High Wind and Winter Weather in Nevada, November 1 to 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
212 AM PDT Tue Nov 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong cold front will bring gusty winds today and chances for
mountain snow and valley showers through early Thursday.
Temperatures will begin to cool today with some of the coldest
air of the season Wednesday through Thursday. Mild conditions
return Friday into the weekend, with additional chances for
precipitation.

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.DISCUSSION...

No big changes this morning. A cold front/precipitation band were
moving into northwest CA early this morning and will arrive in
the northern Sierra/northeast CA around midday. Ridge winds were
already ramping up and will continue to increase through the day
and surface first in the Tahoe Basin before spreading to lower
elevations later this morning into the afternoon. Wind gusts
80-100 mph across ridges and 35-45 mph for lower elevations will
be common with a shorter burst of stronger winds possible with the
front.

Rain and snow will spread farther east and south as the front
progresses through the region. The most intense snow still looks
to be west of Hwy 89 this afternoon, shifting southward along the
Sierra Crest into Mono County late afternoon/early evening. It
will be the passes crossing the crest onto the west slopes that
will be most impacted by significantly reduced visibility and a
heavy wet snow accumulation during this initial band of snow. As
snow levels come down this evening, scattered snow showers may put
down 1-2" of snow down to lake level and along Hwy 395 through
Mono County as well as portions of northeast CA and northwest NV
nearer the vicinity of the upper low dropping in from the north.
By Tuesday morning, snow levels will be down to all valley floors.
Snow showers will be more hit or miss as the upper low tracks
across the area through early Thursday. Nevertheless, it will be
quite cold and light accumulations will be possible just about
anywhere, especially at nighttime. If you are heading through the
Sierra, best to plan on slick roads and slowdowns. For lower
elevations it will be more variable, but slick roads cannot be
ruled out for the early morning commute Wednesday and possibly
late in the evening commute as well.

Latest simulations show a broad cyclonic flow setting up across
North America this weekend into next week with cold air just to
our north. While we are not seeing any significant storms, this
pattern would support a series of weak-moderate storms with
periods of mountain snow, valley rain/snow and gusty winds. The
first such storm would affect the region this weekend, favoring
the northern Sierra/northern NV Sat-Sun, followed by a colder
storm early next week. Confidence in the details is low at this
time.

Hohmann

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.AVIATION...

* Ridge level winds were ramping up early this morning as a cold
  low pressure system approaches and will peak during the day with
  sustained winds 40-50 kts/gusts 70-85 kts. Surface winds were
  already beginning to increase as well for the Tahoe Basin, and
  these winds will spread to much of western NV by late morning or
  early afternoon with widespread gusts 25-30 kts, locally
  exceeding 40 kts. Periods of LLWS and moderate turbulence
  through this evening for all eastern Sierra and western NV
  routes. As the upper low settles south overnight, conditions
  will gradually improve, but the air may remain turbulent KMEV-
  KMMH until daybreak Wednesday.

* Precipitation still forecast to reach the Tahoe Basin/northeast
  CA by midday/early afternoon and then spread southeast through
  the afternoon/evening. There will be a 2-4 hour of more intense
  showers with the front for the Sierra this afternoon/evening
  with more showery conditions prevailing otherwise for all areas
  through Wednesday night as the upper low brings cold and
  unstable air. Snow levels will start around 6500 feet, rapidly
  falling to all valley floors tonight. Accumulations up to 2"
  cannot be ruled out at KTRK-KTVL-KMMH after sundown as
  temperatures fall below freezing. For late Tuesday night through
  early Thursday, some light accumulations are possible as much
  colder air arrives. More spotty accumulating snow up to 2" is
  possible just about anywhere if a heavy snow shower lines up
  just right.

Hohmann

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.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
     NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
     CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
     CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
     CAZ073.

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