High Wind in Nevada, November 1 to 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
137 PM PDT Tue Nov 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Dynamically driven weather continues to make its way
across the forecast area as a strong cold front moves thru
tonight and tomorrow. Windy conditions and valley snow are the
main concerns. Weather looks to remain generally unsettled into
next week.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night.

A robust Pacific trof and associated surface cold front will
continue to move into the western U.S. this afternoon. Current
satellite and radar imagery indicate the leading precipitation
band oriented north to south over N. California. These showers
will spread into Humboldt County late this afternoon and early
evening. Valley rain and mountain snow are expected with snow
levels lowering behind the front and into the overnight. The front
will continue southeast thru the forecast area tonight and
Wednesday, likely stalling across central Nevada as reinforcing
energy upstream moves in to help amplify the trof. This will allow
for the greatest storm snow totals to be focused in and near
White Pine County. Isolated to scattered snow showers will linger
behind the front Wednesday and Wednesday night. Most valley snow
totals look to be between a skiff and one inch. Valleys in and
near southern White Pine county might expect to see 2 to 4 inches.
Mountains can anticipate several inches to around a foot. Brief
slush ups will be possible on area roadways, especially during
periods of heavier snow associated with the initial frontal
passage overnight. Pass routes may even see an inch or two of
accumulation on the road.

Prefrontal south/southwest winds will continue to be windy this
afternoon and evening with gusts around 50 mph across most of
central Nevada and blowing dust may reduce visibility across parts
of the area. Winds will abruptly turn north/northwest post
frontal and trend lighter overnight yet remain generally breezy
thru much of Wednesday. Patchy blowing snow will also be possible,
mainly across the higher elevations where greater snow totals are
expected. Overnight low temperatures look to be mostly in the low
20s to low 30s with mid teens in the typical cold locations
tonight as colder air moves in behind the front. Daytime highs
Wednesday look to be in the low 30s to low 40s with overnight lows
in the mid teens to mid 20s, single digits in the colder
locations.

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.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

Latest model trends continue to see the exit of both the trough
and the frontal system Thursday eastward into the south-central
portion of the Untied States. With the trough’s exit, showers will
look to diminish throughout the morning and early afternoon hours
leaving most of the region dry by nightfall. Meanwhile behind the
trough, models expect cold and drier air to funnel in under
strong northerly synoptic flow. Winds will look to pick up during
this time bringing breezy conditions to most of the region for the
afternoon and evening hours. However, temperatures will see the
bigger impact from this change over as we get more of a winter
feel for the day. Expect high temperatures in the 30s to low 40s
and lows in the teens and single digits for that night.

Heading into Friday and the weekend, temperatures should warm
slightly as models see synoptic flow turn more zonal with the slow
descent of another trough from the Gulf of Alaska. While Friday
will look to remain relatively dry, an upper-level jet streak as
well as a surface low will look to bring a return of active
weather for Saturday and Sunday. Latest trends are expecting
showers to slowly descend into Northern Nevada Saturday bringing
chances of valley rain and mountain snow. Expect these chances to
spread further south heading into Sunday as the before mentioned
trough beings to reach into the Pacific Northwest and bend both
the upper-level jet and surface low further south. Heading into
Monday, models expect the trough to be just north of Sliver State
allowing for colder temperatures. Model agreement continues to
support the dropping of snow-level to the point that snow will be
likely clear down into the valleys. While the current ensembles
continue to show only a small amount of snow accumulations the
overall trend with snow amounts is an increasing one. The
ensembles have wavered for Tuesday with current trends showing the
trough lingering for longer causing continued showers in NV. The
weather for Tuesday remain very uncertain and will likely change
with future forecasts.

As for temperatures, models expect a brief warming period to be
present over the weekend with afternoon temperatures returning to
the high 40s to 50s for Saturday and Sunday. However, look for
these afternoon temperatures to slightly drop into the 40s for
Monday and Tuesday thanks to the troughs presence. Meanwhile,
overnight temperatures will look to fluctuate a little less as low
temperatures hang around low 30s to 20s with a some locations in
the teens for Monday night and Tuesday morning.

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.AVIATION...A frontal system will bring winter weather across the
silver state today and Thursday impacting all terminals. Winds
are S to SW and strong and gusty ahead of the cold front. Gusts
are in the 30s KT for all terminals except for KELY which has
gusts in the 40s kt. The winds will only weaken overnight when the
front passes through but this will change the wind direction to
NW to N. The gusty winds is causing blowing dust leading to some
reduced visibilities. The precipitation will spread from W to E
starting in the evening at KWMC and it will be the late evening
before it reaches KELY. This precipitation will start off more as
rain before rapidly shifting over to become snow. VFR conditions
will prevail into the afternoon before conditions degrade rapidly
in the late afternoon to early evening with the arrival of the
precipitation. This will see MVFR to IFR conditions for both low
visibilities and ceilings. Some improvements may occur Wednesday
afternoon but this is still has some uncertainty. Turbulence will
occur with the winds today and icing will occur with the
precipitation so check these forecasts at the Aviation Weather
Center.

AMD NOT SKED remains at KEKO due to ASOS equipment issues.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Ruby Mountains and
East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko
County-White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM PDT Thursday
for White Pine County.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County.

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92/99/99