Elevated showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a closed upper-level low over Arizona behind a stalled cold front across West Texas. These storms produced locally heavy rainfall and localized severe winds across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos as storms crossed back over the cold front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a closed upper-level low over Arizona behind a stalled cold front across West Texas. These storms produced locally heavy rainfall and localized severe winds across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos as storms crossed back over the cold front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 16, 1:07 PM CST, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
207 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
An upper low INVOF SE AZ will move into western NM overnight.
Meanwhile, the cold front will have moved into the Trans Pecos
area. Post-frontal isentropic ascent still looks to persist
through the night and into Monday afternoon, but does weaken later
Monday Night. The associated upper jet looks to have trended
north some, and accordingly so the NAM12 has decreased QPF. Still,
the pattern is favorable for rain with rich moisture through the
column. The 00Z/16 to 12Z/16 runs of the HREF showed slight
decrease in QPF from the 1-1.25" to 0.75-1" across southeastern
NM/Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos through 7 AM Monday. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF has been consistently producing higher QPF than the
morning runs of the HRRR, while NAMBUFR sounding at MAF shows a
completely saturated sounding after 10 PM tonight, so will leave
the Flood Watch in place through at least tonight. Clouds and a
rain-cooled post-frontal air mass will allow for an unseasonably
cold day tomorrow with a narrow diurnal range, and temperatures
mostly hovering in the 50s. Clouds will have a chance to decrease
and/or clear out by Tuesday morning, however residual surface
moisture could favor formation of fog. Otherwise, it will be cool
Tuesday morning with widespread lows in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
The chaotic pattern will finally vacate to the east Tuesday as
the lingering shortwave gets absorbed into the mean longwave
trough centered east of the Mississippi. Lower heights will hang
around for one more day on Tuesday leading to highs generally in
the 60s for much of the region, but a nice return of sunshine. We
see a moderation in temperatures by Wednesday as a large ridge
across the west begins poking into the area with higher heights.
Highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows generally in the 50s, with 40s
to the north return area-wide from Wednesday through the end of
the week. Another meandering low off of Baja will be the next
disturbance to watch as guidance toys with opening the wave and
ejecting it eastward. A lot of details to parse with the system,
so will not mention much beyond Saturday. The one guarantee is the
weather will shift to quiet and mild for most of the forecast
period, considering how we start the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
Widespread precipitation continues across the area as cooler air
filters in behind this morning's cold frontal passage. While some
VFR conditions will occasionally occur, lowering ceilings and
visibility in precipitation will result in primarily MVFR/IFR
conditions at TAF sites through the rest of the day and into the
overnight hours. Winds will continue to be gusty at times from the
north and northeast behind the cold front with occasional gusts of
20 to 25 knots. Will continue to mention thunder in the TAFs
through the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 52 58 48 65 / 100 80 20 0
Carlsbad 51 55 48 62 / 100 60 30 0
Dryden 60 64 52 62 / 90 90 40 10
Fort Stockton 54 58 48 62 / 100 90 30 0
Guadalupe Pass 46 51 44 55 / 90 50 30 0
Hobbs 49 55 45 63 / 90 80 20 0
Marfa 49 57 41 58 / 80 70 30 10
Midland Intl Airport 52 56 48 63 / 100 90 20 0
Odessa 53 56 48 63 / 100 90 20 0
Wink 53 58 47 63 / 90 70 30 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-
Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Warning until 2 AM CDT Monday for Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
NM...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Central Lea County-Eddy
County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
Lea County-Southern Lea County.
&&
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...99Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-172030- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 /217 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, are expected to continue through tonight with the potential for flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area today and tonight. In addition a High Wind Warning is in effect late this afternoon through this evening for Guadalupe Pass. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
TXZ067-075-274-162045-
Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Ward-
317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PECOS,
EASTERN REEVES AND SOUTHEASTERN WARD COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...
At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southwest of Grandfalls, or 26 miles northwest of Fort
Stockton, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Grandfalls, Royalty, Coyanosa, Imperial Reservoir and B F Goodrich
Testing Track.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3108 10318 3131 10325 3147 10288 3111 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 253DEG 17KT 3123 10310
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
42Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
TXZ075-278-162045-
Pecos-Davis Mountains Foothills-
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL PECOS,
NORTHERN BREWSTER AND EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
CDT...
At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles southeast of Balmorhea Lake, or 29 miles northeast of Alpine,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Pecos,
northern Brewster and east central Jeff Davis Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3062 10350 3080 10354 3091 10320 3062 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 259DEG 20KT 3073 10341
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
TXZ075-162115-
Pecos-
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN PECOS COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...
At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles west of Fort Stockton, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Firestone Test Track.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3080 10330 3096 10330 3098 10305 3076 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 264DEG 15KT 3088 10320
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
419 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
TXZ075-278-279-162145-
Pecos-Central Brewster County-Davis Mountains Foothills-
419 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL PECOS
AND NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...
At 418 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Marathon, or 17 miles east of Alpine, moving east
at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Pecos
and northwestern Brewster Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3029 10347 3046 10351 3057 10316 3031 10311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 266DEG 23KT 3039 10336
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
430 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
TXZ068-075-162200-
Pecos-Crane-
430 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL PECOS
AND SOUTHERN CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...
At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles southeast of Grandfalls, or 21 miles southwest of Crane, moving
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Girvin, Cordona Lake and Imperial.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3103 10277 3130 10274 3136 10237 3093 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 270DEG 22KT 3115 10260
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
431 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
TXZ075-162200-
Pecos-
431 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM CDT...
At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Fort Stockton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3068 10307 3084 10306 3088 10270 3062 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 270DEG 22KT 3076 10292
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
42The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet Station 1SSW McCamey reported a 65 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1061275.