A cluster of storms moving out of Oklahoma moved across the northeastern quadrant of the CWA. Strong damaging winds occurred with the leading edge storms, but trailing storms produced hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A cluster of storms moving out of Oklahoma moved across the northeastern quadrant of the CWA. Strong damaging winds occurred with the leading edge storms, but trailing storms produced hail. A destructive area of 95 mph winds damaged much of Honey Grove in eastern Fannin County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 7:37 PM CST, 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 837 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The early afternoon forecast remains on track (see complete discussion below). Therefore, only minor adjustments were necessary with this update. Persistent upper level ridging across the Southwest and Southern Plains continues to challenge temperature records across the region. As of 04:30 PM CDT, the max observed temperature at DFW is 97 degrees. This breaks the previous record high for this date set in 1925 (and tied in 1978 and 1993). Waco also had a record day, with a daily max temperature of 96 degrees which ties the record set in 1925. The main focus in the near term continues to be the incoming cold front and cluster of convection that has developed near and along an outflow boundary drifting southwest from the early day convection in SE KS/NE OK/NW AR. The best chances for severe thunderstorms remain confined primarily north and east of the DFW Metroplex as semi-discrete cells and/or clusters move across the Red River Valley between 8PM and midnight. So far the supercells that have developed in central and eastern Oklahoma have remained loosely clustered, though we are beginning to see cell mergers and upscale growth as was signaled in early afternoon high resolution model guidance. Additionally, new cells have been developing south and west of ongoing convection which may bring the potential for strong to severe storms west of the Interstate 35 corridor. Waning daytime heating, destabilization, and a 60-70 knot jet embedded in the northwest flow aloft has resulted in strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG) and 40+ KT of effective shear supportive of multiple threats including large hail in any thunderstorms that manage to remain discrete/semi- discrete as well as damaging winds associated and embedded bowing segments. The severe threat is still expected to diminish the further south these storms track, with residual showers and thunderstorms completely dissipating before daybreak. 12 Previous Discussion: /This afternoon through Monday/ Temperatures at this hour are running a degree or two warmer than yesterday over the central and eastern zones, but are 5 to 12 degrees warmer across the western zones. As a result the western CWA should easily top 100 degrees this afternoon, with some spots reaching 105 degrees. Farther east, have lowered temps a degree or two from previous forecast, but still a record high looks likely at DFW (old record 94) and a record is possible at Waco (old record 96). Fortunately although temperatures will be unseasonably hot, humidity will be low enough to result in heat indices near or below actual air temperatures. South winds and clear skies will prevail this afternoon into early evening with quiet weather in North/Central Texas prevailing - however that will change for some by mid to late evening. At the upper levels, moderate northerly flow prevails and this is helping to send a cold front southward through the Plains. The front is meeting an unstable and uncapped airmass across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and convection should erupt and continue to drop southward this evening. The first sign of the changing weather will be increasing high clouds across northeast Texas, eventually spilling southwestward into Central Texas by midnight. These high clouds will spoil viewing of the peak of the total lunar eclipse (around 11 pm) across the northeast zones, and possibly much of North Texas. While the forecast may say partly cloudy across the central zones, these will be cirrus and cirrostratus clouds. In order to see the best part of peak totality (when the moon turns red) clear skies are required or else it will be too dim and hidden behind those clouds or really blurry. Central Texas skywatchers should still get a good show before these clouds move in. The eastern Oklahoma convection will cross the Red River around 9 or 10 pm, riding a fast moving outflow boundary that may contain damaging wind gusts. Although the airmass across North Texas becomes increasingly stable for surface based convection, steep lapse rates just above the surface, and sufficient low level moisture content will yield elevated instability for scattered showers and storms primarily east of I-35 through the late evening and overnight hours. In general the CAMs are in good agreement in a robust cluster of storms impacting the northeast CWA, then weakening, with an outflow boundary racing south ahead of the storms and kicking off scattered new convection overnight. Thus have nudged PoPs up to 30-50% across the eastern zones, tapering down to 10-20% across the central tier (along the I-35 corridor). Because there is some easily accessible CAPE (little to no CIN with parcels near 850 mb), any mesoscale lift produced by the outflow boundary or other chaotic vertical motions resulting from the more vigorous convection to the east could result in isolated storms popping up. That is why the mention of isolated showers and storms has been dragged westward even though models are dry in this region. One will also notice the SPC convective forecast has Marginal risk drawn back farther west as well. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts, primarily across the northeast zones, but some marginally severe hail will be possible as well. The overnight convection and outflow boundary should effectively move the cold front into the CWA by morning, and that should result in a cooler day tomorrow across North Texas with some mid and upper 80s forecast over the northeast zones. However near and to the south of the front it will be above normal with highs in the 90s. Late in the afternoon the frontal boundary will wash out with southerly flow prevailing. Without a focus for convective initiation and the upper ridge nudging in from the west, it should be dry areawide. If for some reason the storms fail to materialize this evening and tonight, then there will be no assistance from an outflow boundary to get the cold front this far south and Monday high temperatures will be much warmer than forecast. TR.92 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022/ /Monday Night Onward/ Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue through the work week across North and Central Texas, with record breaking high temperatures expected most days. High temperatures each day will warm into the upper 90s, with areas west of the I-35 corridor warming into the 100-105 degree range. To put the heat wave into perspective, average high temperatures in mid May are usually in the mid 80s and average high temperatures in late June and early July are in the mid 90s. The early arrival of the summertime heat means necessary precautions should be taken to prevent heat related illnesses. The upper level ridge that was centered west of the region will break down and the upper level pattern will become more zonal by mid week. This shift will allow for shortwaves to traverse the Central Plains through the end of the work week. These disturbances will likely remain too far north of North and Central Texas, but dryline thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday afternoon cannot be ruled out as temperatures warm into the 103-105 degree range across the Big Country each afternoon. An upper level trough will be digging into the Plains by Friday and send a cold front southward. The forecast for the weekend remains uncertain as the evolution and timing of the front varies among guidance. If the front is able to reach North and Central Texas, rain/storm chances will increase over the weekend. Garcia && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Concerns: Thunderstorms moving through the DFW TRACON overnight and the potential for variable gusty winds INVOF convection VFR conditions prevail will southerly winds around 10-15 KTS with higher gusts possible. A cold front which has ignited convection across OK is expected to push into portions of the DFW TRACON this evening. Thunderstorms have developed along a southwestward moving outflow boundary ahead of the cold front. New convection continues to develop on the western flank of ongoing convection, along the outflow, bringing the threat for showers/storms further south and west through portions of the DFW Metroplex. A mention of TSRA has been added at DFW/DAL from 16/03Z-16/05Z to reflect this increasing potential with VCTS through 16/09Z. There is still a chance that isolated showers/storms develop even further west than indicated by recent model runs, so we continue to carry a mention of VCSH at Waco (from 16/08Z-16/11Z) and the remaining Metroplex TAF sites (from 16/05Z to 16/10Z). Winds may also pose a challenge as they are likely to briefly turn northeasterly as the outflow sweeps through the area becoming strong and gusty at times, particularly INVOF convection. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken and diminish the further south they move through eastern North and Central Texas. Winds are likely to return to the southeast briefly before the weak cold front brings another wind shift to the TAF sites prior to sunrise. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 93 73 98 73 / 20 5 5 0 0 Waco 69 97 70 98 71 / 10 0 5 0 0 Paris 65 87 68 91 71 / 50 5 0 0 0 Denton 67 91 69 98 72 / 20 5 5 0 0 McKinney 66 89 69 95 72 / 30 5 0 0 0 Dallas 68 92 74 97 74 / 20 5 0 0 0 Terrell 67 90 70 95 71 / 30 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 68 93 71 96 72 / 30 5 0 0 0 Temple 69 98 69 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 68 93 69 102 72 / 10 0 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 700 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161230- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 700 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible this evening and tonight along and east of the I-35 corridor, however the highest chance of severe storms is across the region northeast of a Sherman to Sulphur Springs line. The main threat will be damaging winds and quarter size hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Abnormally hot temperatures will persist throughout North and Central Texas. Take the necessary precautions to avoid any heat related illnesses. Storm chances will increase Saturday with the arrival of a cold front. We'll continue to monitor the threat for severe weather in the coming days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports may be needed northeast of the DFW Metroplex this evening.
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:19 UTC.
20 hail, 17 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple reports of powerlines and trees down across the county.
Multiple reports of trees down on power lines across the City of Sherman.
Trees were knocked down and power outages were reported between Bonham and Telephone.
Very strong straight-line winds associated with a line of severe thunderstorms produced considerable damage over portions of eastern Fannin County Sunday evening. The most significant damage occurred in and around Honey Grove, where winds of up to 95 mph produced widespread tree and light structural roof and fa ade damage. A small wood framed church in Honey Grove was pushed approximately two feet off its foundation, and encountered substantial roof damage. A nearby metal-poled traffic sign was bent horizontally to the ground. Peak straight line winds of 95 mph were associated with these indicators. Numerous large trees and branches were snapped and/or uprooted in and near Honey Grove.
The metal covering over a house roof was partially peeled off.
Trees down around Ladonia.
Nickel to golf ball sized hail was reported in Muenster.
A home sustained damage on FM 64 southeast of Pecan Gap. The roof was damaged and water entered the home.
A large tree snapped and fell on the end of a manufactured home, damaging the roof of the home.
Large trees were reported down along FM 904 on the Hunt County side of the road.
Reported via mPing.
Trees were reported down along FM 900 from Sulphur Bluff to Saltillo. An old barn also suffered some roof damage.
A camper was rolled and destroyed in high thunderstorm winds.
Report of tree limbs down and power outages via mPing.
Trees were uprooted to the east of Wills Point.
Uprooted trees were reported in Gun Barrel City.
Nickel to quarter sized hail was reported at Roundrock Trail and W Parker Road in Plano.
Quarter sized hail reported just east of Eldorado Parkway and Preston Road.
Quarter sized hail reported at Custer Rd and McDermott Rd.
Golf ball sized hail was reported near Allen.
Quarter sized hail was reported 3 miles north-northwest of Gainesville.
Quarter to half dollar sized hail was reported 5 miles west of Collinsville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1032205, 1032200, 1032219, 1032202, 1032206, 1032212, 1032217, 1032290, 1032222, 1032253, 1032255, 1032264, 1032265, 1032267, 1032287, 1032289, 1032291, 1032288, 1032292, 1032297, 1032294, 1032298, 1032299, 1032300, 1032302, 1032304, 1032305, 1032306, 1032307, 1032308, 1032309, 1032310, 1032313, 1032311, 1032316, 1032318, 1032319.