Montana, 2022

High Wind in Montana, February 7, 2022

February 7, 2022 · NWS GGW · 1 event in 1 county or zone

The atmosphere set up a strong low-level jet stream over our region, which easily reached down to the surface, especially just downwind of our higher elevation areas in southwest Phillips County. A subtle embedded low pressure disturbance kept strong and gusty winds sustained through most of the evening hours.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.

The atmosphere set up a strong low-level jet stream over our region, which easily reached down to the surface, especially just downwind of our higher elevation areas in southwest Phillips County. A subtle embedded low pressure disturbance kept strong and gusty winds sustained through most of the evening hours.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 10:38 AM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 10:38 AM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1038 AM MST Mon Feb 7 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Sent an update this morning simply for small adjustments to
temperatures, winds, and sky cover. Current headlines for fire
weather and high winds are well in place. Temperatures have
already climbed up through the mid 40s for our central and western
zones. Will be watching winds and humidities today.    BMickelson

Previous discussion: Today: Northwest flow is in place with
downslope air moving through the area warming things up. Looking
back at yesterday, the inversion again broke for most of the area
allowing for lower 40s to lower 50s in the west. Monday's 850s
Temps are 4 to 5*C higher than yesterday. So, decided to a dig bit
deeper again. In the ensembles data there is a very strong set of
swings from run to run for the GFS, EC, and NAM. the swings are
all based around whether and inversion will exist or not across
the area. With prefrontal warming and strong winds aloft for
mechanical mixing, there is no way today will keep a solid
inversion. Therefore, the higher solutions for temperatures and
lower solutions for RH are the most likely outcome from these
harsh model run mood swings. To add to the warm temperatures, the
prefrontal warming will also be in place right around peak
heating, further pushing the warm story along.

When looking at the difference between the Feb 4th and Feb 6th
MODIS imagery the decrease in snow coverage is dramatic and
striking. The question is where did the moisture go? Paying some
attention to yesterday's soil moisture reading near Jordan the
moisture is at only 10% of normal. So, the answer is that it was
lifted up and transported away rather than entering the soil. This
is all pointing toward the Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning. So, will put a little more time in for an
unseasonal FWF discussion.

The second thing of notice for Monday is that a 40 to 60kt 850 mb
speed max enters the area with a brief disturbance late in the
afternoon hours. With no inversion and decent lapse rates above 5
C/km this has high confidence of mixing to the surface along a
corridor west of a line from Malta to Jordan to Lindsey divide.
The confidence problem here really sets in with the speed of the
850 mb wind max. A 20 kts range of speed difference among model
runs may not be sufficient to cause impacts beyond southwest
Phillips with over half the solutions being below 50 kts even if
all the momentum is mixed down.

Monday night to Thursday night: Northwest flow will remain in
place with Thursday potentially being another very warm day.
However afterward the temperatures should begin to decline late
into the work week behind another cold front.

Friday onward: Ensembles disagreement is still highest here under
northwest flow. Northeast Montana looks to be on the cooler side
of the boundary Friday but warming again quickly into the weekend.
However, into early next week the outcome is anyones guess. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 1730Z.

LLWS: Low level wind shear will be possible off and on through
the whole cycle for each terminal. It is not expected to shut off
as a threat until about 16Z Tuesday.

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Inversion layer from this morning will quickly
disappear before noon, and allow for mixing and better flying
conditions, but later after mid-day, a strong frontal system will
bring gusty west winds to all TAF sites.

WIND: Light from the SW this morning, then from the west at 15 to
20 kts later this morning, then from the west at 20 to 30 kts by
this afternoon, with some higher gusts.

BMickelson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns are elevated today as a seasonably unusual
rise in surface temperatures is expected for areas south and west
of Fort Peck Lake. Strong frontal winds from the west are already
gusting above 35 mph. Humidity recovery overnight was lessened or
interrupted. Models have not caught these anomalous conditions
very well. Colder air mass will move into the region after
tonight. BMickelson

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for MTZ135>137.

High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for Southwest
Phillips.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Little Rocky Mountains

When
February 7, 12:43 PM MST to 6:55 PM MST
Where
Little Rocky Mountains forecast zone
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways
Coordinates
48.259, -107.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Intermittent wind speeds of at least 40 mph were common in the Little Rocky Mountains from early afternoon to the early nighttime hours. The peak wind gust of 60 mph was recorded at 2:43 PM at the Malta South US-191 DOT site (MTMAL).

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1008147.