An MCV moved across southern Missouri during the day on July 2nd. Numerous showers and storms developed as it moved east across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
An MCV moved across southern Missouri during the day on July 2nd. Numerous showers and storms developed as it moved east across the region. Some of the storms became severe producing damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 11:22 AM CST, 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Latest surface analysis is showing a front extending from southern Kansas through southern Missouri and far southern Illinois into the Ohio Valley. Latest radar mosaic is showing clusters of showers and thunderstorms north of the front from Kansas into Indiana caused by a combination of weak lift from mid level disturbances moving through the zonal flow aloft paired with low level moisture convergence cause by weak 925-850mb southerly flow. The most concentrated area of thunderstorms is currently over eastern Kansas which the RAP/NAM show a resulting MCV moving east across the CWA later this morning/afternoon. Some CAMS solutions including the HRRR have thunderstorms redeveloping across central and southeast Missouri this afternoon in advance of this feature as the HREF is showing MUCAPES in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with deep layer shear around 30 knots. This will be enough for isolated strong to severe storms capable producing wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. In addition, with PWATS of 2.0" and deep warm cloud layers, some heavy downpours will also be possible. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight into Sunday, particularly over the southern half of the CWA which will be closer the front. The best chance will be late tonight into early Sunday when low level moisture convergence increases across the area again. Highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s behind the front with mainly cloudy skies. Highs on Sunday will be back close to normal with more sun. Britt .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Operational global models and their ensembles are in general agreement that the upper high that has been over the lower Mississippi Valley will build north into the Mid South early next week. This will act to push the surface front north of the CWA through midweek. PoPs from the EPS/GEFS are relatively low during this time period, and are focused over the northern CWA closer to the front. There is decent agreement between the GFS/ECMWF that a trough will move through the Great Lakes by late week which will act to bring the front south into the CWA, so will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the CWA Thursday into Friday. By next weekend, the EPS and GEFS are showing the upper high shifting westward into the Rockies with northwesterly flow over Midwest. Heat will build across the area from the early to middle part of next week with 850mb temperatures climbing from 18-20C on Monday to 23-25C on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in highs climbing through the 90s Monday through Wednesday combined with dewpoints in the 70s resulting in heat indices of 100 to 105 on Monday and at or above 105 degrees on Tuesday into Thursday. This trend is reflected well in the NBM temperature plumes which shows temperatures warming up early next week with little spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles through Wednesday as the front lifts north of the area. Then there is a slow cooling and a slight spread in the plumes indicating small differences in the ensemble solutions as the front moves back south into the CWA. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to impact terminals along the I-70 corridor through the afternoon today. While the deepest and most significant convection is expected to largely remain south of these areas across the Ozarks, periodic visibility reductions and MVFR ceilings can be expected through at least the remainder of the afternoon and possibly into the early evening. A lull in convective activity is expected during the late evening and overnight, but there is some potential for redeveloping convection early in the morning, with additional rounds possible continuing through the day Sunday. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding when and where this convection will occur, if it does at all, and as such we've opted to avoid using a prevailing SH or TS for this activity at this time. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 429 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-030930- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 429 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms over the area tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this morning and this afternoon over parts of central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. Damaging winds up to 60 mph are the primary threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The chance for thunderstorms continues Sunday through Friday across parts of the area. Dangerous levels of heat will return early next week with widespread heat indices of 105 degrees or greater possible Tuesday into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late this morning and this afternoon over parts of central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. Britt
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 129 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:47 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees on the north side of Fredericktown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1042792.