Drought in Nebraska, February 1 to 28, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

Strong westerly winds across the central and northern Panhandle
moving into the central and northern sandhills. Gordon and
Valentine have each gusted to 52 and 46 mph respectively so far
today. The presence of considerable high clouds further south and
east have limited mixing and gustiness. Temperatures also limited
to the mid and upper 50s most areas so far today. Minimum
afternoon humidity has been as low as 9 percent at Valentine and
Ainsworth. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6 pm CST
for all of western and north central NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 341 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

The forecast concern in the short term will be the colder
temperatures, with snow chances increasing across the west and
southwest Tuesday night.

A cold front will drop quickly southeast this evening. Continued
to use the 90th percentile for winds. Northwest winds may gust to
30-35 mph, especially across the western Sandhills. Kept lows up
tonight in the 20 to 25 above range, given the sufficient mixing
from wind, and the delay in reinforcing cold air until after 12Z
Tuesday.

The reinforcing cold air drops quickly south on Tuesday, limiting
high to the upper 20s/near 30 far northern NE. Did raise highs
across the south a few degrees to the upper 30s to around 40, with
the colder air not arriving until mid afternoon. Sunshine should
return to north central NE by afternoon as southern areas remain
cloudy.

Going into Tuesday night, A positevly tilted upper trough will
extend from the Desert Southwest through the Northern Plains,
joining up with a deep closed upper low centered over northern
Manitoba. This upper trough will begin to saturate the atmospheric
column from the Four Corners Region to areas just to our west and
south. Strengthening surface high pressure and the northern stream
trough across the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes will
maintain a much drier atmosphere. Increasing isentropic upglide
shown by the 12Z GFS indicates the potential for saturation and
low pressure deficits. The limiting factor for snowfall across
much of the area Tuesday night is the presence of drier air below
800mb. The southwetern areas (southeast panhandle and southwest)
should saturate enough for a dusting to around a half inch by
daybreak Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

There is a favorable coupled upper jet later Tuessday night
through Wednesday, providing upper level divergence to the Tri-
State region (to include all of the western Sandhills and
southwest). Model differences remain, with the 12Z and 18Z NAM
keeping much of the area dry, except western Sandhills and far
southwest generating a dusting to half inch. The deterministic
GFS and ECMWF as well as the ensemble mean from each output higher
amounts from a half inch to near 3 inches across the western
Sandhills and southwest. The highest amounts near 3 inches would
be across far southwestern areas (western Deuel and southwestern
Chase County). This is close to the latest official forecast. With
models continuing to trend down slightly the past 4 model runs,
confidence is below average on forecast snowfall amounts. Snowfall
chances are likely to categorical on Wednesday, with a chance
lingering Wednesday evening. This looks to be a longer duration
snowfall event of up to 24 hours across our west and southwest.
Impacts look to be low, although an east to northeast wind 10 to
15 mph, gusts to 20 mph could cause some minor blowing snow.

A much colder airmass will be present Wednesday through Thursday
with a surface highs to 1040mb over the area. Highs Wednesday
only reach the mid to upper teens with wind chills Wednesday
morning, and again Wednesday night as low as 5 to 15 below.

Thursday through next Monday forecast is dry. The arctic high
will begin to move off to our east Thursday, and still very cold
from around 20 to the low 20s.

Upper ridging through Saturday, with an upper trough and cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. Highs from 45 to 50 Saturday,
cool back to the low to mid 40s Sunday. Warmer again Monday with
upper ridging and warmer air returning to the region with highs
into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Aviation
concerns will continue to be sporadic gusty surface winds out of
the west with speeds approaching 20 knots at times along with LLWS
at both terminals.

Surface wind gusts will increase Tuesday afternoon at LBF with
peak speeds around 20 knots. Winds will decrease late in the
period as lower CIGs begin to move in from the west.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-020015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
613 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022 /513 PM MST Mon Jan 31 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

There is a chance for winter weather Wednesday that may cause
wintry hazards, but at this time details for the area are
uncertain, continue to monitor for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte