A deep trough was moving through the Four Corners region with strong southwest flow across the Borderland. West to southwest winds approached 60 mph over the Sacramento Mountains just ahead of this system.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A deep trough was moving through the Four Corners region with strong southwest flow across the Borderland. West to southwest winds approached 60 mph over the Sacramento Mountains just ahead of this system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 29, 10:08 AM MST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1008 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022
Windy conditions today, with the strongest winds in the higher
terrain. A cold front will move through the area tonight, cooling
temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees. Winds will diminish quickly as
the front passes tonight. Temperatures will warm back to near
normal for the end of the week. Widespread rain chances this
weekend and early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022
Current satellite imagery (~09Z) shows a trough approaching the
Rockies and subsequent sfc low over Kansas. Some gusty winds
currently exist across portions of the higher terrain and east
slopes thanks to 50 to 60 kts of wind at ~700 mb, which will be the
theme into Tuesday.
Main trough will progress eastward across the Rockies into Tuesday,
ejecting east by Tuesday evening. Winds aloft will still be strong
across the Borderland, mainly impacting area mountains Tuesday where
a High Wind Warning (gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and damage to
structures possible) remains in effect. The High Wind Warning
includes the Sacramento mtns and portions of the Gila and Black
Range. Breezy to low end windy conditions will be likely for much of
the lowlands (15 to 30 mph with higher gusts) with isolated pockets
of blowing dust possible.
Winds speeds quickly die off after sunset for most locations as
heights aloft rise and winds aloft decrease. The High Wind Warning
will expire at 8 PM as a result. Light sfc winds and mostly clear
skies (until some clouds approach by sunrise Wednesday) will result
in cooler temperatures Wednesday morning compared to Tuesday morning
with values in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022
By early Wednesday morning, a cold front has pushed through most
of the area with light northeasterly surface winds. Temperatures
will cool around 5 to 10 degrees with afternoon highs a couple
degrees below normal. A shallow upper level ridge will quickly
move over the area, re-establishing southwest winds aloft by
Wednesday night.
Southwest winds aloft will persist through the end of the work
week as a broad upper level high pressure moves northward in the
Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will warm back up to a few degrees
above normal by Friday with light winds out of the south, making
for quiet weather.
Southerly winds at the surface will eventually advect subtropical
moisture in the low levels by the weekend. Saturday morning,
deterministic models show surface dew points reaching into the
40s to 50s over the CWA. There is fairly good ensemble agreement
of this warm and moist airmass producing widespread rain showers
this weekend. Deterministic models (GFS/ECM) have been trending
slightly higher for weekend precip chances with this latest 00Z
run. There is still some time for uncertainty as we get closer to
the weekend as models have varied on the path of this moisture
from run to run.
Although temperatures will be seasonally warm in the higher
terrain this week, snow pack could hold until the weekend
(especially at the highest peaks). There is good confidence for
these next chances for precip being mostly rain as the airmass
will be too moist to allow temperatures to cool much below 40.
Rain on snow pack can lead to flooding concerns, and we will be
monitoring the potential this week.
Sunday evening, an upper level trough over the Pac NW starts to
dig south over CA. Deterministic models are in good agreement of
the trough becoming positively tilted as it swings over AZ/NM
Monday evening. Modest forcing and the anomalously moist airmass
combine and give the potential for some thunderstorms over the CWA,
especially along the Pacific cold front associated with the
system as it moves through. WPC clusters do show notable
uncertainty with the path and amplitude of this trough as it
moves down CA and over AZ/NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022
Expect west to southwest winds of 15-30G40KTS across the region
through about 00Z before quickly decreasing to AOB 10KTS and then
turning more north to northeast by 12Z. Skies SKC through 09Z
before a deck of SCT-BKN200-250 moves in from the south.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022
Windy to very windy west to southwest winds are expected into
Tuesday, mainly across area mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect. Humidity will be well above critical values across the
windiest locations with Good to Very Good ventilation. Winds will
decrease Tuesday evening with quiet conditions through the middle
and latter portions of the week featuring Poor ventilation and
min humidity in the 20 to 35 percent range. The next impactful
weather in the form of precipitation may be this weekend with the
chance for scattered rain showers and modest rain accumulations
across much of the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 68 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 63 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 62 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 62 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 39 22 42 27 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 62 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 52 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 63 29 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 60 30 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 66 38 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 65 30 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 69 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 59 33 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 68 35 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 65 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 63 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 62 27 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 63 28 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 65 33 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 63 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 50 25 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 49 25 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 48 24 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 55 26 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 60 28 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 62 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 52 22 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 58 30 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 60 22 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 53 24 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 57 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 65 30 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 64 30 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 64 32 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 58 33 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ402-408-
414>416.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ406.
&&
SHORT TERM...35-Delizio
LONG TERM....31-Dhuyvetter
AVIATION...26-GrzywaczHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 624 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 NMZ401-403>407-409>413-417-TXZ418>424-301330- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin- Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County- Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 624 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Breezy to windy conditions (wind gusts 30 to 45 mph) are expected through Tuesday. By the evening hours, winds diminish. The strongest winds will be capable of blowing around loose objects and decorations. Patchy blowing dust will be possible as well but likely insignificant, if it develops. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Quiet through the rest of the week before rain chances re-emerge this weekend and potentially into early next week. Modest rain amounts look possible across portions of the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NMZ402-408-414>416-301330- Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Eastern Black Range Foothills- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- 624 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico and southwest New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Windy to very windy conditions (wind gusts 50 to 70 mph possible) are expected through the day today. By the evening hours, winds diminish. The strongest winds will be capable of damaging structures and decorations in addition to a few power outages. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Quiet through the rest of the week before rain chances re-emerge this weekend and potentially into early next week. Modest rain amounts look possible. There could be some snow for the highest peaks of area mountains, but this looks like a warm system with mostly rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Sacramento Peak Mesonet station reported a peak gust of 59 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062783.