A line of heavier showers moved across southwest Colorado early in the morning in response to a midlevel circulation overhead. Some localized street flooding occurred across portions of La Plata County as a result.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A line of heavier showers moved across southwest Colorado early in the morning in response to a midlevel circulation overhead. Some localized street flooding occurred across portions of La Plata County as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 4:39 AM MST, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Models have initialized very well this morning, picking up on the line of heavier showers that are currently moving across the forecast area. IR satellite clearly shows rotation around the low pressure which is now located over western Idaho. As the day progresses, the low will continue to move to the northeast until it reaches the Canadian border adjacent to Montana and then starts moving eastward. This trajectory will continue to flatten the high pressure over Texas and cause the moisture tap into our area to finally end. In fact, guidance is suggesting a rapid change in moisture content as PWATs are progged to drop to around .8 inches north of the San Juans by this morning. This seems excessively quick so wouldn't be surprised if the morning sounding comes in a bit wetter. Regardless, drier air will be moving in which is expected to eventually put an end to the clouds, showers, and occasional storms. Having said that, some issues do pop up with this afternoon's forecast with regards to convection. Both the NAM12 and GFS bring heavier precip to an end by about noon, and that's it, a few showers hanging on over the southern San Juans and northern mountains while the remainder of the CWA stays dry. CAM guidance does show some convection firing as the heaviest precip moves off to the east. This seems more plausible but even that convection is rather isolated and not all that impressive. With clearing skies, plenty of heating will allow the atmosphere to become unstable and this clearing also usually creates a gradient where most convection usually forms. Sometimes models pick up on this, sometimes not. Interestingly, the NBM is also showing a noticeable downtick in PoPs from midafternoon onwards though some does remain over the higher terrain. After all of the above, the NBM solution will remain in the forecast with the caveat that it might be a bit underdone. Of note, a jet streak aloft will keep steering flow in the 20 to 30 mph range so any convection that forms will be moving at a pretty good clip. Some stronger outflow winds will certainly be possible this afternoon. Whether they reach severe criteria (>= 58 mph) remains to be seen but upstream yesterday a few of the stronger cells did reach criteria around the Salt Lake City area...certainly something to look for this afternoon. As far as the Flash Flood Watch is concerned, debated dropping it this morning but with ongoing rain and with the Grizzly Creek burn scar still in play, played it safe and kept the watches going. Would anticipate the day shift will be able to pull them down early though depending on how this afternoon plays out. Zonal flow then sets up across the CWA Friday with mostly sunny skies expected across the region. Temperatures will return to more normal values before a warmup kicks in for the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 A dry west to northwest flow will remain over the region Friday night heading into the weekend with a ridge of high pressure building across the west. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees above normal by late weekend into early next week as a result. PWAT anomalies crash into the 30 to 80 percent of normal range, or 0.2 to 0.5 inches, which is very dry. The GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a couple weak shortwave troughs crashing into or undercutting the ridge, allowing for some moisture return and an increase in afternoon showers and storms sometime in the early to middle of next week timeframe. As a result, PWAT rises north of 0.75 inches down south. The timing and placement of these shortwaves though remains inconsistent between models and from run to run, so not much confidence can be placed in either solution. At the very least, isolated to scattered storms are possible during the afternoon favoring the central and southern mountains as we head towards middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 535 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Scattered showers, light to moderate, can be found across the area this morning. A few pockets of heavier precip with ILS breakpoints reached mainly due to lower ceilings in showers can't be ruled out. Thunderstorm chances increase after 16Z as some clearing and sun work in from the west and continue before drier air sweeps in later this afternoon into the early evening, bringing gusty winds and clearing conditions by sunset. Some storms Thursday afternoon could be strong with brief heavy rain and outflow winds to 40 kts possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Flash flooding concerns will come to an end later today as the stream of moisture from the south gets cutoff. Until that occurs, a chance does remain for a few storms to produce heavier rainfall this morning and early afternoon. Slot canyons and burn scars, especially the Grizzly Creek, are still in play so the Flash Flood Watches will remain in effect. Anticipate they will be able to be dropped later this afternoon or evening as the heavier precipitation ends. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flood Watch through this evening for COZ003-006>014-017>023. UT...Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ022-025-027>029. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT HYDROLOGY...TGR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 315 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-230915- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 315 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning into the early afternoon hours. Some of the storms this afternoon may produce gusty outflow winds. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect as some heavy rain is possible from the stronger cells. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Dry conditions return Friday and continue into the start of the work week. Temperatures will also start to warmup. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
807 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022
COZ001-UTZ023-024-221430-
Lower Yampa River Basin CO-Eastern Uinta Basin UT-
Eastern Uinta Mountains UT-
807 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Moffat,
northeastern Uintah and southeastern Daggett Counties through 830 AM
MDT...
At 807 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles northeast of Vernal to 35 miles east
of Whiterocks to 15 miles northwest of Dinosaur. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Moffat, northeastern Uintah and southeastern Daggett Counties,
including the following locations... Greystone.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 40 in Utah between mile markers 164 and 165.
U.S. Highway 191 in Utah between mile markers 368 and 371.
Colorado 318 between mile markers 2 and 26.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4091 10893 4072 10867 4044 10858 4030 10925
4051 10932 4065 10951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 246DEG 40KT 4062 10939 4053 10927 4039 10922
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
NLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
830 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0731 AM TSTM WND GST 1 NE FORT DUCHESNE 40.28N 109.86W
09/22/2022 M48 MPH UINTAH UT MESONET
MESONET STATION UINU1 FORT DUCHESNE.
&&
NLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
832 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0751 AM TSTM WND GST 1 E VERNAL 40.45N 109.52W
09/22/2022 M45 MPH UINTAH UT ASOS
ASOS STATION KVEL VERNAL RGNL AIRPORT.
&&
NLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor street flooding occurred at the intersection of Main Ave and 32nd Street in Durango as a result of heavy rain from showers. A few rocks were in the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1051504.