A low level jet of over 30 kts coupled with ample low level moisture with dewpoints into the 50s to near 60 helped to aid for MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. As a result, 1-2 inch hail reports occurred mostly in the isolated cells but a couple wind gust reports later in the evening when storms became more clustered before becoming linear further northeast.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A low level jet of over 30 kts coupled with ample low level moisture with dewpoints into the 50s to near 60 helped to aid for MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. As a result, 1-2 inch hail reports occurred mostly in the isolated cells but a couple wind gust reports later in the evening when storms became more clustered before becoming linear further northeast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 3:35 AM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 435 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday and Wednesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Radar and satellite imagery at midnight revealed a decaying thunderstorm complex over the southwest zones. Even while reflectivity has been waning, numerous severe caliber wind gusts have been reported as the storms collapse. The highest gust was reported at Elkhart with 64 mph. Expect showers and thunderstorms with strong downburst wind/blowing dust potential to progress eastward adjacent to Oklahoma through the night. Cirrus anvil debris and light southeast winds will continue elsewhere. Tuesday is expected to be several degrees hotter and more humid, resulting in much higher instability building through the afternoon hours. Models continue to warm 850 mb temperatures with a net increase of about +6C over Monday, supporting the forecast of lower to mid 90s, with the hottest temperatures adjacent to Oklahoma (98-100). Bouyancy will be much improved Tuesday afternoon, with 00z NAM increasing MU CAPE to 3-4k J/kg across the central and eastern zones by 4 pm. The question is one of a convective triggering mechanism, and during the daytime hours, few if any are apparent. As such, the forecast is dry or has very low pops through 7 pm. After 7 pm through Tuesday evening, convective potential will increase, especially northeast of Dodge City, as a cold front arrives and interacts with the instability. 00z GFS forecasts a very warm +14C at 700 mb at DDC at the time of frontal passage this evening, so the most likely scenario is the cap will squash most updraft attempts and most locations will remain dry. Given the high instability and sufficient shear, marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC are justified, should a thunderstorm mature. Convection and large hail/damaging wind potential is higher across the northeast zones during the evening, and this is where chance category pops were retained. Clearly, the vast majority of rain and thunderstorms will be relegated to areas north and east of the DDC CWA, yet again. Cold front will sweep through Tuesday evening, with several hours of enhanced north winds. Gusts of 30-40 mph are likely, as shown by the 00z NAM/MET guidance. Daytime Wednesday will be dry through 7 pm and several degrees cooler, with a net decrease of about -4C at 850 mb reducing afternoon temperatures to the 80s with breezy northeast winds. 00z NAM/GFS both continue to suggest another thunderstorm complex arriving from Colorado Wednesday evening, after 7 pm. Pops were retained, favoring the western zones, for this expectation. More marginal wind risk is probable. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected Thursday, with afternoon temperatures commonly in the upper 90s. The typically hottest locales in the Red Hills are forecast to reach 100-102. Models show great continuity digging a strong closed cyclone into North Dakota Thursday afternoon, with an extremely warm downsloping 850 mb plume overspreading the high plains. Various models suggest the dryline will become hung up in the vicinity of the eastern zones at peak heating, with even a hint at convective attempts near the southeast zones. Convective inhibition will be intense, and the forecast is kept dry. Intense cold front is expected to invade NW KS Thursday evening, and crash through SW KS before sunrise Friday. This front will come through dry, but winds will be quite elevated and gusty. Nocturnal timing will reduce mixing and gust potential to an extent, still 00z ECMWF shows 50 kts of 850 mb SWly flow ahead of the front in the evening, and in the northerly flow behind the front early Friday. Friday will be dramatically cooler, with the current grids carrying about a 25 degree drop from Thursday's observed highs. North winds will be enhanced through midday Friday (stronger than NBM guidance) with afternoon temperatures struggling to near 70 north, and in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. 00z ECMWF depicts continued strong cold advection Friday night, with 850 mb thermal fields reduced to +1 to +2C across northern zones Saturday morning. Radiational cooling is no longer expected to be strong Saturday morning, with strong northeast winds, clouds, and likely post frontal frontogenetic banding of light rain by sunrise. Still, cold advection alone will send temperatures to the upper 30s and lower 40s for many. Increased NBM pops a tad Friday night/early Saturday to get more of a mention across the CWA, but forcing and lift look fleeting, only for a few hours early Saturday. Saturday will be unseasonably cool, but probably not as cool as 00z GFS/MEX suggests (50s). Cool high pressure will settle over the central plains, with 850 mb temperatures of only 7-9C, but with some expected late May sunshine, lower to mid 60s are expected (still 15 degrees below late May normals). Another cool morning Sunday in the 35-45 range, before quick moderation back to the 70s Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 VFR is expected to continue through this TAF cycle, but thunderstorms may impact the DDC/HYS terminals Tuesday evening (00-06z Wed). After 15z Tue, south winds will increase at all terminals gusting 25-28 kts. Convection is not expected at LBL/GCK for the remainder of the TAF period. A cold front will sweep through the airports 03-06z Wed, with an abrupt northerly wind shift, and north wind gusts of 30-40 kts. The cold front is expected to come through GCK/LBL dry. Although convective coverage will be limited, there is enough confidence to include VCTS/CB this evening in the DDC/HYS TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Elevated fire danger is expected across the far southwest zones adjacent to Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. Unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will drive minimum relative humidity to the 10-15% range. Winds will trend SWly at 10-20 mph during the afternoon hours. Do not feel gusts will be either strong or frequent enough to warrant red flag warning issuance. Regardless, very hot dry air will encourage wildfire growth across the drought stricken far southwest zones Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 94 58 85 57 / 10 20 0 10 GCK 93 57 84 55 / 10 20 0 10 EHA 96 57 87 56 / 10 10 10 20 LBL 98 57 87 56 / 10 10 0 20 HYS 90 59 82 57 / 20 30 0 0 P28 94 64 87 60 / 10 10 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner FIRE WEATHER...Turner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 242 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180745- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 242 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 /142 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tuesday. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Elevated fire danger is expected near the Oklahoma border Tuesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, with coverage favoring the northeast zones and during the evening hours. Any storm that develops will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, but coverage is expected to be limited. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Fire weather: Elevated risk * Severe thunderstorm wind/hail: Elevated risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday. Days 2-7 Discussion ------------------- Another round of thunderstorms is expected to arrive from Colorado Wednesday evening, with more marginally severe wind gust potential. Unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures are expected Thursday, with record or near record highs expected. A strong cold front will bring strong north winds Thursday night through early Friday, followed by dramatically cooler air Friday and Saturday. Days 2-7 Hazards ---------------- * Wednesday - Fire weather: Elevated risk - Severe thunderstorm wind/hail: Limited risk * Thursday - Fire weather: Significant risk * Friday No hazards. * Saturday No hazards. * Sunday No hazards. * Monday No hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed mainly northeast of Dodge City Tuesday evening. && For more details visit our webpage https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc Turner
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:38 UTC.
4 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds were estimated to be 60 MPH. The airport had a gust to 61 MPH.
The visibility was reduced in blowing dust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1032902, 1032903, 1032904, 1032905, 1032906, 1032907.