Rip Current in Florida, May 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
258 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...

Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon and evening across the interior and Gulf Coast as the
Atlantic sea breeze continue its march inland. Lackluster
instability and very dry upper levels will keep higher thunder probs
in check. However, brief heavy rainfall over areas that recently
received heavy rainfall across Collier and Hendry Counties will be
possible. This activity will start to dissipate around or shortly
after sunset. Nocturnal showers will again be possible over the Gulf
Stream tonight, similar to the last several.

Going into tonight, eyes shift upstream as an H5 impulse will begin
to take shape across the western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a
wave of low level tropical moisture within the low latitude
easterlies will be moving into the Bahamas. These two feature will
begin to interact beginning on Tuesday. With the cooling upper
levels, expect a bit better thunder potential by Tuesday afternoon
and into the evening. With a bit better instability and DCAPE of
around 1000jkg, there may at least be a bit higher chance of winds
and with cooling temps aloft small hail would not be impossible. The
better coverage looks to be interior and Gulf Coast again with the
sea breeze, but even Atlantic will see a bit higher coverage with
the better more supportive environment forecast to develop.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...

Wednesday: A fairly convectively active day is expected on
Wednesday as cool temperatures aloft (H5 temps around -11C) will
overly a warm (highs in the mid to upper 80s) and humid airmass
with peak SBCAPE values potentially exceeding 2000 J/kg Wed
afternoon. Although synoptic lift will be a bit less than Tuesday
as the mid-lvl shortwave axis should be positioned offshore,
heights won't yet be increasing and expect scattered to numerous
storms to develop along the Gulf/Atlantic breezes. Given the
weakening synoptic easterly flow, the boundaries should both make
inland progress so initiation may be focused over the interior.
However with outflow regeneration and limited storm motion expect
this activity will propagate towards both coasts with time. Main
threats with storms would be heavy rainfall (given the somewhat
weak steering), hail (given the steep mid-lvl lapse rates), and
gusty winds (steep low-lvl lapse rates and DCAPE values near 1000
J/kg).

Thursday/Friday: The end of the week will be less active as
ridging noses in the from the SW and temperatures aloft warm.
We still retain enough low-lvl moisture to support at least
isolated storm development on the sea breezes both days, with an
interior focus on Thursday transitioning to more of an Interior-
east coast focus on Friday as the low-lvl flow transitions more
SWrly. Above average temperatures are expected both days as highs
run in the upper 80s to around 90.

Saturday-Monday: Relative to yesterday, guidance has come into
better agreement that the next trough will reach the east coast as a
closed-low rather than an open wave and will consequently be less
progressive. This will result in the cold front remaining stalled
to our north, while the low slowly meanders eastward and then
potentially becomes cut-off over the western Atlantic early next
week. Given modest height falls and moisture convergence/pooling
as frontal waves develop to our north, the period looks somewhat
unsettled, although enough discrepancies still remain to preclude
anything more than low-end Chc PoPs at this point. Temperatures
will remain warm in this period and westerly-southwesterly flow
likely resulting in highs near 90 over the east coast for the
weekend. It is possible some drier air works in from the NE on the
backside of the low on Monday but this remains too far our to
have much confidence.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Convection is expected to develop across the interior and perhaps
drift close to APF this afternoon or early evening. Carried VCs but
a short fused TEMPO may be possible. Otherwise, things appear quiet
for the Atlantic terminals. Light/Moderate easterly flow will
continue with perhaps a SSW/SW wind setting up this afternoon behind
the Gulf Breeze at APF. Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...

On the western periphery of high pressure, moderate easterly flow
will continue across the region through around midweek. A plume of
low level moisture will begin to move across the region on Tuesday
or Wednesday. This along with some weak upper support may produce
shower and thunderstorm activity across the local waters. The
strongest activity may produce strong gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-
water lightning, and waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...

Onshore flow will continue to produce a high risk of rip currents
through Tuesday for all Atlantic Beaches. Broward and Miami-Dade may
improve slightly by midweek, but PBC beaches will likely keep the
high risk a bit longer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  86  75  86 /  30  50  40  50
West Kendall     73  87  72  88 /  30  50  40  50
Opa-Locka        74  87  73  87 /  30  50  40  50
Homestead        74  85  73  86 /  30  50  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  76  84  74  85 /  30  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  75  84  73  84 /  20  50  40  60
Pembroke Pines   74  86  73  86 /  30  50  40  60
West Palm Beach  74  84  72  84 /  20  50  50  50
Boca Raton       75  85  73  86 /  20  50  50  50
Naples           71  89  72  89 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Frye
Tuesday Night through Monday...Carr

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
426 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
031430-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
426 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022

...A High Risk of Rip Currents Along the Atlantic Beaches...
...Scattered Storms Interior and West Through The Evening...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: A high risk of rip currents remains in place across the
Atlantic Coast beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the interior and western portions of South Florida through the
evening. Gusty winds and localized flooding may be possible with the
strongest activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The high rip current risk will continue through midweek across the
Atlantic Coast beaches.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the middle
of the week. Some of the thunderstorms could become strong
especially across the interior during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.