As a cold front moved through the region, it triggered showers and storms. Some of the storms became severe with reports of damaging winds, large hail and a brief tornado.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
As a cold front moved through the region, it triggered showers and storms. Some of the storms became severe with reports of damaging winds, large hail and a brief tornado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 11:44 AM CST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1244 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 An upper-level trough is expected to gradually amplify as it traverses the Central Plains into Midwest today, above a cold front that will shift southward and be draped along/near I-70 by mid- morning. The warm sector entrenching much of the CWA ahead of this cold front early this morning has remained mostly characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid-60s F and MUCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. This nature of the warm sector and the latest HREF indicating higher probabilities (50 to 70 percent) of SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg this afternoon than previous runs decreases previous concerns of moisture and instability availability. In fact, many CAMs indicate pockets of MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg being realized with this afternoon with some heating beneath relatively steep mid-level lapse rates despite possible anvil offshoot from upstream thunderstorms. Therefore, concerns previously discussed regarding moisture availability and instability have decreased. However, there remains uncertainty in exactly how convection will evolve today. CAMs continue to indicate that showers and thunderstorms will continue developing across southern NE/northwestern MO at the nose of a LLJ overrunning the cold front, and then organize into one or more MCSs tracking generally southeast through the morning into afternoon. The exact track of these MCSs remains unclear, particularly how much of their motion will be dominated by west-northwesterly deep layer flow vs. propagation more sharply south-southeastward along a weak theta-e gradient across southwestern MO. The latter would favor the MCSs missing the CWA to the southwest but the former would favor the MCSs tracking along and south of I-70. Regardless of the MCS tracks, additional showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon/early evening along/south of the cold front as surface moisture convergence increases and ascent leading the upper-level trough arrives. An arriving mid-level jet streak will cause deep layer wind shear (mostly unidirectional) to also increase to above 30 kt through late afternoon. This wind shear, combined with the aforementioned instability should support at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the CWA with a potential mixed mode of linear bowing segments and splitting supercells. However, a more concentrated threat for severe thunderstorms is possible if one of the MCSs can track through the CWA. The main severe hazards will be damaging winds and large hail, with any tornado threat remaining low due to relatively high LCLs and lack of strong low-level wind shear anticipated. The severe threat will be greatest from 17z to 01z (12 to 8 pm) along and south of I-70. Some post-frontal showers will be possible through the first half of tonight, but dry conditions are expected to return on Monday. Low- level CAA tonight into the first half of Monday will also establish a much more seasonable airmass across the Midwest with high temps in the 70s F and dewpoints around 50 F. Pfahler .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 Global model guidance are in agreement that upper-level flow across the central CONUS will become quasi-zonal above a baroclinic zone stretching across the Midwest. This flow is progged to be navigated by a series of low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs, but model guidance still differ in their depictions of the timing of these features. There is loose consensus that the first shortwave trough will traverse the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday, accompanied by a northward advancement of the baroclinic zone as a warm front through the CWA. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely to the north of this warm front. An arriving EML plume and increasing moisture could also support a strong to severe thunderstorm with large hail during this time. A pattern that bears monitoring for severe thunderstorms will continue Wednesday through Friday as ascent from the passing shortwave troughs interact with a moist and possibly unstable warm sector along and south of the baroclinic zone oscillating and then likely pushing through as a cold front around Friday. Temps during this timeframe are also favored to warm to above average within the warm sector. Pfahler && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will progress eastward across the area through this evening. The cold front has just passed through KJEF and is about to move through KSUS/KSTL. By 1900 UTC, the boundary should be just south of KCPS. With frontal passage, light/variable winds turn out of the north/northwest. Given the frontal timing, have VCTS at KJEF just right at the beginning of the TAF period as well as KCPS for a couple of hours this afternoon. Thunder chances behind the front, while not negligible, appear very low so kept mention out of KSUS/KCOU/KSTL. After the threat for any rain moves out of the area this evening, decreasing cloudiness along with light northwest winds are expected. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 404 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-160915- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 404 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely for portions of the area today. A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe this afternoon and evening along and south of I-70. The main hazards with severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms for much of the region late Tuesday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Pfahler
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:38 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down part of a large tree across Route 185 west of Sullivan.
Thunderstorm winds blew down a power pole along Berry Road, about 3 miles north of Bonne Terre.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1024206, 1024209, 1024213.