High Wind in New Mexico, October 16, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
621 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms along with patchy fog
expected today and tonight with wet weather continuing over central
and eastern New Mexico Monday. Any snow accumulations will be
relegated to the highest peaks, mainly over the peaks of the Sangre
de Cristo mountains. A strong east wind gusting to around 55 mph is
also expected below canyons opening into the Rio Grande Valley
mainly along and south of Albuquerque today. Much cooler than normal
today and Monday before a warming and drying trend Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Textbook upper-level diffluence over NM ahead of a closed upper-
level low over far southwest AZ early this morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue to lift north-northeastward over
the lower and middle RGV as well as along and near the backdoor
front racing to the southwest across east-central NM. 00Z model
suite continues with the idea that much of the forecast area will
transition from convective to stratiform rain several hours after
the backdoor front moves through Sunday morning through mid-day.
Thunderstorms will remain a possibility through the day west of the
backdoor front, particularly west of the Continental Divide.
Accumulating mountain snow is forecast mainly above 9,500 ft, most
likely along the east slopes of the central mountain chain where
precipitation will coincide with the colder air aloft. Widespread
precipitation is forecast to gradually end from west to east across
the forecast late tonight into Monday morning. Areas of fog are
likely along the east slopes of most mountain ranges tonight as a
strong enough easterly low level flow continues and combines with
copious residual moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

The storm system may be a bit slower to exit New Mexico than
previously forecasted, therefore left some small pops over portions
of south central and southeast New Mexico into Tuesday morning
before drying it out. Wednesday through Friday features dry weather
and a warming trend when highs warm to within a few degrees of
normal. A deeper surface lee trough will lead to increasing
afternoon westerly breezes Friday and highs 5-10 degrees above
normal over northeast and east central New Mexico. The GFS is now
dry for the upcoming weekend, but the ECMWF is not and went in that
direction with some chance pops. Winds may increase more on Saturday
with the tightening surface and upper gradient.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Vast areas of rain and high elevation snow will be common through
tonight. A few thunderstorms are currently ongoing in central
areas of the state, but these should gradually retreat to the far
western and southern areas of the state by this afternoon with
more garden variety showers and areas of steady rain/snow being
the norm by late in the day. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will
become more commonplace through the day with scattered areas of
occasional IFR conditions, and areas of more persistent low
stratus and fog will be most likely along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain (and secondarily along the continental
divide) late tonight into early Monday morning. Precipitation will
start to focus over east central New Mexico by daybreak Monday
with activity gradually coming to an end in western New Mexico
through the day tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

A storm system moving in from AZ will combine with a backdoor cold
front to generate widespread wetting rain and snow above about 9,500
feet. Dry weather returns Tuesday through the remainder of the week
with the next chance of precipitation forecast for late next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  45  63  38 /  80  30   5   0
Dulce...........................  60  35  62  31 /  60  30  10   5
Cuba............................  55  38  53  33 /  80  50  20   5
Gallup..........................  59  39  58  32 /  90  40   0   0
El Morro........................  52  38  51  33 /  80  60   5   0
Grants..........................  53  37  53  32 /  80  60  10   0
Quemado.........................  56  37  54  34 /  90  60  10   5
Magdalena.......................  51  40  50  38 / 100  80  10   5
Datil...........................  50  37  48  34 / 100  80  10   5
Reserve.........................  62  36  63  37 /  90  40  10   5
Glenwood........................  65  42  66  44 /  80  20   5  10
Chama...........................  54  31  57  29 /  70  30  10   5
Los Alamos......................  51  39  51  35 /  80  60  30   5
Pecos...........................  50  38  50  33 /  80  70  40   5
Cerro/Questa....................  52  26  55  26 /  70  40  10   5
Red River.......................  42  27  48  23 /  70  40  20   5
Angel Fire......................  44  28  50  20 /  90  50  30   5
Taos............................  54  34  56  30 /  80  40  20   5
Mora............................  45  33  50  29 /  90  60  40   5
Espanola........................  60  42  58  30 /  80  50  30   5
Santa Fe........................  51  40  50  35 /  90  70  40   5
Santa Fe Airport................  54  38  53  34 /  90  70  40   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  43  55  40 /  90  80  30   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  45  57  41 /  80  80  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  47  59  37 /  70  80  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  46  58  41 /  80  70  30   5
Belen...........................  59  47  59  41 /  90  80  20   5
Bernalillo......................  60  45  59  38 /  80  70  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  59  46  58  39 /  90  80  30   5
Corrales........................  60  45  59  39 /  80  70  30   5
Los Lunas.......................  59  48  58  40 /  90  80  20   5
Placitas........................  53  42  54  39 /  90  70  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  59  45  58  40 /  80  70  30   5
Socorro.........................  60  46  60  42 /  90  80  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  39  49  36 /  90  80  40   5
Tijeras.........................  51  41  51  37 /  90  80  30   5
Edgewood........................  50  38  50  35 /  90  80  40   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  39  51  33 /  90  80  40   5
Clines Corners..................  45  35  44  34 /  80  80  50   5
Mountainair.....................  49  38  49  35 /  90  80  30   5
Gran Quivira....................  50  38  50  35 /  90  90  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  58  43  56  40 /  90  90  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  51  38  45  35 /  90  90  50  20
Capulin.........................  49  35  54  31 /  60  30  10   0
Raton...........................  54  35  59  30 /  70  40  10   0
Springer........................  54  38  58  31 /  80  40  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  36  50  32 /  90  70  40   5
Clayton.........................  54  42  58  37 /  50  20  10   0
Roy.............................  51  41  51  34 /  80  50  30   5
Conchas.........................  56  46  55  37 /  80  60  40   5
Santa Rosa......................  51  44  50  38 /  90  80  50   5
Tucumcari.......................  55  46  55  38 /  70  60  30   5
Clovis..........................  54  46  54  42 /  90  80  40  10
Portales........................  57  47  55  43 /  90  80  40  10
Fort Sumner.....................  55  47  53  42 /  90  80  40  10
Roswell.........................  63  51  57  47 /  90  90  50  20
Picacho.........................  58  44  52  40 / 100  90  50  10
Elk.............................  58  40  50  37 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219.

&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...52