Another month of well below normal precipitation kept much of Southwest New Mexico in Severe(D2) to Extreme(D3) drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Another month of well below normal precipitation kept much of Southwest New Mexico in Severe(D2) to Extreme(D3) drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:30 PM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1030 PM MST Mon Jan 31 2022 .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will continue at all terminals thru the TAF period. We will however see a general increase in cloud cover over the next 24 hours as a developing system to the west draws near. Initially P6SM with BKN250 along with WSW sfc winds generally below 10 KTS. Wind speeds will increase from the SW to 12-15 KTS gusting to around 20 KTS between 21Z and 02Z with SCT100 BKN- OVC200-250 expected across the region. Visibility will remain P6SM as any precipitation will hold off until after the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST Mon Jan 31 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather continues this evening and tomorrow ahead of the next storm system that will be affecting the region during the second half of the week. On Wednesday, an upper trough brings lowland rain showers, and mountain snow showers above 6500 feet. Rain and snow accumulation will be light. Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate on Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the arrival of a strong backdoor cold front. The combination of these two systems bring precipitation, mostly snow through the Borderland. Also very cold temperatures are expected behind the front leading to a long stretch of temperatures in the 30s or lower. Conditions improve on Thursday evening as we dry out, but cold temperatures persist into the weekend. && 29 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday... Quiet weather in the short term. There are some high clouds starting to move into the west as upper flow turns more west and then slightly southwest. The clouds will thicken up through the evening across most of the area and generally linger around through the day Tuesday. This will help to keep temperatures mild overnight with most areas likely remaining in the 30s with 20s in the mountains. Some westerly winds of 5-15 mph will aid in keeping temps warm as well. Tuesday looks like today with just the aforementioned high clouds around. Temperatures will be close to or just a couple degrees cooler due to the cloud cover. Winds will start to pick up in the afternoon out of the west, generally 10-20 mph, otherwise no significant weather is expected. && 26 .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday Night... The weather slowly starts to deteriorate on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Sacramento Mountains may see some flurries overnight, nothing significant. On Wednesday, an upper trough descending through the western US, will reach the Desert Southwest. This system brings lowland rain showers and mountain snow showers. Accumulations will be in the light side. Rain amounts will be less than 0.25 inch and snow amounts above 6500 feet will be generally below 3 inches. Although the highest elevations of the Sacs may see higher amounts. But my confidence is low to moderate with the snow amounts for the Sacs. The main story this week happens on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The passage of the upper trough from the west along with a backdoor cold front moving into the Borderland. Deterministic models have been struggling with the passage of this feature. The ECMWF currently is the most progressive pushing the trough axis out east by Thursday morning, while the GFS/NAM/CMC lag behind it at different rates. If you read the previous discussion it appears the latest runs have flipped from the previous run, with the ECMWF now leading the other models. The faster pace of the EC, and its ensemble members clears the precipitation faster than the other models. The GFS/NAM/CMC give a better chance for precipitation in the lowlands on Thursday morning once the backdoor cold front pushes through. The timing of the backdoor is a bit uncertain. Currently, models have the frontal passage up to the Rio Grande Valley in the very early morning hours of Thursday. However, if the front were to accelerate a bit the lowlands would be able to receive more snow than what we are expecting at the moment. In the past, this type of systems have moved faster. So, we will keep an eye on it over the next few days. Hence, the uncertainty about this event. Behind the front snow levels will drop to below 3500 feet. Thus, we will see snow to a certain degree across the area. Looking at snow total we will be issuing a winter weather watch later today or tonight for the Sacramento Mountains. The lowlands east of the Rio Grande may need a winter weather advisory, based on snow total on Wed night to Thurs, but will wait to see the new model runs tomorrow. We are more confident about how cold the temperatures will be behind the frontal passage. Max temperatures on Thursday will be 20 to 35 degrees below normal. I kept the lowland max temperatures on Thursday and Friday slightly above freezing, but there is the possibility for some areas in the lowlands staying below freezing through Saturday morning, if some models are to be believed. The GEFS 2-m temp plumes do keep El Paso below freezing both on Thursday and Friday. The Sacramento Mountains will stay below freezing through Saturday. Also, temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend across the CWA. The reason for the below normal temperatures this weekend is associated to another shortwave trough ejecting from the main flow and advecting more cooler air to our area. Thus, cold temperatures are expected through the weekend. However, we will be warmer than in the previous days. Afternoon highs will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal for the season. At least, we will be dry after Thursday evening. && 26 .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday will be similar to today with just some mid and high clouds around the area. Temperatures will be similar to today with RH's again falling into the teens. West winds will pick up in the afternoon but remain under 20 mph. A deepening trough will move into the western U.S. for Wed into Thu with increasing moisture and a push of very cold air overnight Wed. This will bring widespread lowland rain and mountain snow Wed with all areas changing over to snow for Thu. Some significant accumulations are possible in the Sacramento Mountains with light accumulations on the lowlands with greatest totals the further east you go. Temperatures will remain much below normal through the weekend, but dry conditions return. && 26 && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 40 65 44 59 / 0 0 0 30 Sierra Blanca 41 63 42 55 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 34 62 38 57 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 31 61 36 54 / 0 0 0 30 Cloudcroft 29 42 24 31 / 0 0 10 40 Truth or Consequences 35 61 34 54 / 0 0 0 30 Silver City 34 55 30 45 / 0 0 0 40 Deming 34 62 32 56 / 0 0 0 30 Lordsburg 31 60 32 54 / 0 0 0 40 West El Paso Metro 37 64 45 57 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 31 62 35 57 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 34 66 42 60 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 34 58 39 53 / 0 0 0 30 Fabens 37 67 41 59 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 34 63 39 57 / 0 0 0 20 White Sands HQ 40 63 43 56 / 0 0 0 30 Jornada Range 26 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 30 Hatch 34 63 34 57 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 37 64 37 57 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 32 63 40 56 / 0 0 0 30 Mayhill 34 54 30 43 / 0 0 10 40 Mescalero 32 52 28 40 / 0 0 10 50 Timberon 32 51 29 40 / 0 0 10 40 Winston 26 57 23 49 / 0 0 0 40 Hillsboro 36 59 32 51 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 31 60 31 54 / 0 0 0 30 Lake Roberts 21 52 26 43 / 0 0 0 60 Hurley 29 58 27 48 / 0 0 0 40 Cliff 24 59 26 53 / 0 0 0 50 Mule Creek 21 55 29 47 / 0 0 0 60 Faywood 35 57 31 49 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 32 63 33 55 / 0 0 0 40 Hachita 34 62 32 54 / 0 0 0 30 Antelope Wells 33 61 34 54 / 0 0 0 30 Cloverdale 35 58 35 48 / 0 0 0 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 27-Laney
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 607 AM MST Mon Jan 31 2022 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-011315- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 607 AM MST Mon Jan 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The next storm system will come into the picture on Wednesday. Breezy winds and chances for mountain snow showers and lowland rain showers can be expected. By Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, colder air and breezy winds will move into the area behind a strong cold front. Area mountains will continue to see snow on Thursday, with the possibility of some light snow accumulations across the lowlands. If snow accumulations occur, be sure to be cautious and take it slow on roads and highways. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be twenty to thirty degrees below the seasonal average, with lowlands struggling to get above freezing. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought through the month of February. The Buckhorn Cooperative Observer reported only 0.12 inches of precipitation which was 0.92 inches below normal.
Severe(D2) drought conditions continued through February. The Cooperative Observer in Gila Hot Springs recorded only 0.01 inches of precipitation which was 0.94 inches below normal.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought through the month of February.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought through the month. The Cooperative Observer in White Signal recorded 0.12 inches of precipitation which was 0.94 inches below normal.
All areas of the zone remained in Severe(D2) drought with just the southeast corner in Moderate(D1) drought. The Antelope Wells Cooperative Observer recorded 0.12 inches of precipitation which was 0.31 inches below normal.
The entire zone remained in Severe(D2) drought through the month of February.
The northwest half of the zone remained in Severe(D2) drought while the southeast was in Moderate(D1) drought. The Deming Airport reported only 0.01 inches of precipitation which was 0.61 inches below normal.
All areas of the zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought except for the far north which remained in Severe(D2) drought. The Hillsboro Cooperative Observer recorded 0.01 inches of precipitation which was 0.41 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought continued for most of the zone except the far east which was in Severe(D2) drought. The Truth or Consequences Airport recorded 0.18 inches of precipitation which was 0.12 inches below normal.
The western half of the zone remained in Severe(D2) drought while the east was in Severe(D1) drought.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1009214, 1009215, 1009217, 1009218, 1009219, 1009220, 1009221, 1009222, 1009224, 1009225.