Wildfire in New Mexico, May 1 to 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1120 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Southerly low-level return flow will strengthen tonight and into
tomorrow. This may result in MVFR cigs across the southeast around
12Z, including KROW and KCVN, but should be short-lived. This low-
level return flow will help develop thunderstorms across the eastern
plains Sunday afternoon and evening with the potential for strong to
severe storms with frequent lightning, large hail, and damaging
winds. Across the west, southwesterly winds will strengthen with
gusts of 35 to 45 knots expected after 18Z. Smoke from ongoing
wildfires may result in MVFR cigs at KLVS and KSAF.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions expected tonight, except smoke impacting much of
north central New Mexico from ongoing wildfires. Sunday will be an
active day as much of central and western New Mexico will see another
round of critical fire weather conditions due to strong winds and low
humidity values, while eastern New Mexico will have the potential
for severe weather. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and even a
tornado or two will be possible across the eastern plains. Dry, but
more windy conditions are expected for Monday mainly along and east
of the Central Mountain Chain. Bouts of strong winds will be the rule
for the rest of the week as well with few opportunities for
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A weak upper level ridge is crossing NM today. It has graced us with
sunshine, only moderate winds and comfortable temperatures. The
ridge will move east tonight and Sunday and winds aloft will back to
the southwest aloft and increase in speed. This is a result of a
closed low and associated trough that will dive southeast into Utah
Sunday. Meanwhile a surge of low level moisture will move into
eastern NM tonight from the southeast, and set up a sharp dryline for
Sunday. This dryline may be across the eastern plains in the
afternoon. If so, there is a potential for severe weather near the TX
border Sunday afternoon. West and central NM will be windy and warm
with blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions. The storms in
the east will linger into early Sunday night.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
An upper level low will continue to track eastward across southeast
CO on Monday, with the upper level jet steered over NM. Strongest 7H
winds look to be in the morning, where models are depicted 50kt over
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Mid level winds will decrease through
the day to between 25-30kt but strong mixing and a surface low over
NE NM will continue to result in windy conditions at the surface for
areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Winds will
decrease in the evening as a backdoor cold front slides southward
through the plains. The increase in moisture behind the front,
however modest, will be welcome. The moisture will likely be short-
lived as another upper low tracks across the Intermountain West into
Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft will increase over NM on Tuesday and
daytime mixing will increase winds and likely mix out the moisture to
the TX border. Breezy to windy conditions are expected area wide.

Models are struggling as to whether the upper low will stay well
north of NM Wednesday, or will slide southeastward, before scooting
along the CO/NM line. Regardless, winds will pick up, yet again,
behind an associated cold front that tracks from northwest to
southeast across the state. As the backdoor segment of the front
moves into northeast NM Wednesday evening, there's a small chance of
a stray storm as moisture modestly increases once again. Less wind
expected for Thursday. Uncertainty grows for Friday as some models
suggest upper level ridging over NM while others suggest zonal flow.
Unfortunately, either way it looks dry, just a matter of how much
wind there will be.

CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY...

We got a break from widespread critical fire weather conditions
today as a weak upper level ridge moved over NM. But, critical to
extreme fire weather conditions will return Sunday as a potent upper
level low approaches the southern Rockies from over UT. Warm,
unstable, very windy and extremely dry conditions will prevail across
central and western NM Sunday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning for west
and central NM will remain as is, and we will leave the Fire Weather
Watch for eastern NM for Sunday afternoon. A surge of low level
moisture will move into eastern areas tonight from the southeast. A
dryline will set up on the eastern plains Sunday afternoon. Depending
on how fast the dryline moves east, areas near the TX border could
explode with severe weather. The storm system will cross NM Sunday
night and exit to the east Monday. Even so, enough wind and dry air
will allow for more critical fire conditions Monday in the east.
Another storm will cross NM later Tuesday and Tuesday night with more
wind, dry air and unstable conditions, and thus another period of
critical fire weather is expected for much of the area Tuesday
afternoon. The models go in different scenarios after that for the
middle of next week into the weekend. There does appear to be dry,
windy and unstable air for much of this time, so further critical
conditions are possible.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ101>103-105>107-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-107-108.

Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Sunday through Sunday evening for
the following zones... NMZ104-108.

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