NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 10:17 PM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 10:17 PM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1017 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move east across the area tonight into
Thursday before moving east off the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Friday. High pressure will briefly build over the area late
Friday through Saturday, before the next cold front moves across
the area Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front continues to make eastward progression, with
changeover to snow occurring very quickly after frontal passage.
Thus far, there have been only a few reports of freezing rain,
and none of sleet, with generally a quick rain-to-snow
changeover so far. The change from rain to snow has been
quicker by about an hour in some spot, which could signal a
trend for downstream locations (e.g. central to east-central
Ohio areas). This probably won't affect snow totals very much.
Minor adjustments were made to the snowfall forecast this
evening to account for latest 00Z model guidance. Slight
increase to QPF and snow ratio resulted in an increase of 0.5-1"
of snow everywhere except for northwest Ohio, where QPF was
actually decreased slightly. Messaging and impacts of the storm
largely remains unchanged as we still expect a widespread 8-12"
snow event through Thursday night.
Original Discussion...
A somewhat challenging forecast for the next 24-36 hours as a
winter storm impacts the local area. Deep southwesterly flow and
isentropic lift ahead of a cold front draped across Northwest
Ohio (and well to the south of the local area) is leading to
widespread rain across the area. The front has been slow to
move into the CWA, with KTOL finally reporting snow several
hours later than anticipated. Expect rain to gradually mix with
and transition to snow as the front meanders east/southeast
across the area this evening - may take quite some time to
transition, as temps across most of the area are in the upper
30s to lower 40s with dew points above freezing. Warm temps
combined with dew points above freezing are allowing the
snowpack to ripen and melt, which is both good and bad - there
will be less snow on the ground to start off the event, but may
need to start worrying about hydro with snowmelt and more liquid
precip than anticipated.
Really need to start getting the cold air from the upstream
Arctic high for temps to cool enough for accumulating snowfall.
By midnight tonight, precip type approximately northeast of a
line from Youngstown to Marion should be all snow. By 3 AM
Thursday, expect at least a wintry mix at all locations.
Guidance is consistently hinting at a lull in precip intensity
late tonight into Thursday morning, which may provide several
hours of light snow and a small chance of dry weather. However,
better jet support arrives by Thursday afternoon, which should
produce a surge of moderate to heavy snow with at least one inch
per hour snowfall rates across the area into Thursday evening.
This will be the timeframe of the highest impacts for the
majority of the area. Expect precip to taper off from northwest
to southeast overnight Thursday.
The rain/snow line will set up very close to the southeastern
border, which will lead to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain across the southeastern border. Expect several
inches of snow/sleet accumulation and a tenth or two of freezing
rain. Due to the potential for significant impacts due to mixed
precip, the Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning.
In general, not too many drastic changes were needed with the
snowfall forecast in this update outside of bumping up snow
amounts slightly in the southeast to account for 12Z guidance
trending slightly farther south and decreasing snowfall totals a
bit to account for the slow changeover. Still expect areas
within the warning to achieve Winter Storm Warning criteria
snowfall totals. At this point, the main challenges are:
1. Delayed transition from rain to snow hindering snowfall
totals at the onset.
2. The lull in precip hindering snowfall totals.
3. Any north/south variation in the rain/snow/mixed precip line
may significantly impact snowfall totals in southeastern
counties (primarily from Knox County to Mahoning County). A
northward shift will lead to less snowfall totals, but more
impactful sleet/freezing rain accumulations. A southward shift
will lead to higher snowfall totals in southeastern counties.
Regardless of accumulations, impacts will be significant in this
area, but will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as
needed.
Gusty northeasterly winds to 30+ mph will produce blowing snow
on Thursday. This will lead to significantly reduced
visibilities and drifting snow (reminder that blizzard criteria
is sustained winds or frequent gusts of at least 35 mph,
blowing or falling snow, and visibilities of a quarter of a mile
or less for at least three hours). Also expect wind chill values
in the low teens to single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low and its associated cold front will shift
northeastward across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday. As
the system drifts away from the region, partial clearing, light
winds, and a fresh snow cover will allow for efficient radiational
cooling on Friday evening. Lows are expected to drop into the single
digits, with a few spots in the western portion of the CWA dropping
below zero overnight Friday. Wind chills on Friday evening should
drop between 10-15 degrees below zero overnight, thus a Wind Chill
Advisory may be needed.
A shortwave trough will drift across the region Friday night
into early Saturday morning. The shortwave will usher in low level
moisture and CAA aloft. Winds across the lower levels (surface to
700mb) will be coming from the northwest. CAA aloft will lower
temperatures at 850mb to approximately 17 degrees C below zero.
These variables will aid in lake effect snow formation Friday
evening. Model soundings show signals for lake effect bands across
both the primary and secondary snowbelts, however accumulations will
be light as a mainly ice-covered Lake Erie limits lake-induced CAPE
and snowfall intensity. Any LES should subside by the afternoon
hours on Saturday as high pressure settles over the region. High
pressure on Saturday afternoon and evening will lead to light winds
across the area and below normal temperatures. Overnight, wind
chills will not be as low as Friday night and will be in the single
digits for most.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drift off to the north and east by Sunday before
a weak cold front moves through the region Sunday night into Monday.
Light snow showers may be possible along and ahead of the front.
Surface ridging takes control by Monday evening into Tuesday
bringing fair weather through Wednesday morning. Another surface
trough begins to move into the region on Wednesday. Temperatures in
the long term period will remain below normal for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Large area of precipitation encompasses the region currently
with a cold front NNE-SSW cold front situations across northwest
Ohio currently. Conditions west/behind the cold front consist
of snow with visibilities generally between 3/4 SM to 2 SM, IFR
ceilings, and NNE winds of 10-15 knots and gusts as high as 25
knots. Conditions east/ahead of this front are generally rain
with MVFR visibilities of 3-5 SM, MVFR ceilings and S winds of
8-12 knots. This front will make gradual progress eastward,
causing precipitation to briefly result in a mixed precipitation
of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow for 1-2 hours (or less)
before switching over to all snow. It will also bring lower
ceilings/visibilities and NNE winds of 10-15 knots with gusts as
high as 25 knots. The front lingers near KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG,
late tonight into tomorrow morning, which could result in a
longer duration of mixed precipitation. As snow accumulates,
strong northerly winds could result in blowing snow. There may
be a brief lull in snow intensity early Thursday morning before
intensity picks up again late Thursday morning through Thursday
evening. Confidence wasn't high enough yet to include in TAF but
visibility could drop down to 1/4SM on Thursday, especially
between 18Z Thursday and 00Z Friday. Snow begins to dissipate
across western TAF sites, such as KTOL and KFDY, near 00Z
Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions with snow will persist through
Friday morning. Non-VFR is possible with light, scattered lake
effect snow Friday into Friday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Current observations show Lake Erie to be mostly ice covered, but
some openings are present. Waves across the open water will be 3
feet or less through the beginning of next week, with isolated
higher amounts in areas of open water.
The cold front will drift across the region and exit the area by
late this evening. Winds behind the front will be northerly ranging
between 15 and 20 knots through Friday evening. As high pressure
moves into the region late Friday into Saturday morning, winds will
shift and become westerly between 5 and 10 knots. High pressure will
begin to leave the area by Sunday morning as winds shift to a
southerly direction but wind speeds will remain unchanged. By Sunday
afternoon, winds become southwesterly and will range between 10-15
knots over the water.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for OHZ003-006>012-
017>019-027-028.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for OHZ013-014-
020>023-029>031-036-037-089.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
OHZ032-033-038-047.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Iverson