Ice Storm and Winter Storm in New York, February 3 to 4, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall over eastern New York and
western New England with periods of rain turning to snow and a
wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain tonight.  A low pressure
system moving from the mid Atlantic States to off the New England
Coast will continue the snow and wintry mix through Friday.   A
moderate to heavy snowfall is possible north and west of the Capital
Region. Much colder weather moves into the forecast area Friday into
the weekend as an arctic high builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Winter Storm Warning for Herkimer, Hamilton, northern Fulton,
northern Warren and northern Washington Counties until to 1 pm
Friday...

Winter Storm Warning for southern Fulton, Montgomery, Schoharie,
western Schenectady and western Albany Counties from 1 pm today
to 5 pm Friday...

Winter Storm Warning for Southern Vermont, the Capital Region, Glens
Falls and northern Saratoga Region, and the northern Taconics
in eastern New York and northern Berkshire County in western
Massachusetts from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 pm Friday...

Winter Weather Advisory for western Greene and western Ulster
Counties from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 pm Friday...

As of 645 AM EST...A cold front is slowly moving across northern
and central NY that extends southwest through the OH Valley and
into the lower MS River Valley. Low pressure is developing near
the LA/TX. An arctic high at close to 1045 hPa is building
eastward from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Region.
A broad, positively tilted mid and upper level trough is moving
from the central CONUS towards the East Coast. Gulf moisture is
being transported northeastward towards the region along the
front this morning. PWAT anomalies are in the +2 to +3 STDEV
range based on the latest NAEFS. A lead disturbance along the
disturbance is bringing some rain to the region with some
mountain wet snow possible over the southern Adirondacks.
Temperatures are mild in the 30s to lower 40s across the
forecast area. NYS webcams indicate snow falling across multiple
sites with temps right around freezing.Expect a few inches of
wet snow this morning. Some shadowing off the northern Catskills
with southwest flow aloft is decreasing the rain over the
Capital Region right now. However, intermittent light rain
continues to expand south and east of the Adirondacks. Some
patchy fog was also added to the mid Hudson Valley.

The forecast becomes increasingly complicated this afternoon.
Cold air will begin to move into the region from the west to
northwest with the pcpn changing to snow first over the western
Mohawk Valley and the Adirondacks. Hence, we have the warning
going their first. Most of the forecast area remains on the
warm side of the boundary this morning into the early to mid
afternoon. However, the majority of the latest CAMS, GFS, EC,
and the NAM indicated the pcpn begins to change to a rain/snow
mix or all snow west of the Capital Region in the afternoon. We
leaned closer to the NAM/EC thermal profiles and used the 3-km
HRRR and HREFS for guidance this morning. The GFS continues to
be cold in the boundary layer late this pm and into tonight
eroding the warm nose aloft and changing the pcpn to
sleet/freezing rain to snow faster especially along and north of
the I-90 corridor.

The low-level baroclinic zone strengthens in the late afternoon
for a quick change over to snow, as the front moves eastward
across the Capital Region and northern New England. Strong
upward vertical motion generated by the low to mid level
frontogenesis should allow it to become heavy over the northern
zones towards 6 pm. We tended to use the heavy snow wording
based on the high probabilities of 1" an hour rates from the
HREFs over the northern zones at night.

We tried to start the headlines a few hours before a snow or icy
mix transition based on the EC/NAM thermal profiles used for a
Top Down Ptype method. Highs today will be in the upper 20s to
mid 30s over the southern Adirondacks, and 30s to lower 40s over
the rest of the forecast area. Total snow accums will be in the
2-5" range over the southern Adirondacks, and 1-3" over the
western Mohawk Valley.

Portions of the Winter Storm Watch were converted to a warning,
and locations south of the Capital Region, Schoharie County and
the northern Berkshires were converted to an advisory with the
mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and NW CT placed an
advisory too. More in the short term on the complex forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley, southern and
central Taconics, and Litchfield County, CT from 7 pm tonight
to 5 pm Friday...

Tonight...Lots of changeable weather with shallow cold air
oozing southward at the sfc and within the boundary layer north
and west of the Capital Region. In fact, we should see the
surface winds shift northerly and cold air moving into the
Capital District prior to midnight. Strong synoptic forcing will
occur near the right entrance region of a potent mid and upper
level jet streak over the northern zones with the HREFS
indicating high hourly snow rate probabilities of an inch an
hour. The moisture advection continues over the region along
and in the wake of the sfc cold front. The warm nose aloft
erodes faster on the GFS/EC while the HRRR/NAM/CMC are slower.
This equates to an extended period of freezing rain and then to
sleet from southern VT, the Capital Region, Schoharie Valley
southward. Sleet exhausts a lot of QPF. Snow to liquid ratios
will be 2-3:1 to one. The dicey part is where this mixed pcpn
zone sets up and migrates. On the north side of it, strong
upwards vertical motion should intersect the dendritic growth
zone for heavy snow. The Capital Region will be on the edge of
this gradient based on our latest forecast collaborated with WPC
and the neighboring WFOs.

We believe snow and sleet will get to warning levels across the
Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks, Lake George northern
Saratoga Region and southern VT. East of the Greens will be
similar to the Capital District, Schoharie Valley, northern
Taconics and Berkshires where we believe a combination of the
pcpn types with 3-6" of snow/sleet and 1 to 2 tenths of flat ice
may allow warning level to be reached. Sleet accumulations
could be a half an inch to 2 inches across the region. We have
the pcpn changing to snow over the Capital Region, northern
Berkshires and northern Taconics after midnight and before
sunrise.

Further south, ice is a concern. We went for Winter Weather
Advisories with one to three tenths of a flat ice with 1 to 3
inches of snow. We will need to monitor if an upgrade is needed
to a warning. The pcpn may hold as rain a bit longer before
temps fall below freezing or the sleet bomb arrives. The icing
zone is tricky, and precarious. The morning commute will be a
problem here and across the entire area.

Also, we will have to monitor for a flash freeze situation in
some spots with temps tumbling into the teens and 20s

Friday, a low pressure system moves northeast from the Mid
Atlantic Region to south of Long Island along the front. The
low-level convergence increases. We will have to monitor for any
mesoscale banding. Over running moisture continues. If the GFS
is right and we have more snow, it could be good night Irene and
heavier snow totals through the I-90 corridor south. The snow
will be wet and heavy and become drier over the northern most
zones. We should have snow continuing over most the region
though the morning with an icy mix persisting over the southeast
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

The forecast from the Capital Region south and east continues to
be low to moderate confidence due to the mixed pcpn. We kept the
headlines going into the afternoon in most locations as the snow
tapers to snow showers.The greatest snow totals are projected
over the western Mohawk Valley, northern reaches of the Lake
George, southern Adirondacks with 10-16 inches. The Saratoga
Region, central Mohawk Valley could have 6-12". The Capital
Region and Schoharie Valley/Helderbergs/northern Taconics will
have a sharp gradient with 3-8". Albany we have right around 4"
of snow and sleet. The 00Z GEFS Plume continues to show a mean
amount of 7-8", but we were not sure if enough sleet is
accounted for in it, and dont trust the GEFS/GFS thermal
profiles. The 21Z SREF Plume mean for Albany was around 5".

Highs on Friday will be close to the lows as temps will be
steady or slightly fall with the cold advection. Daytimes highs
will be in the teens and 20s.

Fri night...the upper level trough axis moves across the region
with scattered snow showers and a few flurries. A weak lake
effect connection is possible before the low to mid level flow
veers to the northwest. It will be cold with lows in the single
digits and lower teens with some below zero readings over the
southern Dacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall guidance is in agreement with a persist trough across much
of the CONUS reinforced by short waves with a ridge building from
the Pacific and ridging out over the west-central Atlantic. However
guidance is not in agreement with the timing and amplitude of the
northern stream short waves which approach and pass over our region;
fortunately there should be limited moisture associated with them so
looking at a period of fair weather.

Saturday will be another day with a cold start and below normal
temperatures with highs around 15 degrees below normal. Saturday
night will be colder than Friday night as surface high pressure
passes over the region with ideal radiational conditions and fresh
snow across the area. Looking at lows from around 5 degrees above
zero in the mid-Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut to about
10 degrees below zero across portions of the western Adirondacks.
Temperatures are then expected to moderate to seasonal readings for
early February early next week with highs mainly in the mid 20s to
upper 30s and lows in the single digits and teens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Complex forecast as cold front moves southeastward across the area
today with colder air moves in behind it through tonight resulting a
transition to wintry precipitation types. Conditions will lower to
widespread IFR and lower this morning then persist through the TAF
period; 12Z/Friday.

KGFL: Rain transitioning to rain/snow mix this afternoon then to
snow late in the day with snow continuing through the overnight.

KALB: Rain transitioning to rain/snow mix by early this evening then
freezing rain and sleet then to snow late in the TAF period.

KPSF & KPOU: Rain transitioning to freezing rain after midnight.

Southerly flow ahead of the boundary shifting to the north with its
passage which will occur early this afternoon at KGFL, mid to late
afternoon at KALB and in the evening at KPSF and KPOU.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The mild weather and brief warm-up will be short-lived today
with a cold front moving through with mountain snow and rain
transitioning to a snow, sleet and freezing rain mix tonight
from north to south over the HSA. We are expecting limited
impacts to the ice on the waterways and to area water levels.
The estimated ice thickness on the northern basins is 9 to 15
inches and 6 to 9 inches on the southern basins. We are
monitoring some possible issues in the southern most basins in
Dutchess, Ulster, and Litchfield Counties.

The cold front is expected to slowly moves across the region
today into Friday. With a deep fetch of moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico becoming directed along the boundary and multiple
waves of low pressure developing and moving along it. Periods of
widespread precipitation will occur across much of the region.
The rain should turn to freezing and sleet south and east of the
Adirondacks, the western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George area
tonight.

Total QPF is projected in the 1 to 2 inch range with the
heavier amounts of snow possible over the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital Region, Lake George Saratoga
Region, southern VT and possible the Berkshires. At this point,
even with a moderate to heavy precipitation event, it appears
that temperatures will be too cold for significant break-up of
ice on area waterways to cause widespread issues. There could be
some run off of rain before the change to sleet, freezing rain
and snow and we will need to watch for river rises or break up
of ice for ice jams. Some ponding of water is possible on the
roadways with rain early this afternoon.

Colder and drier weather returns for the weekend with
temperatures plummeting back below normal.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST
     Friday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Friday for NYZ058-063.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST
     Friday for NYZ059>061-064>066.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Friday for NYZ041-049-050-052>054-083-084.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Friday for NYZ039-040-047-048-051.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ032-033-038-
     042-043-082.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST
     Friday for MAZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Friday for MAZ001.
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Friday for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
515 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ059>061-064>066-041200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
515 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and the mid Hudson Valley and southern and
central Taconics in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

There could be some run off of rain before the change to sleet,
freezing rain and snow and we will need to watch for river rises or
break up of ice for ice jams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ032-033-038-042-043-082-041200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Northern Fulton-
515 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks,
western Mohawk Valley, Lake George Region and northern Washington
County in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

MAZ001-NYZ041-049-050-052>054-083-084-VTZ013>015-041200-
Northern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
515 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, the
Glens Falls Saratoga region, Capital Region, northern and central
Taconics in eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ039-040-047-048-051-041200-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Western Albany-
515 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and eastern Mohawk
Valley, Helderbergs, Schoharie Valley in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ058-063-041200-
Western Greene-Western Ulster-
515 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Catskills in eastern
New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
655 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NYZ032-033-041>043-083-084-031400-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
655 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING...

Some pockets of freezing rain are possible over the southern
Adirondacks and the Lake George Saratoga Region this morning.
Temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark in a few spots
where it is not snowing. A few slick spots are possible on
untreated surfaces. Use caution if out on the roads.

The spotty freezing rain will either change to snow or plain rain
later this morning.

TAW