cold advection will arrive behind the front, but stratocumulus clouds will limit the radiational component of cooling, keeping temperatures above freezing and any precipitation liquid. Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday morning, northwest flow and stratocumulus will continue, along with the outside chance of seeing an isolated shower. As the day progresses, winds will back to the west, reducing the upstream moisture fetch off the Great Lakes. This will result in a reduction of low-level moisture. In turn, shower chances and cloud coverage will decrease by late day. Daytime highs will be near normal. The surface high will pass overnight, calming winds and eroding what is left of low-level clouds. Some scattered high clouds may encroach by the late overnight with the approach of the next disturbance. High and mid clouds will progressively thicken on Tuesday. As the high axis pushes east, southeasterly flow will return. As the pressure gradient increases with an approaching trough, so will the winds. A low level jet will reestablish Tuesday night above the inversion in response. Warm advection will allow daytime highs and nighttime lows will remain above average. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Wednesday, a Colorado low will advance east, merge with upper-level low tracking through Canada, rapidly intensity as the system goes through cyclogenesis given left exit region of strong upper-level jet across the Great Plains. Impacts associated with this next system across the Ohio River Valley could include: convective rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, high wind gusts, perhaps a period of wintry mix/snow as a cold front advances through the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, and a flash freeze early Thursday morning. Probabilities under the 24hr NBM4.1 are trending higher for QPF> 0.5 inches across the region (75-80%); QPF> 1.0 inches probabilities range between 30-45%. The spotty spatial disturbance to higher QPF is likely due to a few ensemble runs of isolated thunderstorms. In the wake of the cold front early Thursday morning, any ongoing rain showers will likely turn to snow showers given 850mb temps dropping from 4 degrees Celsius to -11 degrees Celsius within 6hrs. Snow showers amounts will likely be light across a majority of the region, perhaps a few tenths of an inch in isolated areas (probability of 0.1 inches ranges between 20-30% currently). Near I-80, up to 1 inch of snow may be observed due to lake enhanced to lake effect showers. With temperatures drastically dropping into the low to mid-20s across the region early Thursday morning, there could be the potential of a flash freeze on the roads with any runoff that hasn't evaporated from high wind gusts. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will trend colder than average as the region gradually recovers from the impacts of the upper- level trough. With the combination of high wind gusts, early Thursday morning wind chill values will likely fall into the teens across the region; single digits in the higher elevation. Ridging across the Southeast will result in the return of warm air for the weekend; temperatures will likely climb near the climatological average. Precip chances may return Saturday into Sunday, however a number of ensemble members show dry conditions under high pressure. Therefore, confidence is still low during this time period for notable impacts. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cig improvement will continue with a nwd advancing dry slot within the warm sector of low pressure. However; recent radar mosaic suggests this will be short-lived as a line of convective showers ejects newd along a frontal boundary this aftn. Steepening llvl lapse rates with that FROPA will promote the mix down of strong wind gusts as it quickly progresses ewd. Recent upstream sfc obs suggests wind gusts in the low to mid 30 knot range is evident along, and immediately behind this feature. Continued boundary layer mixing in showers should support periodic, gusty wind through tonight, with sfc wind eventually shifting nwly as low pressure departs the area. The return of widespread MVFR and eventual IFR cigs will accompany crossing low pressure through early Monday morning. .OUTLOOK.... Remnant showers and cig restrictions are likely through Monday evening via cold advection in nwly flow and upper troughing. VFR returns Tuesday before the onset of restrictions once again with a Wednesday cold front. This should support continued restriction potential in rain and snow showers through Thurs. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for WVZ514. && SYNOPSIS...Milcarek NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...Milcarek LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 109 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513-281815- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland- Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette- Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker- 109 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Elevated wind gusts are possible today via a low level jet and convective mixing. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. WVZ514-281815- Eastern Tucker- 109 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Milcarek
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1238 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022
OHZ040-041-049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ020-029-WVZ001>004-012-271800-
Monroe OH-Jefferson OH-Belmont OH-Guernsey OH-Noble OH-Harrison OH-
Columbiana OH-Carroll OH-Washington PA-Beaver PA-Brooke WV-
Marshall WV-Ohio WV-Hancock WV-Wetzel WV-
1238 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022
...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH 100 PM EST...
At 1235 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking showers with strong winds
along a line extending from near Cadiz to 7 miles north of Beverly.
Movement was northeast at 80 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wheeling, Weirton, Steubenville, East Liverpool, Moundsville, Beaver
Falls, Martins Ferry, Monaca, New Martinsville, St. Clairsville,
Bellaire, and Barnesville.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 191 and 225.
Interstate 70 in West Virginia between mile markers 0 and 6.
Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 28.
Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 32 and 43.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4077 8090 4076 8024 3958 8089 3961 8095
3954 8104 3957 8105 3958 8126 3961 8127
3961 8128 3959 8129 3959 8136 3960 8139
3964 8145 3965 8145 3964 8147 3958 8148
3959 8159 3966 8159 3967 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 225DEG 68KT 4023 8095 3965 8160
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
07Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1254 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 PAZ074-076-WVZ510>513-272000- Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker- Including the cities of Ligonier, Donegal, Champion, Ohiopyle, Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, and Saint George 1254 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 A low pressure system tracking northeast over the Great Lakes will lead to gusty winds. Elevated gusts embedded in a low level jet will primarily impact higher elevations until a cold frontal passage overnight. West to southwest winds may gust up to 35-45mph at times. Milcarek
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1258 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 PAZ074-076-WVZ510>513-280700- Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker- Including the cities of Ligonier, Donegal, Champion, Ohiopyle, Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, and Saint George 1258 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022 A low pressure system tracking northeast over the Great Lakes will lead to gusty winds. Elevated gusts embedded in a low level jet will primarily impact higher elevations until a cold frontal passage overnight. West to southwest winds may gust up to 35-45mph at times.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
100 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022
OHZ040-041-049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ014-020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004-
012-271845-
Monroe OH-Jefferson OH-Belmont OH-Guernsey OH-Noble OH-Harrison OH-
Columbiana OH-Carroll OH-Greene PA-Allegheny PA-Washington PA-
Butler PA-Beaver PA-Brooke WV-Marshall WV-Ohio WV-Hancock WV-
Wetzel WV-
100 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2022
...STRONG WIND WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH 145 PM EST...
At 1258 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking showers with strong wind
gusts along a line extending from near Wintersville to near
Caldwell. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wheeling, Cranberry, Moon Township, Weirton, Steubenville, East
Liverpool, Aliquippa, Moundsville, Beaver Falls, Martins Ferry,
Monaca, and New Martinsville.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 198 and 225.
Interstate 70 in West Virginia between mile markers 0 and 14.
Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 7.
Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 19 and 26.
Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 22.
Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 84 and 86.
Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 31 and 55.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4074 8079 4079 8009 3947 8069 3948 8072
3955 8078 3956 8082 3960 8085 3958 8089
3961 8095 3954 8104 3957 8105 3958 8126
3961 8127 3959 8129 3960 8139 3965 8145
3964 8147 3958 8147 3959 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 209DEG 41KT 4043 8075 3971 8141
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
07The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:12 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was downed across State Route 260, near the Noble County line.
A tree was blown down across a road in Laings, Ohio.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1063699, 1063700.