Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, May 17, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2022

Key Points:

* Isolated to scattered storms possible this evening mainly north of
  I-70.  These storms are largely expected to remain below severe
  limits, but can't rule out a strong storm or two.

* Complex of storms possible after 06Z tonight.  Hail, straight line
  winds main severe threats, with localized flash flooding possible.

* Warming trend Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front on
  Friday. Much cooler conditions this weekend into early next week.

Detailed discussion...

Complex set up with two surface lows shifting east across the
plains. As of 20Z, one low is situated near Chamberlain SD, while
second deepening surface low across southwestern Kansas.  Warm air
advection continuing to lead to increasing instability with surface
based CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg, with greatest instability to
the west and least instability to the north. Cluster of storms
across eastern Nebraska as of 20Z are expected to move across
northern Missouri through the evening hours. Limited instability
along the Iowa/Missouri should limit severe potential through the
evening hours, though an isolated strong storm or two is possible.

40-45 knot low level jet is expected to develop this evening across
the Central Plains feeding moisture north increasing PWAT values to
1.25-1.6" towards 06Z tonight. Strong mass convergence is expected
to lead to thunderstorm development along trailing cold front from
northern low across eastern Nebraska into Iowa.  Additional
thunderstorm development is expected across central Kansas as mid
level wave associated with southern low works east. The development
across central Kansas is expected in the 00-02Z time frame with
development to the north following a few hours after that. These two
areas of convection are expected to evolve into a complex shifting
south and east across the area. Steep lapse rates near 10 C/km in
the 800-700 mb layer in northwestern Missouri could lead to large
hail threat across northwestern Missouri.  Farther to the south and
east, expect damaging winds to be main severe threat, but will have
to keep an eye on localized flooding potential with PWATs near
climatological maximums.

Complex is expected to shift east of the area Wednesday morning.
Surface ridge is expected to lead to light winds, though lingering
low level moisture will lead to stratus through the morning hours.
Moisture should mix out through the afternoon, leading to seasonal
conditions.  Warmer southwest winds are expected on Thursday leading
to much warmer conditions.  Upper low across the Pacific NW is
expected to deepen and approach from the northwest on Friday.
Trailing cold front could be the focus for additional thunderstorm
development, a few of which could be strong to severe.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2022

Isolated storms become increasingly likely after 21Z today but are
expected to remain subsevere. Complex of storms expected
overnight, with gusty winds possible. Timing of storms is not
clear enough to include mention of gusty winds at this point.
Strongest storms are expected north of I-70. Behind complex of
storms, expect stratus to develop, gradually clearing throughout
the daylight hours on Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
512 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight into early
 Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats
 however, a isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition to the
 severe threat, 1 to 3 locally three inches of rain will be possible
 which may lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Strong storms will be possible south of Interstate 70 on Wednesday
 with gusty winds the main threat.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

MOZ001>003-172200-
Atchison MO-Worth MO-Nodaway MO-
354 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Worth,
northeastern Atchison and northern Nodaway Counties through 500 PM
CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blanchard, or 10 miles northeast of Tarkio, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Burlington Junction, Hopkins, Athelstan, Sheridan, Parnell,
Clearmont, Elmo, Pickering and Westboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9446 4043 9444 4044 9542 4058 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 267DEG 37KT 4056 9525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BMW