A tight west/east surface pressure gradient resulted in high wind gusts across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A tight west/east surface pressure gradient resulted in high wind gusts across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 24, 1:38 PM MST, 11 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
138 PM MST Sat Dec 24 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday Night...
Satellite imagery shows a dirty ridge axis over the northern
Rockies. Westerly winds have pushed out to Treasure and Big Horn
Counties at this time while easterly winds still prevail over the
eastern sections and those river valleys. Temps have warmed into
the 40s in the west and 20s as far east as Hysham, while single
digits above zero can be found from Forsyth east. Lower elevations
in the east should continue to see gradual moderation.
Wind issues...By this evening, a Pacific shortwave moving thru
southern Canada will induce another period of lee side pressure
falls while 700mb flow increases to around 50 knots. Wind advisory
from 6 pm to 9 am Sunday still looks good for western foothills.
Local wind gust tool now shows a 65% probability of 58+ mph gusts
at Livingston beginning this evening. Peak winds should be
finished by 12z or 13Z. Gusty west winds will transition to the
remaining western foothills before daybreak tomorrow. It looks as
if a near surface inversion will prevent strongest winds from
surfacing, but 50+ mph gusts are possible at Big Timber and
Harlowton. Strong winds will be just off the surface over the east
late tonight into Sunday morning as shortwave flattens the ridge
over us. By Sunday afternoon and evening, soundings indicate there
may be enough mixing to get strong NW winds to the surface over
the eastern plains. While 850mb winds of 50-55 knots are progged
over the east (especially Custer, Fallon and Carter Counties) it
is uncertain if the snow pack induced inversion will hold, but it
does appear from soundings that at least wind gusts of 40+ mph are
a good bet to occur later in the afternoon. This could produce
some blowing snow issues as temps fall back below freezing late
behind the upper shortwave passage. We have issued a high wind
watch from 6 am to 8 pm Sunday for Custer, Carter and Fallon with
secondary mention of blowing/drifting snow.
Overnight freezing rain threat...Forcing from aforementioned
Pacific wave will be much greater to our north, but there is a
short- lived opportunity for light rain/freezing rain moving west
to east tonight...as warmer air overruns the lingering cold
surface conditions east of the foothills. Conditional probability
for freezing rain is above 50% from Musselshell County to Fallon
County as this narrow band of precip shifts quickly through our
eastern zones overnight. The main issue is if and how much precip
will fall? All indications are for a brief passage of at most a
spotty hundredth of an inch...with any chance of precip ending in
our east by 12z. Once the warm front passes, a shift to west winds
should push temps above freezing...another reason to expect
minimal impacts. Nonetheless will need to watch this.
Sunday precipitation...Decent frontogenesis band is progged to set
up under strong upper N/NW jet behind the exiting shortwave as
cooler air back doors in from the northeast Sunday afternoon. As
usual, models are having a hard time solving where this band will
set up. High-resolution models have it initially set up from the
Snowies to Sheridan County, but the GFS has trended it closer to
the western foothills thus bypassing Billings. We have trended
PoP's closer to the high resolution models for now as this is a
typical climatology for these bands. Any precip should be rain at
the lower elevations with snow in the high country and higher
foothills. Forcing and moisture decrease Sunday evening leaving
just some lingering rain and snow showers near the higher terrain.
No highlights or significant impacts are anticipated with the
precipitation Sunday.
Temperatures...The surface trof is expected to stay pretty far to
the west thru the day so it is possible that warming doesn't
extend quite as far east as models currently suggest. Tonight
will see downslope warming and be milder. A wind shift to the
W-NW should push warmer air across our eastern plains early on
Christmas Day...eroding the arctic air mass for good. Shortwave
dropping into the northern plains will introduce some cold
advection to our east Sunday afternoon & night. BT
Monday through Saturday
The extended forecast (beyond Tuesday) will be driven by weak
troughing over the western CONUS, no large systems are currently on
the horizon for the forecast area.
Ridging builds across the region on Monday then breaks down on
Tuesday as a shortwave moves through. This wave will bring rain and
snow chances to the area, with accumulating mountain snow likely
(76% chance for >=1 inch at Cooke City, MT late Tue into Wed). Winds
will be an additional forecast concern in the wind prone gap areas
such as Livingston. There is a high chance (60 to 70%) of wind gusts
between 50 and 58 mph at times from late Monday morning through mid
afternoon Tuesday. The ridge then pushes east Tuesday into
Wednesday. There is a chance (39%) that Billings could exceede a
high temperature of 50 degrees on Tuesday afternoon.
WPC clusters are showing some agreement in a broad and weak trough
developing over the western CONUS with perhaps weak zonal flow at
times from Wednesday into next week. Given this pattern, no strong
storm systems are on the horizon and temperatures look to hover
around normal values for this time of year. Also, there will likely
be weak shortwaves moving through the broader trough at times
bringing chances for precipitation especially over the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected across the forecast area
the rest of the day and into the night. However, mountains may
become increasingly obscured at times by evening as snow showers
develop over the high country. There is a slight risk of freezing
precipitation over portions of east central Montana tonight after
03Z. This may impact KMLS and KBHK overnight. Surface winds will
increase from the west/southwest in the foothills after 01Z
affecting KLVM with gusts over 45 kt possible, and spread to K6S0
and K3HT after 09Z. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/043 025/042 034/047 032/044 024/038 023/038 024/037
23/R 10/B 02/R 22/O 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 034/042 032/045 037/046 032/040 022/037 022/037 023/036
23/R 10/N 16/O 42/S 21/B 23/S 32/S
HDN 016/040 018/039 027/044 028/042 018/035 015/035 018/034
25/O 10/B 01/E 22/O 11/B 00/B 11/B
MLS 000/039 009/034 023/038 030/037 017/029 013/028 016/028
21/N 00/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 014/042 015/039 028/043 030/040 020/034 017/034 018/033
22/R 00/B 00/B 21/B 21/B 00/B 00/B
BHK 901/037 006/035 027/040 029/037 017/032 015/030 014/027
31/N 00/B 00/B 21/B 11/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 020/042 022/044 029/046 027/041 018/035 017/036 018/035
15/O 20/B 01/E 12/O 21/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MST
Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MST SAT DEC 24 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0626 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE LIVINGSTON 45.70N 110.45W
12/24/2022 M53.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS
&&
TRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
912 PM MST SAT DEC 24 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0853 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE LIVINGSTON 45.70N 110.45W
12/24/2022 M62.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS
&&
LTPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1027 PM MST SAT DEC 24 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NE WILSALL 46.16N 110.38W
12/24/2022 M58.00 MPH PARK MT MESONET
&&
JKLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1107 PM MST SAT DEC 24 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1026 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE LIVINGSTON 45.70N 110.45W
12/24/2022 M69.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS
&&
JKLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted to 63 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062785.