Winter Storm and High Wind in Nevada, March 9 to 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
323 AM PST Wed Mar 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A fast moving cold front will bring breezy winds starting this
afternoon, with a period of light snow showers tonight into
Thursday morning. Strong, cold north to east winds are expected
Thursday. High pressure moves in Friday and over the weekend for
quiet and much warmer conditions. There is potential for a system
with mountain snow and valley rain early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

...VERY WINDY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY THURSDAY...

A system over southern British Columbia will drop into extreme
eastern California and Nevada late tonight into Thursday in an
"inside slider" fashion. This will push a sharp cold front through
the region. While the business end of the slider will more strongly
affect central and eastern Nevada, low to moderate impacts from
wind and lower-end impacts from light snow remain on the table
for western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra.

* SNOW: Most guidance continues to produce a narrow band of snow
  along the western periphery of the incoming front late Wednesday
  evening into pre-dawn Thursday morning. Most of this is south of
  Hwy 50 and west of Hwy 95 in western Nevada into the eastern
  Sierra, where the front gets some upslope help.

* Many areas including farther north near Reno and Fallon could
  see a few snow showers with a medium shot at a dusting of snow;
  however, with the front jamming south in a hurry, when you raise
  the threshold to 1" the best probabilities (40-70%) are focused
  well south of Hwy 50 in southern Alpine County, the northern
  half of Mono County, and across Mineral and southern Lyon
  counties, with a 20-40% chance of 2". With temperatures
  plummeting well below freezing, even just a light snowfall will
  yield hazardous driving conditions Wednesday night and Thursday
  morning.

* WIND: Still looks somewhat breezy this afternoon ahead of the
  front but nothing too eyebrow-raising. Widespread gusts on the
  order of 30-40 MPH could result in travel impacts for wind prone
  roads and some choppy water on area lakes especially Pyramid
  which tends to funnel those W/NW winds. Breezes will stay up
  Wednesday night as the front rolls through, switching to more of
  a N/NE direction through Thursday.

  N/NE winds tend to favor our eastern Sierra valleys such as
  around Benton and Bishop for stronger winds as colder, denser
  post-frontal air spills downhill into the Owens Valley. The NBM
  is showing a 50-70% chance for gusts over 55 mph Thursday.
  Meanwhile, the Sierra crest will really start to howl Thursday
  as winds turn more NE on the backside of the upper trough with
  500 mb winds up to around 70 knots. Seeing gusts near 100 MPH
  with wind chills -10 to -25F for exposed ridges along the crest
  is likely Thursday. Wind chills of -20 can bring frostbite in
  30 minutes. Rough water on Lake Tahoe is also likely Thursday as
  easterly winds get cranking. A lake wind advisory has been
  issued there. For Pyramid Lake, rough lake waters are also
  expected; however, the strong wind period is expected mainly
  Wednesday night when the lake is closed to boaters.

-Snyder/Chris

.LONG TERM...Friday into Next Week...

High pressure ridge strengthens over the West with a warming and
drying trend on tap. Temperatures will be quite mild with lower
valleys in the mid to upper 50s and Sierra valleys hitting the upper
40s to mid 50s.

For the weekend, the weather pattern is attempting to make a shift.
Ensemble clusters show the ridge flattening which will crack open
the 'storm door' to the West Coast. A weak system will push through
the Pacific NW on Saturday afternoon allowing for southwest to west
winds to kick up across the Sierra and western Nevada, particularly
along and north of Highway 50. Precipitation chances (15-30%) with
this system will edge into far northern CA and NV for late Saturday
into Sunday, with the best chances from Tahoe northward. Winds will
be the larger 'feature' with this system, with gusts 30-40 mph in
the lower valleys. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles show potential for
another round of precipitation on Tuesday as well. The system for
Tuesday appears wetter in nature with the potential for low elevation
rain and high elevation snow.

The next potential for some 'fun' weather will be early next week.
Ensemble cluster analysis has been consistent with the ridge
flattening and more progressive flow into the West, but it may not
be flat enough to pull in the Pacific moisture queuing up. The
variability in the EC/GFS ensemble members make it difficult to say
exactly what early next week will look like but we can glean some
potential weather. IVT probs for the EC/GFS are both targeting a
short period of time where Pacific moisture may intersect the Sierra
and western Nevada next week which would result in a period of
gusty winds and precipitation. There is a scenario where the bulk of
that subtropical moisture stays north of the region and we don't get
much at all.

Beyond early next week, the 8-10 day ensemble clusters and 8-14 day
CPC outlooks tell the forecast story pretty well. There is some
increased potential for periods of precipitation but the better
chances remain across the Pacific Northwest for now. A blocking
ridge in the Gulf of AK appears to remain a fixture leaving us
with not many options for appreciable moisture incoming from the
Pacific.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

* A fast-moving trough will drop through Nevada today into Thursday
  with increasing northwest-north winds and chances for showers over
  Sierra and western NV terminals.

* WINDS: North to northwest wind gusts (15-25 kts) today will
  transition to northeast-east late tonight into Thursday morning.
  By Thursday morning, strong Sierra crest east winds will result in
  turbulence and LLWS concerns along the Sierra crest and westward
  for Thursday.

* Strongest north wind gust potential is targeting the eastern
  Sierra from near KMMH and southward, where wind gusts will likely
  exceed 35 kts for several hours this afternoon and evening.
  Blended model guidance suggest a 25% chance of wind gusts >48
  kts.

* SNOW: Snow (trace or more) chances will range 15-25% for western
  NV terminals and 30-40% for Sierra and Mono County terminals.
  Accumulations will likely be hard to come by due to the fast
  nature of the front and the warm-ish temps of late. KBDG and KHTH
  may be the 'winners' on the snow accumulations, but even so it
  will likely be a quick-hitting 2 inches.

-Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for Lake Tahoe
     in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for Lake Tahoe
     in CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service RENO NV
255 AM PST Wed Mar 9 2022

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-100000-
Surprise Valley California-Lassen-Eastern Plumas-
Eastern Sierra Counties-Greater Lake Tahoe Area-Mono County-
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties-Greater Reno-Carson City-
Minden Area-Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake-
Northern Washoe County-
Including the cities of Cedarville, Eagleville, Fort Bidwell,
Portola, Susanville, Westwood, Sierraville, Loyalton,
South Lake Tahoe, Tahoe City, Truckee, Markleeville, Bridgeport,
Coleville, Lee Vining, Mammoth Lakes, Hawthorne, Yerington,
Smith Valley, Mina, Schurz, Stateline, Glenbrook,
Incline Village, Sparks, Verdi, Gardnerville, Virginia City,
Fernley, Fallon, Lovelock, Silver Springs, Nixon, Imlay, Empire,
and Gerlach
255 AM PST Wed Mar 9 2022

...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

* CHANGES: Mention of strong winds in the Chalfant/Owens Valley

An inside slider-type system will bring snow showers, gusty
northerly winds, and a brief period of colder temperatures late
Wednesday through Thursday.

* Although snowfall totals are expected to be on the lighter side,
  these types of systems are notorious for relatively low
  predictability - especially when it comes to snow amounts.
  Western Nevada and the Sierra will have a chance of receiving
  accumulating snowfall by Wednesday evening, spreading south
  along the eastern Sierra into Thursday. Motorists should be
  prepared for possible winter driving conditions, particularly
  during the Thursday morning commute.

* Gusty winds will begin Wednesday afternoon. Northerly wind gusts
  between 30 and 40 mph will be possible for valleys (exception
  below), with gusts over exposed ridges along the Sierra crest
  increasing to up to 100 mph. Hazardous boating conditions,
  aviation and ski impacts, and elevated concern for high-profile
  vehicles are possible across the region.

* CHALFANT/NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY: North winds of 20-35 mph with
  gusts to 50 mph are expected Thursday, with gusts as high as 60
  mph possible.

* Breezy winds on Thursday combined with afternoon highs in the
  30s to lower 40s in valleys will result in a chilly day. Wind
  chills in the high Sierra are likely to be between 0 and -25
  degrees with frostbite a concern.

http://weather.gov/reno