What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 1:56 PM EST, 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 1:56 PM EST, 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Colin will slowly move northward along the
Carolina Coast and weaken over the next several hours with
the deeper moisture associated with the system staying east
of our area. A weak cold front will then settle south over
the western Carolinas on Sunday. A moist, summertime pattern
will help produce unstable conditions and allow numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area each
afternoon and evening during the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 pm EDT Saturday: The atmosphere has thus far not
destabilized to quite the degree that was earlier expected, so while
deep convection is blossoming across primarily the Blue Ridge
escarpment this afternoon, the bulk of the activity is limited to
showers at this point. Continued destabilization and maturing of the
convective activity should continue to yield increasing coverage and
intensity, with a couple of pulse severe storms remaining a
possibility. As outflow boundaries move off the high terrain and
interact with a moist and unstable air mass over the foothills and
Piedmont, isolated to scattered convection should develop there
during mid-to-late afternoon, with convection expected to diminish
fairly quickly this evening. A slightly drier boundary layer east of
the mtns...developing largely as a result of a weak NW downslope
flow should primarily limit any early morning fog and low stratus to
the mountain valleys.
Heights will lower a bit within the westerlies to our north on
Sunday as a vorticity max moves through the northern Mid-Atlantic.
This will result in the leading edge of a weak frontal boundary to
sag into the forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. This combined with
the presence of a pre-frontal/lee/thermal trough along with the
usual terrain effects and robust instability should yield higher-
than-normal coverage of convection across the entire forecast area
Sunday afternoon. Although shear will remain quite weak, the degree
of expected coverage should yield a higher threat of pulse severe
storms Sunday afternoon, hence the SPC Marginal Risk. Temps are
expected to be a couple of degrees above climo through the
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z
on Monday with flattened upper ridging spread across the SE CONUS
and steeper ridging still in place to our west. For the duration
of the period, broad upper trofing will persist well to our north
over Quebec and help suppress the upper ridge over the Southeast.
At the sfc, the Bermuda High will keep moist, SLY flow over the
region thru most the period. We're still expecting a weak, moist
sfc boundary to settle over the fcst area from the north on Sunday
and essentially stall out over our CWA or just south of it late
Sunday into Monday. This should suppress the SLY component of the
low-lvl flow at least somewhat on Monday, however profiles will
remain moist with the sfc boundary likely enhancing convection
late Sunday/early Monday. Thus, SPC still has most of our CWA in
a Marginal Risk area for Day 2 and WPC has nearly all of our CWA
in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Day 2. Otherwise,
we can expect scattered to widespread diurnal convection each day
with the best coverage generally over the higher terrain and Upstate.
Temps should remain near-normal, if not slightly above, thru the
period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with flattened upper ridging still in place over our
region and very broad upper trofing well to our north over far
SE Canada. The upper-lvl pattern is not expected to change much
thru the period, with broad upper trofing persisting well to our
north and upper ridging persisting to our west. At the sfc, the
Bermuda High will remain in place to our east keeping moist, SLY
flow over the region for most of the period. Another moist sfc
boundary is expected move into the fcst area from the NW late
Tues into Wed which should help enhance deep convection. The bndy
should eventually wash out to our south late Wed/early Thurs, with
weak SLY return flow commencing for the rest of the period. Thus,
no major changes were made to the sensible fcst with above-normal
diurnal PoPs each day through the period. The persistent moist
profiles will enhance the potential for locally heavy rain and
flooding each day. Temps will start out about a category above
climatology on Wednesday. This coupled with dewpts in the 70s
could produce Advisory lvl heat indices across our lower terrain.
Temps are expected to moderate a few degrees by Friday and cool
just below climo over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Deep convection, mainly in the form of
showers is blossoming across the high terrain this afternoon.
Coverage is expected to expand sufficiently to support a tempo for
TSRA at KAVL through late afternoon. Convection is expected to drift
southeast into the foothills and Piedmont late this afternoon into
the early evening, but coverage is expected to diminish as this
occurs. Therefore, have opted to limit the convective mention to
VCSH/VCTS at all other sites, but tempos may need to be added on
short notice as conditions evolve. Convection should diminish this
evening, giving way to primarily mountain valley fog/low stratus
early Sunday morning...although can't rule out patchy areas of
restrictions outside the mountains as well. Winds will primarily be
light and variable through the period. Convection should begin to
fire again across the high terrain early Sunday afternoon,
warranting a Prob30 mention for TSRA at KAVL at the end of the
period, and at KCLT after 18Z.
Outlook: Diurnal chances of SHRA/TSRA continue through next week.
Low-end fog and or stratus restrictions will be possible each
morning, especially for any locations that received rain the
previous afternoon.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 2:58 AM EST, 11 hours 32 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
358 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-030915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
358 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the region this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may
produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall. A few of the storms could generate damaging wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph. Isolated flash flooding could also result
under slowly-moving or persistent thunderstorms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will develop again on Sunday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms continues, primarily due to the threat of
damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall and isolated flooding will
continue to be possible.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 2, 1:35 PM EST, 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
NCZ050-503-505-021900-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
McDowell, southeastern Mitchell and northwestern Burke Counties
through 300 PM EDT...
At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Spruce Pine. This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Ashford, North Cove, Woodlawn and Little Switzerland.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3593 8202 3591 8198 3593 8195 3590 8186
3578 8192 3579 8210 3595 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 100DEG 1KT 3585 8198
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 2, 2:00 PM EST, 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
NCZ063>065-SCZ102-103-106-021945-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Central Greenville SC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Transylvania, south
central Henderson, southeastern Jackson, northwestern Greenville and
northwestern Pickens Counties through 345 PM EDT...
At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Brevard, or near Dupont State Forest, moving south
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Looking Glass, Table Rock State Park,
Caesars Head State Park, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jones Gap State
Park, Dupont State Forest and Gorges State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3529 8292 3531 8290 3530 8245 3506 8244
3503 8259 3505 8260 3504 8268 3500 8275
3501 8292 3504 8292 3505 8290 3502 8302
3503 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 006DEG 14KT 3517 8266
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 2, 2:04 PM EST, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
304 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
GAZ010-SCZ101-104-021945-
Rabun GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
304 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Rabun
and central Oconee Counties through 345 PM EDT...
At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Walhalla, or over Oconee State Park, moving southeast
at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Lake Keowee, Oconee State Park, Pine Mountain and
Mountain Rest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3498 8314 3486 8290 3481 8290 3467 8307
3488 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 316DEG 10KT 3486 8310
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 2, 2:14 PM EST, 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
NCZ053-065-505-507-509-022000-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
McDowell, northwestern Rutherford, northeastern Henderson,
northwestern Polk and southeastern Buncombe Counties through 400 PM
EDT...
At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Downtown Asheville, or near Fairview In Buncombe
County, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Lake Lure,
Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Warren
Wilson College, Old Fort and Flat Rock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3556 8206 3543 8216 3529 8229 3525 8243
3559 8247 3571 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 325DEG 10KT 3553 8234
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 2, 2:20 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
NCZ035-036-056-502-504-022000-
Iredell NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
Catawba NC-
320 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Catawba, Alexander, northwestern Iredell, southeastern Caldwell and
east central Burke Counties through 400 PM EDT...
At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Lenoir, or near Hudson, moving southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Taylorsville, Lenoir, Statesville, St. Stephens, Conover,
Longview, Sawmills, Granite Falls and Valdese.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 8162 3593 8151 3601 8091 3576 8090
3568 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 308DEG 6KT 3585 8144
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CACSpecial weather statement, Jul 2, 2:21 PM EST, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
321 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
NCZ503-504-506-022000-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
321 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
McDowell and southwestern Burke Counties through 400 PM EDT...
At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Marion, or near Lake James, moving southeast at 5
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, Table Rock, Lake
James, South Mountains State Park, Nebo, Oak Hill and Dysartsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 8162 3561 8175 3561 8176 3559 8177
3559 8179 3558 8180 3558 8181 3557 8183
3574 8198 3577 8194 3578 8194 3586 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 308DEG 6KT 3575 8187
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CAC