As an upper trough moved eastward into New England on July 2, 2022, the eastern half of Pennsylvania remained in the right entrance region of the trough, promoting weak ascent in the atmosphere. A cold front slowly moved southeastward across Pennsylvania, with a prefrontal trough over the lower Susquehanna Valley acting as a primary trigger for afternoon convection.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
As an upper trough moved eastward into New England on July 2, 2022, the eastern half of Pennsylvania remained in the right entrance region of the trough, promoting weak ascent in the atmosphere. A cold front slowly moved southeastward across Pennsylvania, with a prefrontal trough over the lower Susquehanna Valley acting as a primary trigger for afternoon convection. Several discrete and multicell thunderstorms developed within a narrow corridor around the prefrontal trough, in an environment with 2000 J/kg CAPE and up to 1200 J/kg of DCAPE. Deep layer 0-6 km shear of up to 35 kts combined with the instability to promote briefly rotating updrafts with transient supercell characteristics for at least one thunderstorm, which produced ping pong ball size hail. There were also several reports of damaging straight line winds associated with downbursts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 1:08 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 208 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushing southeast from northwest PA will trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening from the south central Alleghenies into the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV). Clearing skies, dry weather and lower humidity will overspread the area from northwest to southeast behind the front this afternoon through tonight. The rest of the July 4th weekend will be pleasantly warm with comfortable humidity. Thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 135PM/1735Z: Strong heating is underway across most of CPA with cumulus field gradually expanding per visible satellite loop. One patch of mid level debris/cirrus should exit the northern part of the LSV by 19Z. Continued destabilization through the rest of the afternoon will support scattered Tstorm development along/ahead of NW-SE oriented sfc cold front located just northwest of KOYM to KN38 at 17Z. SWOMCD #1323 issued at 1216 PM covers a portion of the LSV with 80% probability of a severe TSTM watch. This region is on the southern fringe of stronger midlevel flow associated with the deep mid/upper-level trough across eastern Canada. Effective shear of 30-40 kt across southeast PA will support the potential for a couple of organized clusters and/or marginal supercells, capable of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Convection shifts to the southeast of the CWA tonight as the frontal boundary pushes to the south of the MD line. This would favor dry conditions for most fireworks displays across the northwest 3/4 of CPA early tonight. Cooler/less humid air will continue to filter into the area overnight via light NNW post frontal flow with minTs trending ~10F lower across the board (24hr deltas) bottoming in the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure and lower PWAT air should provide a really nice stretch of 4th of July weather Sunday through Independence Day. Pleasant and warm conditions expected on Sunday with lower humidity will be followed by a relatively cool/refreshing night Low temps Sunday night will be a few degs below climo with the usual cold spots the northern tier possibly dipping into the mid-upper 40s. We trended lower vs. NBM with dewpoints during the day Sunday and trimmed a few degs from MinT Sunday night. Stayed close to NBM on Monday with an eye to the northwest Monday night-AM Tue with potential for convection to spill southeast from the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong ridging to the west through the extended, will generally keep region in a northwest flow through much of the extended period. This will keep temperatures on the warm, but not hot side, with both high and low temperatures running a few degrees above average. This pattern should keep the deep moisture out of the area, making for more comfortable conditions. Will have to watch for convective systems in the NW flow through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front has moved into northwest PA early this afternoon and will slowly trudge to the southeast through the evening hours. A worked over atmosphere from yesterday's storms has kept SHRA development to a minimum. The focus for showewrs and storms will be over southeast PA this afternoon as the front approaches. Placed VCTS in KLNS with no definite idea on actual location of development. All sites will go VFR overnight and this will continue through the end of the forecast period with light winds from the northwest. Outlook... Sun aftn-Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Tue-Wed...Chance of a shower or storm. && .CLIMATE... June 2022 MDT: The monthly average temperature at Harrisburg was 72.5F which is equal to the 1991-2020 30yr mean. Total rainfall was 4.31" or +0.33" above normal. IPT: The monthly average temperature at Williamsport was 69.8F or -0.7F below the 1991-2020 30yr mean. Total rainfall was 2.69" or -1.16" below normal. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Tyburski AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE...Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-045-031915- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton- 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ036-056>059-063-031915- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches and minor flooding of poor drainage areas is possible where a few storms impact the same locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ026>028-034-035-042-046-049>053-031915- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ064>066-031915- Adams-York-Lancaster- 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
PAZ065-066-021930-
Lancaster PA-York PA-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LANCASTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Columbia, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Columbia, Millersville, Willow Street, Mountville,
Wrightsville, Windsor, Yorkana, Brogue, Smithville, Shenks Ferry,
Holtwood, Sunnyburn, Safe Harbor, Susquehanna Trails, Lampeter,
Conestoga, East Prospect, Washington Boro and Refton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3993 7662 4005 7657 4003 7618 3973 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 283DEG 17KT 3996 7652
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SteinbuglThe Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 135 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:39 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 6 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires west of Buck.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter to ping-pong ball sized hail in East Drumore Township.
A severe thunderstorm produced nickel to quarter sized hail on Boyle Road just north of the Mason-Dixon line.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires on Boyle Road near Middle Creek Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires along Knight Road south of Gettysburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 70 mph removed the roofs of two barns and caused the collapse of an outbuilding on the 700 block of Solomon Road south of Gettysburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires along Route 134 south of Gettysburg.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter sized hail in McSherrytown.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter sized hail in Wrightsville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along East Front Street in Marietta.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 70 mph knocked down trees onto seven houses near Wrightsville.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter sized hail near Marietta.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto a church on Iron Bridge Road near Kinderhook Road. A tree also came down on a shed and a truck nearby.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter sized hail in Salunga-Landisville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along Northridge Road west of Landisville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto a house in East Hempfield Township, pulling down power lines and causing two propane tanks to leak.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1029267, 1027881, 1027882, 1029268, 1029269, 1029278, 1029270, 1027883, 1027884, 1029271, 1029273, 1027885, 1029276, 1027886, 1029272, 1029275.