High Wind in Nevada, May 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
217 AM PDT Mon May 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Widespread gusty winds today will lead to travel and recreation
impacts as well as increased fire danger. Lighter winds with a
warming trend is anticipated midweek with high temperatures rising
to about 10 to 15 degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday. A
chilly and windy Mother's Day Weekend is looking likely with
scattered rain and snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

No significant changes overnight with gusty winds the main story
today as a cold front pushes through the region.

The midday timing of the cold front will help to maximize thermal
gradients, with robust sustained wind speeds expected. Overall,
valleys could see peak wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range, locally
stronger in wind prone locations. 700 mb winds peak out around
60-65 kts for a brief period midday, with gusts across Sierra
ridgelines likely to exceed 100 mph during this time frame. There
are hints of downslope enhancement in model soundings and cross
sections so brief periods of stronger gusts exceeding 65 mph are
possible coming out of canyons along the US-395/I-80 corridor,
particularly from Reno south through Mammoth. The peak of the wind
speeds will be from approximately 10am-4pm before sustained westerly
winds "back off" to around 15-30 mph into the early evening. Winds
to turn northwest overnight and gradually weaken.

Winds today will almost certainly cause travel difficulties both
in the air and on the ground with potential for high profile
vehicle travel restrictions. Check with NDOT/CalTrans for ground
travel and with your airline if you happen to be flying in/out of
the area today. In addition, backcountry and ski recreation could
be impacted along with choppy conditions on area lakes. We could
also see areas of blowing dust downwind of dry lake beds and sinks,
especially across west-central Nevada, possible affecting I-80,
US-50, and US-95. Wind advisories are in effect from mid-morning
through this evening.

Showers are expected near the Oregon border today and we could
even pick up a few inches of snow in the Warner Mountains with a
dusting of snow in far northern Washoe County (north of Gerlach).
Otherwise this will be a dry front with minimum afternoon humidity
values dropping to 10-20%. The dry air along with gusty winds bring
enhanced fire weather concerns. Please avoid any activities that
could cause a spark.

Lighter winds and clear skies to follow on Tuesday with a warming
trend for the Sierra, northeast California, and northwest Nevada.
-Dawn

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday will feature warm afternoons with highs 10-15
degrees above normal, or mid-60s to lower-70s for Sierra valleys and
mid-70s to mid-80s for lower valleys. The upper ridge flattens
Thursday as the first in series of ever deeper waves moves into the
West. The lead wave is not expected to bring precipitation to
northeast CA and western NV as it remains too far north; however,
the wave will herald increased winds that will persist through the
weekend. Southwest-west breezes Thursday afternoon should reach the
25-35 mph range, with gusts up to 40 mph across northeast CA and
far western NV.

Active weather returns Friday into Saturday as waves begin to dig
farther south from the Pac NW. We'll see some chances for light rain
with high elevation snow showers, especially north of I-80 Friday
into Saturday. Increased winds over Thursday look possible Friday as
the next wave approaches the region, with EPS and NBM guidance
showing a definite bump in wind potential as a cold front pushes
through Friday. The NBM is indicating a moderate to high chance for
wind gusts to 45 mph or so across northeast CA and western NV near
and north of I-80.

After highs between Friday and Saturday drop some 10-15 degrees
behind the cold front, they are set up to fall another 5-10 degrees
by Sunday as yet another disturbance and front push through the
region. Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s
for Sierra valleys, with 50s to around 60 for lower valleys. As for
precipitation, Sunday's wave may be cold enough for snow showers at
or near lower valley floors, although details are nebulous enough
that there is considerable uncertainty at this time. In any case,
given the time of year, any snow showers would most likely have to
fall overnight through about 8 AM to cause travel troubles.

Early next week, confidence in chances for showers but especially
temperatures craters as some simulations keep the cold upper trough
overhead while others begin to eject the trough eastward for warmer
temperatures and drier conditions. The EPS suite has highs varying
between about the lower 50s and near 70 for Reno Monday. Have fun
guessing which end of the spectrum winds up occurring!

-Snyder

&&

.AVIATION...

Big story remains the strong winds today as a cold front shifts
through the region midday. Southwest to west winds could gust 30-40
kts for terminal sites from approximately 18z Sun - 03z Mon. FL100
winds will be sustained 35-50 kts most of the day, peaking 50-65 kts
midday as the front comes through. This will lead to mountain wave
activity and turbulence along and downwind of the Sierra.

Wind shear is another concern, first early this morning as winds
increase aloft, but haven't quite mixed down the surface, then a
secondary period along the cold front midday. There should be enough
mixing and limited directional/speed shear behind the front to limit
LLWS concerns but don't let that fool you -- it will still be quite
turbulent. Winds may loft dust off of sinks and dry lake beds primarily
in west-central Nevada eastward, obscuring terrain.

Rain and snow showers are expected near the Oregon border today with
lower ceilings obscuring mountain tops. Elsewhere, skies will be clear
to partly cloudy.

Winds to gradually weaken tonight and turn northwesterly. Lighter winds
and clear skies are expected on Tuesday. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ005.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ002>004.

CA...     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ070-071.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ073.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno