A strong cold front moved into the Central New York during the early morning hours on the 22nd. Thunderstorms developed along and ahead of the cold front.
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The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
A strong cold front moved into the Central New York during the early morning hours on the 22nd. Thunderstorms developed along and ahead of the cold front. There was enough instability to support a severe thunderstorm that had strong wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 21, 8:30 PM EST, 4 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 930 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front with showers and thunderstorms, will push through the region late tonight into Thursday morning. Much cooler air moves in Thursday, and especially on Friday. Lake effect rain showers will accompany this cooler air on Thursday, lasting into Friday morning, mainly across Central New York. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 930 pm update... Lowered pops this evening into the early morning hours. Believe some showers and thunderstorms will form and move through with the cold front but convective initiation the rest of the evening looks unlikely. Some convection is forming again in Ohio and southeast Ontario but this is several hours away from our area. 630 pm update... Minor update. Increased cloud amounts with the mid and high clouds across most of the area now. Delayed the timing of the showers and thunderstorms a little. The few showers that formed earlier in CNY have died. Most of the convection to our west also died. Better shear will move east tonight with and ahead of the front. Elevated instability will continue even as surface temperatures slowly fall. Models still not agreeing on what will happen with the shower/thunderstorm coverage tonight. Kept most of the old forecast of likely pops and cloudy skies for the overnight moving southeast through the area. 240 PM Update... Showers and thunderstorms still possible this evening through the overnight hours, however the severe thunderstorm threat looks low at this time. A strong cold front, current located across Central Michigan will push into western NY later tonight. A prefrontal trough has pushed across southern Ontario Canada today and has kicked off an area of storms well out ahead of the cold front. However, this line of thunderstorms is dissipating and will likely have minimal impact on our region, with maybe a few lingering showers with this across western NY. CAMs have been little to no help with forecasting how convection will evolve this evening and tonight, as they struggle to get handle with the ongoing convection that occurred this morning and into early this afternoon. At this time, it appears that the greatest coverage in showers and thunderstorms are going to occur with the arrival of the cold front late tonight and through early Thursday morning, so have highest PoPs and T-storm chances during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings show elevated instability of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE right through Thursday AM. Being that the bulk of convective activity occurs overnight, the severe threat from these storms will be low due to a stable boundary layer. However, some heavy rainfall with will be possible and there remains low potential for localized flash flooding. A rather significant airmass change occurs tomorrow behind the cold front, with 850mb temperatures plummeting to around 0-2C by the afternoon. Due to the large difference in Great Lake water temperatures and 850mb temperatures, combined with a northwest fetch developing, lake effect rain showers are expected, especially during the afternoon. As is typical, the greatest chance for lake effect rain showers will be across Central NY, with much lower chances towards Northeast PA/Catskills. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for this time of the year, with highs only expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight into Friday morning, temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s most areas, but low to mid 30s is expected across Northern Oneida County and into the northern Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 350 PM Update... Lake effect showers will continue into Friday, but will be diminishing by afternoon, as an upper trough shifts east of the area, and upper level convergence develops high aloft. Somewhat drier air at the low levels will also be advecting into the area, as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Winds will begin to diminish Friday night into early Saturday, and temperatures will drop into the mid-30s to lower-40s over much of the area, with the coolest temperatures tucked into protected valleys around the Catskills. In these areas, frost will be possible by dawn Saturday. Temperatures will be stuck in the 50s for highs on Friday, but will warm up into the 60s on Saturday afternoon, despite the chilly, if not frosty, start. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A broad trough will carve itself out over the northeast early next week, with showers increasing Sunday as an initial shortwave trough rolls through the area. An additional shortwave will help amplify the longwave trough later on Monday, bringing an additional chance for showers over the wider region. Northwest winds and cyclonic flow aloft will continue into Tuesday, with cooling temperatures and possible lake effect (or lake-enhanced) rain showers persisting. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front will push through the region overnight tonight with rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially after midnight. Guidance is showing the front entering the area starting around 6z and pushing through the region by 13z. Confidence in the timing of thunderstorm development continues to be low given how poorly the guidance has handled the situation today. Tempo'd in a couple hour period of thunderstorms ahead of the frontal passage at each terminal with rain showers behind the front for a few hours. MVFR conditions are expected across all terminals, starting in the north and working south. ELM will have the chance to do down to IFR and below alternate mins after the frontal passage as fog settles into the valley. MVFR ceiling should remain across the area through late morning/early afternoon before a strong NNW wind picks up with gusts up to 25kts. Lake effect showers will begin early afternoon and are expected to last through the TAF period. All terminals should see showers but confidence in them reaching AVP is low. SYR and RME will see ceilings drop to MVFR later in the afternoon as the lake effect clouds really get going. Outlook... Thursday night... Morning fog possible at KELM Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with morning valley fog likely Friday night and Saturday night, impacting ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...MPK/TAC NEAR TERM...MPK/TAC SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...JTC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 252 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-221900- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 252 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A strong cold front is expected to move through the region tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and potential for isolated flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022
NYZ022-220630-
Steuben NY-
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Steuben
County through 230 AM EDT...
At 200 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haskinville, or 7 miles northeast of Hornell, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hornell, Bath, Urbana, Howard, Pulteney, Wheeler, Avoca, Cohocton,
Savona and Hammondsport.
This includes the following highway exits...
Interstate 86/Route 17 between 35 and 40.
Interstate 390 near 1.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4248 7765 4255 7715 4250 7715 4250 7712
4223 7710 4230 7765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 271DEG 34KT 4239 7754
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BJGThe Binghamton radar (KBGM), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:09 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong thunderstorm winds knocked down power lines, resulting in a power outage on Seneca Blvd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1055993.