On December 31, a snowmobiler was killed in a very large avalanche north of Cooke City, Montana. The avalanche occurred near Daisy Pass on Crown Butte on a southeast facing slope at 9,800'.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
On December 31, a snowmobiler was killed in a very large avalanche north of Cooke City, Montana. The avalanche occurred near Daisy Pass on Crown Butte on a southeast facing slope at 9,800'. Two brothers (age 17 and 21) from Washington were snowmobiling uphill on adjacent slopes. The older brother was climbing a steeper slope and triggered the avalanche 100-200' below the top. He was carried 600 vertical feet and buried 5 feet deep. The buried rider was wearing an airbag pack that was not deployed. Both riders had shovels and probes. They were not wearing avalanche beacons. A nearby group of riders rode up to the slide within minutes after it happened, saw a buried snowmobile and began to search for the rider. One rider from that group went into Cooke City to alert Search and Rescue. The buried rider was located with a probe line an hour after the avalanche happened. He was unable to be revived with CPR and AED at the site. The avalanche appeared to be 2-4' deep, 500' wide, 600' vertical, and broke on weak snow near the bottom of the snowpack. For more information, please see www.mtavalanche.com.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 30, 1:47 PM MST, 10 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
147 PM MST Fri Dec 30 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Sunday Night...
Pressure falls over Livingston have allowed a localize pressure
gradient to persist there and allowed winds to gust to 60 mph as
of 1 PM this afternoon. that said , pressure is not starting to
rise, and these gap winds should quickly decrease in speed
throughout this afternoon. Outside of wind, a very weak wave with
modest moisture in the mid-levels is crossing out cwa from west to
east. While mostly virga is being produced by this wave as the
low-levels are fairly dry, some light rain may reach the surface
through this evening, but no impacts are expected.
Low pressure will be moving into SE Idaho and western Wyoming,
greatly reducing the area of high pressure that's sat there and
brought about the gap winds the past few days, so no strong winds
are expected this weekend. Another wave will quickened and will
swing across mostly Wyoming on Saturday, but continue to bring
snow to the west and southwest facing slopes of the mountains, and
maybe light rain to rain/snow mix to locations along the MT-WY
border of south-central MT.
Finally, looking at the prominent upper trough and cutoff low for
early next week. Confidence has increased for this system to
follow the more southern track. What this means is confidence is
highest for most of MT to not get any snow Sunday and Monday, with
the expected being, once again, along the MT-WY border, and
especially in far SE MT. Currently, Sheridan County, WY still has
the best chance to see accumulating snow as the wrap around of the
upper low, although far away, could still bring some usplope-
included ascent into the foothills of the Bighorn Mountains.
Although impacts for our forecast area look to be minimal to
nothing, there is still a small chance for this to track further
north, and even if it doesn't, will impact travel along US 212 and
I-90 going towards Rapid City, so stay cautious if traveling
through those locations on Sunday & Monday.
Vertz
Monday through Friday...
Models continue to trend S with the precipitation early next week,
with the GEFS QPF further N into the forecast area than the other
models. The split trough will be over the region on Monday with
the strongest energy over the 4-corners region. On Tuesday,
Clusters had the trough shifting ENE with a ridge trying to build
over top of the trough. The NBM 48 hr probabilities of snowfall
greater than 2 inches by 00Z Wednesday (starting 00Z Mon.) were
zero for KBIL and 30 percent for KSHR. Probabilities for amounts
over 4 inches were less than 10 percent over the extreme southern
fringe of the area through 00Z Wednesday. For the forecast, had a
30% chance of snow over Sheridan County and over the SE corner of
MT Mon. morning, with PoPs decreasing from NW to SE through Mon.
night. Tuesday will be dry.
Clusters had some form of upper ridging over the area on Wednesday
with the NBM continuing dry weather. The Clusters varied between
upper ridging and SW flow for Thursday. Forecast had a 30% chance
of snow over the SW mountains. 20-30% PoPs spread further E Thu.
night into KBIL and KSHR. Models showed a shortwave or upper
ridging for Friday and the NBM had PoPs in the 20s over much of
the area. Temps will be in the 30s, with 20s E of Rosebud County
through Thursday. Highs are expected to reach the lower 40s in
some areas on Friday, although there was a lot of uncertainty in
the pattern for this period. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail over the area through tonight. However, expect
areas of mountain obscuration, especially over the
Beartooth/Absarokas. Localized MVFR conditions are possible in
areas of light snow tonight. A better chance of snow moves into
the area, reaching as far E as a K3HT-KBIL-KSHR line Saturday
morning. MVFR will be more widespread in this area of snow. Expect
widespread obscurations over the Beartooths/Absarokas with areas
of obscuration over the remainder of the mountains. Conditions
will improve Sat. afternoon. Gusty winds in KLVM will decrease
tonight. Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/042 025/038 022/036 017/034 017/034 019/037 025/040
23/S 11/E 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 22/S
LVM 027/038 021/032 016/032 011/030 012/031 017/038 025/038
35/S 11/E 10/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 32/S
HDN 018/039 019/035 016/033 011/030 010/031 009/033 016/037
12/S 11/E 21/B 10/U 00/B 00/B 22/S
MLS 017/035 017/029 012/025 010/024 008/025 006/026 013/032
20/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/S
4BQ 020/038 022/035 018/031 014/030 011/031 012/033 017/036
01/B 00/E 22/S 10/B 00/U 00/U 12/S
BHK 016/032 015/025 010/023 008/022 007/024 007/027 012/030
20/U 00/B 11/E 00/B 00/B 00/U 11/B
SHR 019/038 020/033 016/030 010/030 009/031 010/035 018/037
13/S 23/S 43/S 11/B 00/U 00/B 23/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
Please see Episode write-up.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche, Absaroka / Beartooth Mountains | 2022-12-31 | 21 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062787.