Another month with no precipitation worsened drought conditions in southern New Mexico with parts of southwestern Otero and far southeastern Dona Ana placed into Severe(D2) drought.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Another month with no precipitation worsened drought conditions in southern New Mexico with parts of southwestern Otero and far southeastern Dona Ana placed into Severe(D2) drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 10:19 AM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1119 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE Generally VFR conditions through period with SKC-FEW250, but there will be more smoke creating some areas of BKN040-060 around KTCS once again starting after 03Z. Could see some VSBY reductions to around 5SM around Sierra County. Winds will be picking up out of the west at 10-20G25KTS early this afternoon with a little winds weakening to 5-15KTS overnight and through the end of the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions continue through the work week. A cool front may pass through this weekend, bringing below normal temperatures. Breezy afternoon winds continue each day, with Friday seeing breezy to windy conditions. There is a low-end chance of precipitation for Hudspeth County Sunday evening. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tuesday and Tuesday Night... All is quiet across the Borderland region as of 2:00 AM, with the exception of some clouds over Hudspeth/Otero and far eastern El Paso Counties. A few areas across far southeastern Hudspeth County may experience a few sprinkles within the next hour or two, before dissipating and moving off to the east. A fairly weak and subtle shortwave trough will traverse west to east across the forecast area during the day. West/southwest flow in the low levels will increase during the afternoon hours as a 995-1000mb low develops over NE New Mexico and SE Colorado. In response, winds at the surface will become breezy during the afternoon and evening. A slight decrease in 500mb heights along with the thermal ridge axis shifting to the east will cool our temperatures 3-6 degrees from what they were yesterday. High temperatures across the lowlands will top out in the low to middle 90s. Areas of haze and smoke can be expected during the day across northern Sierra and Otero Counties as the Black Fire continues to burn in the Gila Wilderness. During the evening and overnight hours, patchy areas of smoke will drift further to the south as surface winds relax. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday... An UL shortwave will drop into the northern Baja Peninsula on Wednesday and strengthen into a closed low. At the surface, a low will undergo lee cyclogenesis in southern CO and move into northern NM. The pressure gradient across the Borderland won't be too strong; +/- 4 to 5mb. Therefore, this will only make for breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon (westerly at 10-20 mph). High temperatures remain quite similar to Tuesday (lowland lower to mid-90s). On Thursday, the closed low will drop into northern Sonora. A stronger lee-side low develops in southeastern CO, bringing a ~7mb pressure gradient across the FA. Winds will stay breezy but a bit stronger over Wednesday; westerly at 15-25 mph. Expect very little change in daytime highs. Friday, the low moves northwest into west Texas. However, the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAM vary in the strength and placement of this feature. Ultimately, this will determine the robustness and path of the attendant surface lee-side low that forms yet again, but this time in northern NM. Taking a look at the GFS and ECMWF ensemble winds and their ensemble means, Friday could shape up to be the windiest day of the forecast period. Currently, forecast wind speeds sits just below wind advisory criteria, but considering the airmass is still quite dry, this could trigger fire weather concerns (discussed further below). As we go into the weekend, the pattern changes now that the slow- moving UL low is out of the picture and troughing develops over the Western US. This will promote height falls and cooling temperatures as the worst of the H85 temps are shunted south of the International Border. MEX and ECX MOS guidance are both hinting at highs in the (lowland) upper 80s(!!) this weekend. This would be below seasonal average temperatures if they pan out. We haven't talked precip, and that's because there isn't much to say. Previous model runs were hinting at a dryline intrusion on Monday, creating the chance for rain at least east of the Rio Grande River. Models have backed off on this solution, only providing Hudspeth County with a few spotty chances at storms Sunday evening. Due to low confidence, have kept the provided low-end NBM PoPs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week. Upper level pattern shows a weak mid-to-upper level shortwave over the Desert Southwest, which will move west to east across the region on Tuesday. West/southwest flow in the low levels will increase during the afternoon hours as lee-side cyclogenesis develops over NE New Mexico. In response, breezy winds can be expected on top of Min RH values of 3-10%. The Black Fire will remain a concern in the near term as elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions develop this afternoon/evening. Fuels remain very receptive within the Gila (and all other fire weather zones) with ERC values above the 97th percentile and even some areas above record values for the middle of May. As we have seen over the past two days, the Black Fire has been experiencing intense fire behavior with the development of pyrocumulus clouds. The potential for similar fire behavior exists on Tuesday during the afternoon and evening hours. Bufkit sounding in northern Sierra County shows a reverse wind profile with winds decreasing speed as altitude increases. This allows a strong vertical smoke column to develop directly over the fire without shear aloft transporting the smoke out ahead. That being said, we may see intense fire behavior today associated with the Black Fire. On Wednesday, weak high pressure and ridging aloft will build in across the Desert Southwest. Overall, this will keep flow aloft relatively weak with light afternoon/evening breezes expected. That being said, Min RH values will remain critical with record to near- record fuels in place. Fire weather concerns gradually increase on Thursday and Friday as weak cyclonic flow develops across the region out ahead of a weak trough. Persistent lee-side cyclone development will result from the cyclonic flow with breezy to windy conditions. Friday will be the windiest with continued critically dry Min RH values in place. Fire weather products may be needed on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 96 67 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 95 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 94 57 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 70 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 94 62 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 83 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 93 55 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 91 56 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 95 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 95 55 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 98 60 96 59 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 88 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 96 63 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 93 61 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 93 67 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 92 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 93 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 93 62 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 94 60 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 84 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 81 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 80 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 88 51 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 90 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 92 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 85 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 88 52 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 93 42 93 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 85 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 87 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 92 54 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 91 55 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 90 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 38-Rogers/33/26
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 604 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-181215- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 604 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Lowland high temperatures around 95 degrees this afternoon will increase the risk of heat exhaustion and fatigue. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Breezy to windy conditions return Thursday and Friday. Outdoor objects will blow around if not secured. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Rogers
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
On May 17th, the north half of the zone was placed in Severe(D2) drought while conditions remained the same to the southeast where it continued to be Abnormally Dry(D0).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1026819.